Gale Warning 265, NWS Juneau, AK

064 
FZAK52 PAJK 241245
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-250645-
345 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A complex gale force low pressure system over the eastern Gulf
of Alaska will persist through Sat. A moderate strength front
over the central panhandle Fri morning will dissipate Fri 
afternoon. High pressure will rebuild over the Yukon late Fri 
night and Sat. 

$$

PKZ041-250645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
345 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 
17 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 18 ft.
Rain showers. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-250645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
345 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to SE 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-250645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
345 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Higher
gusts out of Cross Sound. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-250645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
345 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas 
13 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. 
Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas 13
ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-250645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
345 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas building to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

755 
FZAK52 PAJK 250025
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-251830-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A complex gale force low pressure system over the eastern Gulf
of Alaska will slowly weaken through Sat. High pressure will 
rebuild over the Yukon late Fri night and Sat. 

$$

PKZ041-251830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers. Isolated
thunderstorms in the evening.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming N late. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-251830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft.
Rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain
showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas
10 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-251830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain 
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-251830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-251830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.MON...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 18 ft. 

$$

537 
FZAK52 PAJK 251247
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-260700-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A complex gale force low pressure system over the eastern Gulf
of Alaska will slowly weaken today and tonight.  Moderate high
pressure will persist over the Yukon through tonight then weaken
on Sun. Another front will move into the eastern Gulf on Sun
night.  

$$

PKZ041-260700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. Isolated 
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming N late. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt. Seas 12 ft building to
18 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-260700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-260700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-260700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt this afternoon. Seas 
16 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-260700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
347 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. SW
swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E gale to 40 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
311 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ An occluded front over the
eastern gulf will move slowly NE across SE AK tonight and Fri
morning. Parent low will move into the far S gulf by late
tonight, then wobble around the SE gulf through Fri night. Used
the 12z NAM to handle main system movement, with the main low
track adjusted to the NE some from previous forecast.

Main concern will be snowfall amounts. Still looking like a decent
snowfall event across the N tonight and Fri morning as front moves
in. Decided to start the Winter Wx Advy for zones 20 and 25 at
00z this afternoon as snow has been falling all day and should
continue on and off until main snow band with the front comes
through later tonight and Fri morning. Went for 4 to 8 inches by
late Fri morning in the advisory areas. Elsewhere over the
N...looking like a 2 to 4 inch snowfall tonight and 1 to 3 more
inches Fri. Areas along S side of Icy Strait corridor will likely
see some rain mix in by early this evening...so snowfall in those
areas will be limited to 1 to 3 inches tonight. More shortwaves
moving around the main low center will bring snow showers to the N
third of the area Fri afternoon into late Fri night at least, and
these could produce several more inches of snow, but models
differ on placement of the heavier snow bands so no headlines will
be issued for this time frame attm.

Elsewhere, rain with snow mixed in at times over the more E areas
will continue into Fri morning before transitioning to showers.
Colder air will try to filter slowly S Fri night, which could
cause more of the central panhandle to become snow showers.

Expect a band of gale force winds ahead of the front in the
eastern gulf tonight, and some of these could get into Clarence
Strait for a short period late tonight as front moves through
them. Did drop the strong wind headlines though as stronger flow
aloft will coincide with warm advection so not expecting much
momentum transfer downward. Northerly winds will slowly increase
over the N tonight through Fri night, and winds should reach gale
force in Lynn Canal Fri and continue Fri night.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ Active weather pattern
continues through the long range. Uncertainty is still the word
for the weekend forecast. While there is some agreement at mid and
upper level patterns the details with surface features are
causing large variability. What is expected after the weekend is a
shift from the cold arctic air in place over the central and
northern panhandle to a warming trend. Needless to say forecast
confidence is low.

High amplitude pattern at mid levels on Saturday with upper level
trough over the eastern AK gulf dropping almost down to S
California with a sharp ridge to the west extending from the N
Pacific and all the way into the Chukchi Sea. The trough/ridge
will start to shift to the east and flatten through Sunday as
another low drops from the Bering Sea over the Aleutians and over
the western gulf Monday. As this low moves east will have a
repeating pattern of ridge following the low, followed by another
low tracking across the Aleutians and into the western gulf. The
weekend surface feature is causing the most difficulty. Low
pressure over the gulf on Friday was originally shown to move
quickly to the east but now indications that this feature will
become quasi stationary into Sunday before weakening and moving to
the south. If the GFS/NAM are correct the more southerly
positions of the low pushes more warm air over the panhandle,
raising temps and snow levels but would be drier. The ECMWF keeps
the low further north, keeps precip in longer but keeps northerly
flow and thus lower temps and snow levels. ECMWF has shown more
run to run variability for the weekend system but is more
consistent for the systems next week. The Monday low looks like a
typical SE AK system moving a low center into the western gulf
with frontal boundary moving across the eastern gulf then over the
panhandle Monday night into Tuesday. While models differ on the
position and strength of the low center, they are in general
agreement on southerly flow which would once again raise temps and
snow levels. Began the process of increasing temps and for now
have more mix of rain/snow for areas north of Frederick Sound, but
could be switching this to all rain at lower elevations. In
addition to the precip and warming temps each low will bring in
another round of stronger gulf winds, with gales likely but
potential for stronger winds by Tuesday over the gulf. Not seeing
any real change to this warmer/wetter pattern for the rest of the
week.

Initially models for Saturday had enough spread that changes
seemed undesired from the previous ensemble type forecast. Latest
check now shows, at least until 12z Sunday, more agreement on
rotating the low center counterclockwise over the southcentral AK
gulf before dissipating. Best agreement between the newest
GFS/NAM but held off on using that blend until more detail for the
Friday system could be established. For the rest of the time
frame utilized latest WPC, which was pretty much in line with
previous WPC resulting in some minor adjustments to wind speeds.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ020-025.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-022-041>043-051>053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-031>036.

&&

RWT/PRB

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