Gale Warning 69, NWS Juneau, AK

278 
FZAK51 PAJK 041237
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-050400-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ011-050400-
GLACIER BAY-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-050400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9 FT
LATE.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-050400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-050400-
ICY STRAIT-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-050400-
CROSS SOUND-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-050400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-050400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-050400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-050400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF 
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-050400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-050400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

817 
FZAK51 PAJK 050038
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-051715-
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE ALCAN INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OUTFLOW
WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ011-051715-
GLACIER BAY-
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ012-051715-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-051715-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ021-051715-
ICY STRAIT-
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ022-051715-
CROSS SOUND-
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-051715-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF TAKU INLET. SEAS 5
FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF TAKU INLET. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-051715-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-051715-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-051715-
FREDERICK SOUND-
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.  
SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.  
SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-051715-
SUMNER STRAIT-
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.  
SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-051715-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.  
SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKST Fri Feb 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...Dry but breezy day across the panhandle especially
across the southern half. Upper level trough stationed well south
of the area with a 80 kt 500 mb jet flowing NE to SW over the
southern panhandle. This has concentrated the strongest outflow
over the southern panhandle and has resulted in some strong wind
gusts out of the N and NE in some areas (mainly interior passes
but other channeled terrain has also produced some higher gusts).
Highest gusts observed so far have been 49 kt at Zarambo Island,
38 kt at Sitka, 46 kt at Lincoln Island, and 33 kt at Wrangell.
Strong wind headlines remain up for much of the southern panhandle
through late tonight.

The wind remains the main concern for the next 24 hours. Strong
gusts in channeled terrain and out of interior passes are expected
to continue across the south tonight. Winds will start to
diminish tomorrow as the cold air mass in Canada moves off to the
east and the upper level jet weakens. Strong wind gusts are not
expected past late tonight in the southern panhandle. The other
area is the Klondike Highway and Lynn Canal. Lingering strong high
pressure in the southern Yukon has kept winds high along the
highway and Lynn Canal today. That high will gradually weaken
through the next 24 hours but pressure gradients across the north
should remain strong enough to keep strong wind gusts along the
highway and gales in Lynn Canal through tomorrow.

Temperatures will be the next concern. Clear skies tonight will
result in temps dropping due to radiational cooling particularly
in wind sheltered areas. A more stark contrast will occur for
tomorrow's highs as the stronger cold air outflow in the south
will keep temps cooler in that area while lighter winds will allow
temps to warm up more due to solar heating in the north. Ended up
using a more persistent forecast for highs in the north tomorrow
raising temps in some places by around 5 to 7 degrees.

Short range models were in good agreement today. Mainly used Nam
for guidance in the short range for the details of the outflow
that it provided.

.LONG TERM.../ Saturday night to Friday / High amplitude blocking
ridge from the Pacific to the southern Arctic Ocean Sunday into
early Monday. The ridge is cutting off to a closed feature and
shifting northwest as a short wave move southwest over the
southeast Gulf of Alaska. Also a short wave riding over the top
the ridge with moving south to the Northwest Alaskan coast late
Sunday. The upper level high will continue to support the high
pressure over the Alaskan interior and northwest Canada into
early next week. Pressure gradients lessening into Monday so the
northerly outflow continuing but not as strong through the weekend
and early next week.

Dry weather for the panhandle into early next week. Flow pattern
beginning to shift during the early part of the week with the
northeast gulf seeing a westerly onshore flow late Monday to
Tuesday. Expect low chance level POP Tuesday but slowly increasing
areas from just the coastal area to inland areas and to the
southern panhandle to a more moderate chance of light snow.

NAEFs Ensemble means for southeast Alaska showing a dry bias in
the amount of precipitable through to next weekend with a light
cooler tendency. However longer range guidance from the national
center was suggesting the light onshore flow so went with the
chance of precipitation towards the end of next week.

Forecast confidence above average through the weekend and average
after that. Only made minor changes to previous forecast package.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ026>029.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023-025.
     Strong Wind through Saturday afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031-034-035-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-032-033-036.
&&

EAL/Bezenek

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