Gale Warning 31, NWS Juneau, AK

677 
FZAK52 PAJK 170022
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
322 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171830-
322 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON WILL CONTINUE NE
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE MON NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE SE GULF TUE AND STRENGTHENS INTO A GALE FORCE LOW OFFSHORE
OF BARANOF ISLAND WED. 

$$

PKZ041-171830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
322 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 10 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-171830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
322 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-171830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
322 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW LATE. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-171830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
322 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-171830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
322 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
9 FT. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

121 
FZAK52 PAJK 170742 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1042 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180145-
1042 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON WILL CONTINUE NE
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE MON NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE SE GULF TUE AND STRENGTHENS INTO A GALE FORCE LOW OFFSHORE
OF BARANOF ISLAND WED. 

$$

PKZ041-180145-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1042 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 20 FT. SW
SWELL.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-180145-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1042 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-180145-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1042 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW LATE. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-180145-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1042 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-180145-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1042 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
9 FT. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
414 PM AKST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...Satellite shows a large cyclone moving northeast
across the eastern gulf. Its related front aims a deep swath of
moisture with integrated vapor moisture of up to 4 standard
deviations above normal. This is already producing moderate
rainfall for the central and southern Panhandle and even some
lower elevation snow initially this afternoon at Yakutat. The
changeover to rain should be complete at sea level by early this
evening but Yakutat and the Haines Highway could receive up to 2
inches of snow before rain begins again. All told, this frontal
system along with a short-wave behind it continuing the deep
moisture transport into Monday should amount to 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall with locally higher amounts. At higher elevations on the
Klondike Highway, we still are forecasting heavy snow tonight and
and into late Monday. Winds are still forecast to ramp up Monday
so we expect blizzard conditions developing with areas of blowing
snow reducing visibility to near zero. Winter Storm Warning
begins at 6 PM this evening and continues into early Tuesday
morning.

A high wind warning was pulled forward in time earlier in the day
to begin at 3 PM. But already, Prince of Wales observations are
gusting to 60 mph. We think winds across the southern panhandle
will remain high this evening before diminishing somewhat
overnight. Then winds will rise again into early Monday morning
before diminishing by afternoon. These trends correlate well with
two low level jets that cross the area through Monday morning.
Farther north, we upgraded the high wind watch for Skagway and
lower elevations of the Klondike to a high wind warning effective
for Monday afternoon into Monday evening. As a cold front jumps
inland across the Wrangell St. Elias range Monday, pressure falls
will occur Monday with pressure rises across the panhandle late
Monday afternoon. This will rapidly increase gradients along the
Klondike producing 60 mph gusts from the southwest.

Storms and strong gales still spread across the gulf and Inner
Channels. Aside from high winds above, most other land areas will
receive gusts between 40 and 50 mph with very wet conditions.
Outdoor activities will not be for the faint of heart. Seas of up
to 25 feet will plague the gulf.

.LONG TERM...There remains considerable model disagreement as a
split flow pattern persists through the week. One of the few
things there is increased confidence in is a decreasing trend in
the temperatures.

A few things of note are increasing model agreement at the start
of the long range with a couple waves developing and tracking
across the central/southern panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday. Will
need to fine-tune the track and strength of these features as
models converge on a solution. The other period of interest is
Thursday with a potential overrunning situation setting up across
the northern panhandle as depicted by the GFS. Again, other models
have differing solutions so little confidence in any one solution
at this time but this is something to watch.

Used the 12z NAM/GFS through 84 hours then the latest WPC guidance
from thereafter.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through Monday morning for AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning until noon AKST Monday for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ021-024.
     Strong Wind through Monday morning for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind until 3 AM AKST Monday for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind Monday morning for AKZ023.
     High Wind Warning until 9 AM AKST Monday for AKZ028.
     Strong Wind from 3 AM AKST Monday through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ019.
     High Wind Warning from noon Monday to midnight AKST Monday night
     for AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Monday for
     AKZ017.
     Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053.
&&

JWA/TPS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau