Gale Warning 306, NWS Juneau, AK

721 
FZAK51 PAJK 151320
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-160330-
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A gale force front will enter the central gulf Friday afternoon
and reach the outer coast late Friday night. The front will
weaken over land on Saturday.   

$$

PKZ011-160330-
Glacier Bay-
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers early in
the morning, then scattered rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and
snow. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow in the morning, 
then rain and snow showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
and snow showers. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-160330-
Northern Lynn Canal-
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 35 kt early in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Scattered rain and
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain and
snow. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and
snow in the morning, then rain and snow showers in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow
showers. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-160330-
Southern Lynn Canal-
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers early in the morning, then scattered rain 
showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain in the evening, then rain and snow late. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas
5 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-160330-
Icy Strait-
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers early in the
morning, then scattered rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-160330-
Cross Sound-
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft. Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms early in the 
morning, then scattered rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-160330-
Stephens Passage-
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers early in the
morning, then scattered rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 5 ft.
Snow and scattered rain showers in the evening, then rain and
snow late. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes. Seas 5 ft. Snow in the
morning. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-160330-
Northern Chatham Strait-
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers early in the
morning, then scattered rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Scattered rain and
snow showers. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-160330-
Southern Chatham Strait-
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 10 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain showers early in the morning, then isolated rain 
showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft, except 13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
12 ft near ocean entrances. Scattered rain and snow showers. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-160330-
Frederick Sound-
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers early in the 
morning, then scattered rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt
out of interior passes. Seas 5 ft. Chance of rain in the evening,
then rain late. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Scattered rain and
snow showers. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-160330-
Sumner Strait-
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft.
Showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Out of
interior passes, gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 5 ft, except 7 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-160330-
Clarence Strait-
420 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers early in the 
morning, then scattered rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Out of
interior passes, gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 6 ft. Chance of rain
in the evening, then rain late. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 7 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Scattered
rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

097 
FZAK51 PAJK 160013
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-161545-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A gale force front over the central gulf will reach the outer
coast of SE AK late Friday night. The front will weaken as it 
moves inland Saturday. 

$$

PKZ011-161545-
Glacier Bay-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt
late. Seas 4 ft. Isolated rain showers early in the evening, then
rain. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
Rain showers. Snow showers late. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas building to 2 ft
or less. 

$$

PKZ012-161545-
Northern Lynn Canal-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt late. 
Seas 5 ft. Scattered rain showers early in the evening, then rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain in the
morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain
showers in the evening, then scattered rain showers late. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Scattered rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Scattered rain and snow
showers. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas building to 2 ft
or less. 

$$

PKZ013-161545-
Southern Lynn Canal-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt. 
Seas 5 ft. Scattered rain showers early in the evening, then rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the 
morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-161545-
Icy Strait-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 3 ft
building to 6 ft late. Isolated rain showers early in the
evening, then rain. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-161545-
Cross Sound-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 30 kt in the late evening. 
Seas 11 ft. Isolated rain showers early in the evening, then rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain and snow
showers. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-161545-
Stephens Passage-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt in the late evening. Gusts
to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Isolated rain showers early in the evening, 
then rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Rain
in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-161545-
Northern Chatham Strait-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the late evening. 
Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft. Isolated rain showers early in the 
evening, then rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 45 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the morning,
then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S late. Seas 4 ft. Rain
showers. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas building to 2 ft
or less. 

$$

PKZ033-161545-
Southern Chatham Strait-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the late evening. 
Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. 
Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft, except 13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain in the morning,
then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft,
except 13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-161545-
Frederick Sound-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the late evening. 
Seas 5 ft. Scattered rain showers early in the evening, then 
rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain 
showers. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-161545-
Sumner Strait-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the late evening. 
Gusts to 45 kt late. Seas 5 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances.
Isolated rain showers early in the evening, then rain. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening.
Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain and snow showers. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-161545-
Clarence Strait-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the evening, then 
becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft late. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft
late. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
249 PM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/ Rather active short range
forecast today. A strong front is currently moving through the
panhandle today that brought heavy rain (upwards of 1 to 2 inches
overnight) and gusty winds (30 to 35 mph) to many areas last
night and early this morning. The front will continue its eastward
trek into Canada this afternoon and evening with winds and precip
diminishing through that time.

