Gale Warning 288, NWS Juneau, AK

194 
FZAK53 PAJK 041235
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-050645-
Yakutat Bay-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas
17 ft, except 5 ft E side of the bay. S swell. Showers. Slight 
chance of thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft, except 3 ft E side of the 
bay. S swell. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft, except 4 ft E side of the bay. S swell in the morning. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft, except 4 ft E side of
the bay. S swell. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...The strong low southeast of Cold Bay this afternoon
will continue to move north to over Kodiak Island overnight
before rotating around near Togiak Monday morning. Its associated
front is arching ahead of low center and will sweep across the
gulf reaching the outer coastal areas of the Panhandle this
evening from Cape Suckling through Sitka and then weaken as it
reaches the southern Panhandle by midnight. Strong winds will be
generated with this front with Gale force winds over much of the
area tonight and into early Monday morning. Sustained winds of 20
to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 55 mph will happening over much of
the Panhandle this evening into early Monday morning. The front is
moving quickly and the highest winds will only last a few hours
as the front passes over.

Temperatures are warming with this front with a warm southerly
flow, snow levels rising to around 2000 feet in the north and up
above 4000 feet in the south by Monday. Snow levels will continue
to rise across of the Panhandle beginning Tuesday to 3000-5000 feet.

This front not only has ample wind speeds but will also possess
heavy rainfall to Yakutat down through Sitka, and spreading over
the rest of the Panhandle overnight excluding Hyder area.

Tides are at astronomical high tides through Tuesday, the highest
threat of coastal flooding will be overnight and Monday morning
with the strong winds, for areas with a westerly exposed shore.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday as of 930 PM Saturday/ The warm
weather trend will continue through the extended forecast.
Tuesday begins with a low pressure system moving north over the
western Gulf of Alaska. Its associated warm front will track
northeast over the gulf and come ashore early Tuesday morning.
Currently gale force winds are expected over the gulf with this
system. The bulk of precipitation is expected to be confined to
northern Panhandle; however, some rain may spread into the
southern Panhandle as well on Tuesday. Also, all low elevation
precipitation will likely fall as rain with this system due to the
seasonably warm temperatures. Behind this system, temperatures
continue to trend upward through the week approaching the 50s over
the far southern Panhandle by the end of the week, with the
northern panhandle breaking 40 degrees.

Most of the changes in the extended forecast regarded the warm
front that pushes north across the gulf and Panhandle on Tuesday.
As a whole, models are in better agreement with this system today
with a westward trend favored. Primary guidance was the 18z NAM
to handle the front on Tuesday, which acted a middle ground
solution to handle precipitation between the GFS and ECMWF. Beyond
that timeframe ensembles were favored via WPC guidance due to
continued model run to run inconsistencies. Confidence remains
below average beyond Tuesday as models continue to struggle with
this pattern; the exception is temperatures.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ026.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ025-027.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ019-021-024.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ018-020.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051>053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011.

&&

KV/Byrd

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
234 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

AKZ023-052230-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Sitka and Port Alexander
234 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PORT ALEXANDER...

Each mid-day high tide this coming week will be higher than
normal. For the city of Port Alexander, predicted tides are
between the minor flood stage of 13.6 feet and the moderate flood
stage of 14.2 feet. At this level there can be flooding of the
telephone building on the point and gravel caused by waves onto
the electric generator building. The highest tide of the week will
be on Monday at 1244 PM in Port Alexander.

A front will cause winds to increase out of the S-SE Sunday night
into early Monday morning with winds of around 20 mph gusting to
40 mph. This will coincide with the high tide at 106 AM, but that
tide is predicted to be well below flood stage.

FERRIN