Gale Warning 280, NWS Juneau, AK

033 
FZAK67 PAJK 130012
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
312 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-131815-
312 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weak front will move over the southern and central Panhandle 
this evening and tonight. A gale force front will enter the 
eastern gulf early Wednesday and spread across the panhandle 
through Wednesday night. 

$$

PKZ310-131815-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
312 PM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 14 ft. 
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell in the
evening. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell in the
evening. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

741 
FZAK67 PAJK 131320
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
420 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-140730-
420 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force front will make its way through the Gulf and
offshore waters late today into Thursday. A secondary front 
will begin development tonight off of the Aleutian Islands and 
track northeastward, reaching the panhandle by Friday night.  

$$

PKZ310-140730-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
420 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Strongest winds eastern half. Seas 16 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...Eastern half, S wind 35 kt becoming NW 15 kt late.
Western half, NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

671 
FZAK67 PAJK 140020
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-141830-
320 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force front over the eastern gulf will move E across SE
AK Thu. Another weather front will move NE, reaching the eastern
gulf by Friday night. 

$$

PKZ310-141830-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
320 PM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming NW 15 kt late. Seas 16 ft. S
swell late. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. S swell in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the evening. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Rain late. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

619 
FZAK67 PAJK 141304
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
404 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-150715-
404 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force front over the eastern gulf will move east across
Southeast Alaska on Thursday. Another weather front  will move
northeast, reaching the eastern gulf by Friday night. 

$$

PKZ310-150715-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
404 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Scattered rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers. Slight chance
of thunderstorms.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

341 
FZAK67 PAJK 150026
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
326 PM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-151830-
326 PM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front over the panhandle will head east into Canada this
evening. A gale force front will move northeast, reaching  the
eastern gulf by Friday night.  

$$

PKZ310-151830-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
326 PM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Scattered rain showers
late. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. S swell in the morning. Chance of rain in the morning,
then rain in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Chance of rain in the
morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Showers. Slight
chance of thunderstorms late. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

069 
FZAK67 PAJK 151324
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
424 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-160730-
424 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force front will enter the central gulf Friday afternoon
and reach the outer coast late Friday night. The front will
weaken over land on Saturday.   

$$

PKZ310-160730-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
424 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. S swell early in the morning. Isolated rain showers early
in the morning. Chance of rain in the morning. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 20 kt late. Seas 15 ft. Rain
in the evening, then chance of rain late. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 15 
ft. Scattered rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Scattered showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

520 
FZAK67 PAJK 160008
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-161815-
308 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force front over the central gulf will reach the outer
coast of SE AK late Friday night. The front will weaken as it 
moves inland Saturday. 

$$

PKZ310-161815-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
308 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt late. Seas 14 ft. Rain
in the evening, then scattered rain showers late. 
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Scattered rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then rain showers
in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell shifting to
the W late. Showers in the evening, then chance of showers late. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

375 
FZAK67 PAJK 161239
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-170645-
339 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force front over the eastern gulf will continue to move
east inland and weaken today. A developing surface low will then
move into the western gulf beginning late today and slowly
progress east across the gulf, continuing into Monday.  

$$

PKZ310-170645-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
339 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell early in the morning.
Scattered rain showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Scattered rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell in the morning.
Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Scattered rain
showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. Scattered
showers. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A stalled front extending north south across the
central Panhandle will weaken Monday night as another front will
push north across the Panhandle early Tuesday morning. A third
front will track into the southern and central Panhandle late
Tuesday. A gale force front arrives in the eastern gulf Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The front ushering integrated vapor moisture values
of 6 standard deviations above normal and precipitable water
values of 4 plus standard deviations above normal has resulted in
persistent moderate rain rates across portions of the north-
central Panhandle and up to 10 inches of heavy wet snow at White
Pass this morning. Creeks and rivers across the Panhandle have
experienced some rises, and we are concerned enough to issue a
Flood Advisory for Jordan Creek (see hydrology below).

The other big story is the continuing warmth generated by the
deeply meridional southerly flow. Temperatures in the high 50s and
above have been reported from Wrangell south today with low 60s
on Annette Island to the far south. Forecast temperatures for
the next few days are still very mild for December, however, we
have not gone into the 50s, mainly because the southern Panhandle
should be much rainier for next couple of days.

Another front will lift northward across the Panhandle late
tonight into Tuesday morning spreading more rain in the forecast
for the northern and central Inner Channels. By Tuesday
afternoon, the northern Panhandle should begin to dry out a little
with only scattered showers. However, another wave will lift
north Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night spreading rain
northward from the southern Inner Channels.

By Wednesday, a stronger front, will deliver yet more round of
moderate to heavy rain across the Panhandle along with gale force
winds across the eastern gulf. Likely winds across the Inner
Channels will increase as well. In line with a steady warming
trend through mid-week, we think it increasingly likely that White
Pass should see some rain mix in with snow, thus keeping snow
amounts below hazard criteria.

Confidence is high for warm, wet conditions, and has increased
somewhat on features. However, some details will need to be
sharpened in time.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/ As of 10pm Sunday...Long
range models have diverged on timing of lows/fronts moving into
the region through the extended forecast period. However the
overall idea of a very active pattern has not changed; warm/wet
to start with a slight cooling trend through the end of the week.

Wednesday will have start off wet with relatively light rain,
then a low and assoc gale force front will move north into the
central gulf. This will likely pull the rain back from the far SE
panhandle for a period, then move back inland as the front shifts
east over the panhandle Wednesday night. A wave moving north
along a front late Wed into Thurs will infuse another shot of
moisture to the area with moderate to heavy rain. Will need to
watch this wave over the next couple days. Some models show a new
low center developing along the frontal trough near Cape Decision
while others only have a trough and still others have a stronger
low center out over the central gulf. Have increased winds
slightly along the trough, but would need to adjust up more if the
low develops near Cape Decision. Will also see a wind shift to
the W-SW behind the frontal trough on Thursday.

There is lower forecast confidence for timing of fronts and rainy
vs. "dry" breaks due to model spread through the end of the week,
but overall it looks to be more wet than dry. Due to
inconsistencies in models opted to make fewer changes to this
forecast package.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Persistent rain rates of between 0.1 and 0.2 inches
per hour this morning coupled with high December freezing levels
have raised water levels in portions of the north-central
Panhandle, including Jordan and Montana Creeks. Rain rates have
diminished as the front draped across the central Panhandle has
weakened. But with the trend in the river levels on Jordan not
falling, we elected to issue a flood advisory for Jordan Creek
effective through the next frontal passage Tuesday morning.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory for PKZ025.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ022-053.

&&

JWA/Ferrin

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