Gale Warning 236, NWS Juneau, AK

684 
FZAK52 PAJK 012337
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-021745-
337 PM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Strong northerly winds between high pressure over the Yukon and
low pressure over southern British Columbia, with winds
diminishing Thursday.  

$$

PKZ041-021745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
337 PM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-021745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
337 PM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 35 kt early in the morning, diminishing to 25 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-021745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
337 PM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt diminishing in the morning. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-021745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
337 PM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-021745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
337 PM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

947 
FZAK52 PAJK 021138
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 AM AKDT Thu Nov 2 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-030545-
338 AM AKDT Thu Nov 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure in the Southern Yukon will move SE through
Thursday. A weak low will develop along the NE gulf coast Thu
night and move SE through Fri.  

$$

PKZ041-030545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
338 AM AKDT Thu Nov 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-030545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
338 AM AKDT Thu Nov 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-030545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
338 AM AKDT Thu Nov 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-030545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
338 AM AKDT Thu Nov 2 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-030545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
338 AM AKDT Thu Nov 2 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1153 PM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

.SHORT TERM...The trend for this evening is decreasing clouds and
precipitation. For the northern areas increasing northerly winds.
Temperatures will fall overnight to slightly cooler than normal
for late October. Some areas in the northern half could have
temperatures at or below freezing overnight. Use caution for icy
conditions during the late overnight hours and on the Wednesday
morning commute. Dry and cool will continue with the offshore flow
remaining in place into late week.

Strong winds for the Juneau and Skagway areas by Wednesday and
gale force winds for northern Lynn Canal. Locally higher winds
out of interior passes will also set in.

Model agreement continues to be good and only minor updates were
needed to the forecast. GFS and NAM were the models of choice.
Most of the work was to the winds for timing of the higher winds.
This is a two part equation with the first being the pressure
gradient and the second being the thermal gradient. The solution
brought in the stronger winds a few hours earlier this
afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...Generally, the long-term
forecast for SE Alaska has remained fairly consistent, as of
late. A deep upper-level ridge will remain positioned over the
western gulf, with periodic shortwaves riding up and over the
ridge. For the most part, offshore flow will remain for the
panhandle, giving us a drier and cooler pattern through early
next week, since the source of the flow will be directed more from
continental Canada.

On Thursday, the surface low originally positioned near Haida
Gwaii will continue to dig southeast, where it will eventually
make its way to the northwestern coast of the conterminous US,
interacting with the baroclinic zone there. An additional weak
shortwave appears to push southeast from the border between
mainland Alaska and the Yukon Territories of Canada on Friday. As
such, we left some slightly higher chances for PoPs along the
outer coast of Baranof Island and near Elfin Cove, and due to the
cold air mass already in place over the panhandle, we may see a
possibility for flurries here. Over the weekend, the deep ridge
begins to show signs of weakening, and on Sunday, a stronger
shortwave appears to dig southeast out of mainland Alaska,
impacting the panhandle by Monday. All of the models generally
agree on this feature developing, with disagreements as to the
timing of development and speed of progression.

Not many adjustments were made to the forecast. Models generally
have decent agreement through the Friday timeframe, as of the
most recent runs. Most changes made were updated using a blend of
the GFS and EC, leaning more towards the GFS. We tried to
maintain the same thought process that WPC leaned towards in their
discussion. We then leaned more towards WPC guidance after
Saturday, as models are still having difficulty agreeing on the
timing and development of certain surface-level features.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-042-043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041-051.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ052-053.

&&

KV/Byrd/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1149 PM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

AKZ017>022-025-011500-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, Gustavus,
Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Juneau
1149 PM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

...STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Potential for significant winds will increase over the northern
inner channels and out of interior passes of the northern
panhandle Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning.
Strongest winds with gusts up to 45 mph are possible near Skagway
and along the Klondike Highway as well as near downtown Juneau
and Douglas Island beginning late Wednesday afternoon. These winds
will begin to diminish late in the evening. In addition strong
gale force winds of up to 40 kt are possible in northern Lynn
Canal during this timeframe.

Northerly winds will persist over the panhandle through the week
which will act to keep afternoon temperatures in the 30s and over
night lows below freezing across the panhandle. Black ice may form
on wet surfaces for the next few nights, especially in wind
sheltered areas.