Behind the front SW flow is the main pattern with shower activity
being the norm. However there is a an area of vorticity near 55N
150w that will rotate into the NE gulf by late tonight that will
enhance and possibly bring better organization to the showers
near it. There is also a weak pocket of cooler air aloft
associated with the vorticity max, so some heavy showers or even
some thunderstorms are not out of the question. A slight chance of
thunder was retained in that area for tonight

Focus then shifts to the next front approaching from the west for
Friday night into Saturday. Current model trends have the front
slightly slower then previous forecasts but still retaining at
least gale force winds as it crosses the gulf. Main forecast
change was the increasing of wind speeds in many areas of the
inner channels Fri night into Sat as the front moves in. Higher
resolution models were suggesting gale force winds at that time
for some areas like Stephens Passage and southern Lynn, but I
decided to limit those winds to around 30 kt for now to await
further runs.

This front also looks to be rather wet with a moisture plume
extending all the way down to the tropics. However, this front
does not appear to get hung up on the panhandle like last night's
front did. Instead it appears to be a rapid mover from W to E so a
period of heavy rain is still likely for many areas but it should
not stick around long enough for flooding to become an issue. As
for ptype, sea level areas will still be too warm for snow,
however higher elevations of the Klondike Highway and maybe the
Haines Highway could get cold enough for snow so will need to be
watched as the front comes inland.

Short range models were in decent agreement. Namnest was used for
wind speed updates particularly in the inner channels Fri night
into Sat. Overall updates were handled with the Gfs and Nam though
most of those updates were minor.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/ As of 10pm
Wednesday...The extended forecast starts off with a strong front
over the eastern gulf and widespread rain over the panhandle.
Models are now indicating a barrier jet and elsewhere along the
front to have storm force winds. Have increased wind speeds with
this package up to gale 35-45kt for now since models are still
showing some differences on when the peak timing would be. Winds
aloft will have shifted to the SW which will increase rainfall
rates to heavy at times again and keep temps on the warm side.
Therefore any place that had started off as a mix or snow will be
all rain by Saturday morning.

The low looks to move inland near PWS Saturday afternoon and
precip will transition to showers across the panhandle, although
remaining wet due to persistent onshore flow. Temperatures aloft
will start to cool at this point however, so do have places over
the northern inner channels with snow mixed in Saturday night and
Sunday. Not expecting much accumulation with this snow, potential
is there for a few inches, but warm surface temperatures will
likely cause the snow to melt on contact to start and
significantly limit accumulations.

Sunday night into Monday a new low center will be over the north-
central gulf. This will help to keep showers going (mostly rain
during the day and some mixing/snow at night) across the region.
But as the low tracks S-SE through Monday, winds will turn out of
the north and offshore, causing decreasing POPs and cloud cover
from north to south. Meanwhile the upper level jet will also have
turned out of the north and draw down colder air across the
region. Models have come in line with the shift to north winds on
Monday/Tuesday, but the GFS and Canadian keep that going Wednesday
while the ECMWF has it breaking down already with a shift back to
the SE. Think that it will persist a bit longer, so have
increased northerly winds through the inner channels through mid
next week. All signs point to this "cool down" back to normal
December temperatures to not last and things warming back up
above normal levels beyond the long range period.

Models were in better agreement on the overall pattern for this
package. Preferred the GFS for most updates as it was in line
with the forecast from yesterday and other models came into better
agreement with its solution. Forecast confidence is average, but
lower for accumulating snow.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

EAL/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau