Gale Warning 320, NWS Juneau, AK

090 
FZAK51 PAJK 290325 CCA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-291700-
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure remaining over the Yukon will increase 
northerly outflow into tonight. As the high shifts late Friday, 
the gradient over the northern panhandle will lessen. 

$$

PKZ011-291700-
Glacier Bay-
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-291700-
Northern Lynn Canal-
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-291700-
Southern Lynn Canal-
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing
spray late. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-291700-
Icy Strait-
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-291700-
Cross Sound-
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-291700-
Stephens Passage-
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-291700-
Northern Chatham Strait-
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft. Freezing 
spray late. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-291700-
Southern Chatham Strait-
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean 
entrances.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-291700-
Frederick Sound-
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-291700-
Sumner Strait-
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray 
late. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray
in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt, except 45 kt out of
interior passes. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-291700-
Clarence Strait-
332 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to
35 kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

038 
FZAK51 PAJK 291318
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-300400-
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure remains over the Yukon producing a
northerly outflow. As the high shifts late Friday, the gradient 
over the northern panhandle will weaken. An easterly moving front 
will reach the central gulf Saturday night. 

$$

PKZ011-300400-
Glacier Bay-
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray early in the
morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-300400-
Northern Lynn Canal-
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-300400-
Southern Lynn Canal-
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-300400-
Icy Strait-
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-300400-
Cross Sound-
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt diminishing in the 
afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-300400-
Stephens Passage-
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior 
passes. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior 
passes.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-300400-
Northern Chatham Strait-
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-300400-
Southern Chatham Strait-
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Near ocean entrances, gusts to 35 kt
diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-300400-
Frederick Sound-
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-300400-
Sumner Strait-
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes. 
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing late. Gusts to 40 kt out of
interior passes. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt in 
the morning. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-300400-
Clarence Strait-
418 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt. 
Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt.
Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt. 
Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
250 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

.SHORT TERM... The area of high pressure over the Yukon has set up
a strong gradient, such that it will be the perfect setup for
northerly outflow. Some of the northern inner channel waters will
see gale force winds. Skagway will see some of the highest wind
gusts across the panhandle tonight. The high weakens by Saturday
morning and shifts over central Canada. As this gradient weakens,
winds will decrease substantially early Friday, with the
exception of Skagway. The downtown Juneau and Douglas areas should
expect gusts up to 45 mph, but mountain wave guidance is
considered marginal with mediocre critical levels.

Minimal changes were made in pressure with any changes focused on
the tomorrow period. A blend of the GFS/EC/Canadian was used to
match WPC guidance, the GFS alone making the system too deep.
Changes within the wind grids were local edits on land. Winds were
increased for Day 3 along the outside waters, as a new low forms
near the Aleutian Islands late Saturday afternoon. As the pressure
gradient becomes more parallel into late Saturday, wind speeds
were decreased respectively over the inner channels.

Temperatures will remain quite chilly, with Friday night being one
of the coldest nights of the season. Most of the panhandle could
see single digits, and even negative temperatures in some areas.
As a result, maximum temperatures were actually lowered for
Saturday. POP's were edited using a NAM/GFS blend, which slowed
down Saturday's system somewhat and kept along with the dry
pattern. QPF models were keeping most of the precip offshore. Any
snowfall in the short- term period will be confined to the Yakutat
area, as a small front hovers over the area.

By Saturday morning, model differences provide little faith to a
solution.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday as of 10 PM Wednesday/
Models maintain idea of blocky flow at high latitudes breaking
down by the end of the weekend. Pattern shifts to a broad upper
trof over the central PAC and ridging over the far E PAC and
western NOAM by early next week. Models hint at main longwave trof
and ridge positions will drift W some by the end of the week, but
differ on how far W the drift will occur. Overall, main
adjustment to the forecast was to slow the E progress of systems
into the area this weekend. This also slows down the moderation in
temps during the first few of days in long range.

With systems slowed moving E toward the area, have delayed the
precip threat some during the Sun-Mon period. Still a lot of
details to work out as well, such as whether any low pressure
waves form along the front as it moves into the area. Still a lot
of time to get this scenario worked out. Still going for warmer
temps moving in early next week with most places seeing above
freezing temps by Tue. This will change any precip over to rain or
a mix by then for much of the area. Toward the end of the week,
temps may cool some again due to potential W shift of longwave
features.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ025.
     High Wind Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-035-041.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ032-042.

&&

SS/RWT

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