Gale Warning 321, NWS Juneau, AK

193 
FZAK52 PAJK 310045
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-311845-
345 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure over NW Canada will shift slowly E through Sun
night. A gale force front will move NE to the central gulf Sat
night, then reach the far E gulf by Sun night.  

$$

PKZ041-311845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
345 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft in the
afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow in the
evening. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-311845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
345 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain with snow in the
evening. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 14 ft subsiding to
10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-311845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
345 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow in the
evening, then snow late. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-311845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
345 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow in
the evening, then snow late. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-311845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
345 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 KT increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 8 ft 
building to 13 ft late.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 14 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

096 
FZAK52 PAJK 311323
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
423 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-010730-
423 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure over NW Canada will shift slowly E through Sun
night. A gale force front will move into the far eastern gulf by
Sun night. Another gale force front will move into the central
gulf Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ041-010730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
423 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft. 
Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-010730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
423 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow in the morning, then rain in the 
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 12 ft subsiding to
8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-010730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
423 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Rain in the morning. Snow. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 16 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-010730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
423 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft. Snow and
rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft. 
Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-010730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
423 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft. Snow early
in the morning, then rain and snow in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 17 ft.
Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
249 PM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...According to water vapor satellite imagery, an
upper level ridge of high pressure currently extends north of
British Columbia, Canada, while a weakening shortwave low over
the southeastern gulf pushes east. This set up exemplifies a Wrex
Block pattern, with a quintessential "high over low," which has
contributed to our days of cooler temperatures and lack of
precipitation. This pattern has also provided us with the offshore
flow, where dry and cold continental Canadian air has been the
source for our air mass. At the surface, a low associated with the
shortwave over the gulf has helped in tightening the gradient
between it and a very strong surface high over Canada.
Subsequently, this has provided very strong winds in certain
areas, mainly through Lynn Canal and for the Skagway and Juneau
areas, as my poor Christmas lights on Douglas Island can attest
to. It must be mother nature letting me know the holidays are
over.

As the shortwave continues to transition east tonight, the
gradient should begin to loosen, and we'll start to see winds
diminish across our area and continue Saturday. Generally,
Saturday will be a quiet weather day, save for possible snow
showers in and around Yakutat Bay. Beginning Sunday and
continuing into Sunday night, a weather front associated with a
developing low over the western gulf, will lift northeast across
the eastern gulf, increasing winds along eastern gulf waters. In
addition, most of the operational models continue to show a weak
surface low developing out of the southeastern gulf Sunday
afternoon into early Monday morning and moving north-northeast
along the panhandle coastline. With enough cold air already in
place, this feature may help to condition the environment for an
overrunning event, with the possibility of some, dare I say, snow
for New Year's Day. However, models currently have a large spread
regarding this feature, so there is some uncertainty with this
forecast.

Generally, we didn't make any significant changes to the forecast
for tonight through Saturday night, as its been holding
relatively well. The operational models still have some spread
going into Sunday and Sunday night, so we opted to make updates
using a combination of GFS, ECMWF, and GEM for pressures and
winds and a combination of NAM and GEM for precip chances, QPF,
and some snow elements.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday/ Overall
pattern for the first few days of 2018 features the return of the
US west coast upper ridge with a trough over the Bering Sea. For
the Panhandle this means the return of warmer more active weather
as general SW flow establishes itself. This pattern is not
expected to change much through the rest of the long range period.
The exception is possibly for next Friday as there are
suggestions that a weak trough may move through at that time
bringing some cooler air in its wake.

Trickiest part of the forecast will be the Sunday night into
Tuesday period as two weather fronts advance on the panhandle.
Several things complicate the forecast. The first is that mid
range models are not handling the wave structure on the first
front very well (some runs are developing another weak low along
the front Sunday night). This is causing some models to bring
more precip and wind into the panhandle east of Cape Fairweather
then others. Second is how fast various areas warm up (many areas
are expected to be above freezing by Tuesday at the latest). The
result is a somewhat uncertain forecast for Sunday night into
Tuesday regarding winds and precip amounts. Current forecast has
most of the higher winds staying offshore. The northern panhandle
also has the potential for at least a few inches of snow before
temps warm up enough to change it to rain, but the possibility is
there for lower or higher amounts.

Mid to late week period remains active as another front moves
across the gulf. Timing and structure of the system remains
inconsistent between models and model runs at this time so a more
ensemble approach to the forecast with WPC and ECMWF were used
where needed.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031-035.

&&

Voveris/EAL

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