Gale Warning 301, NWS Juneau, AK

055 
FZAK52 PAJK 131316
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
416 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140730-
416 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front will make its way through the Gulf and
offshore waters late today into Thursday. A secondary front 
will begin development tonight off of the Aleutian Islands and 
track northeastward, reaching the panhandle by Friday night.  

$$

PKZ041-140730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
416 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft building to 16 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
416 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft building to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt late. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
416 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft.
Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Rain in the
morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
416 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt decreasing to 30 kt late. Seas 16 ft. 
Rain in the evening.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
416 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft building to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt late. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 23 ft subsiding to
18 ft. 

$$

840 
FZAK52 PAJK 140019
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
319 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-141830-
319 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front over the eastern gulf will move E across SE
AK Thu. Another weather front will move NE, reaching the eastern 
gulf by Friday night. 

$$

PKZ041-141830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
319 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers late. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-141830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
319 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt late. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. S swell in the
afternoon. Rain in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-141830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
319 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 21 ft.
Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. Rain in the
morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-141830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
319 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 20 ft. 
Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the
afternoon. S swell. Rain in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain
showers in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-141830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
319 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt late. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain in the
morning, then slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas 10 ft. SW
swell. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. 
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 14 ft subsiding to
10 ft. 

$$

182 
FZAK52 PAJK 141302
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
402 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-150715-
402 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front over the eastern gulf will move east across
Southeast Alaska on Thursday. Another weather front  will move
northeast, reaching the eastern gulf by Friday night. 

$$

PKZ041-150715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
402 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 21 ft subsiding to 16 ft in the afternoon. Showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Scattered showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-150715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
402 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19
ft. Showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. Slight chance
of thunderstorms late. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Scattered rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-150715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
402 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
20 ft. Showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Scattered rain
showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-150715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
402 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW late morning, then diminishing
to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft. Showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. Rain showers in
the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Scattered rain
showers late. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
S swell. Scattered rain showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-150715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
402 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the evening. 
Seas 14 ft. S swell. Scattered rain showers. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 ft. Chance of rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
214 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...Persistent, anomalously deep troughing continues
over the western Gulf of Alaska through Wednesday night. Deep
layer moist southerly flow will continue to direct a series of
fronts across the Panhandle. The first in the series of fronts
will track across the central and southern Panhandle tonight. Rain
will be widespread and heavy at times south of Frederick Sound
tonight with small craft level winds over the outside waters and
spreading into Clarence Strait later this evening.

More substantial shortwave and associated strong front will
slowly approach the panhandle Wednesday and Wednesday night. This
front will once again be accompanied by strong moisture transport
with NAEFS ensemble integrated moisture transport values between 4
and 5 standard deviations above normal. Southerly flow in the H85
to H7 layer progged around 50-60kt and these favorable
orographics will combine with strong WAA to produce yet another
period of heavy rainfall from late Wednesday through Wednesday
night.

Winds will also be on the increase Wednesday especially over the
outside waters. Barrier jet formation Wednesday will lead to gale
force easterlies along the northeast Gulf coast. As the front
pushes east on Wednesday night, gales will spread into the
remainder of the offshore waters with small craft SE'ly winds on
the inside waters. Gusty winds will also develop along the outer
coastal land areas with 40 mph gusts likely in places such as
Yakutat and Sitka Wednesday evening.

Model spread becomes more significant as we head into Thursday
regarding the position of the front but still looks to be a very
warm and wet period.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...The upper level ridge
extending into British Columbia, which has contributed to the
blocking pattern and warmer temperatures we have seen as of late,
will finally begin to break down and push east. This should
provide an opportunity for additional shortwaves to transition
east and impact the panhandle, leading to a fairly active pattern
and one that should remain wet; the position of these shortwaves
will continue to pull in subtropical moisture. Model analysis
continues to show anomalously high precipitable water values with
each of these passing systems, so we're not seeing any significant
periods of drying out in the long term.

Most of the major models agree that a strong shortwave will
develop near the Aleutian Islands on Friday, and an associated
weather front will lift northeast and impact the panhandle on
Saturday. As this shortwave continues to lift northeast, an upper
level trough will begin to build in aloft over our area and
should provide some assistance with lowering temperatures across
our area. The NAEFS currently shows a decreasing trend in
temperatures continuing into the early part of next week, with
temperatures nearing normal or even slightly below normal for
this time of year. The GEFS is also following this trend with
temperatures as well, which led to higher confidence in adjusting
our temperature forecast.

After the Saturday timeframe, most of the major model solutions
disagree with one another, so we opted not to make any
significant changes to the forecast after this point. However, we
decided that we would lower temperatures a few degrees in the
early part of next week to fit with the pattern shift, as
mentioned previously. For the Thursday through early Saturday
time period, we used a 50/50 blend of the GFS and ECMWF to make
adjustments to the winds and PoP fields.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Strong warm advection on Wednesday will result in
freezing levels once again rising to between 4 and 6 kft. While
recent warm temps have likely decreased the mountain snow pack
significantly, there will likely be at least some additional snow
melt which will combine with storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches over the northern panhandle to produce rises rivers and
streams. At this time no flooding issues are expected but will
need to monitor smaller streams such as Jordan Creek near Juneau
should heavier rainfall rates develop.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-053.

&&

DEL/JJV

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1034 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

AKZ017>028-131900-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, Gustavus,
Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, Port Alexander, Angoon,
Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan,
and Metlakatla
1034 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...Another round of heavier rains Wednesday to Thursday...

Another front will track north from the mid tropics through the
northeast gulf coast Wednesday into Wednesday night. The frontal
band will stall over the north central panhandle Thursday then
slowly move east into British Columbia Thursday night.

Rainfall totals from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon
will range from 2.5 to 3.5 inches with the highest totals near
Yakutat. Most of the rain will fall Wednesday and Wednesday night,
while Thursday will add roughly another inch of rainfall.

Rivers and streams across the panhandle will rise. However at
this time expect that levels will remain below or just near
bankfull levels.