Gale Warning 192, NWS Juneau, AK

158 
FZAK53 PAJK 272331
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
331 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-281745-
Yakutat Bay-
331 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 KT becoming E 10 KT in the late evening. 
Seas 10 FT, except 3 FT E side of the bay. S swell. Rain in the 
evening, then showers late. 
.THU...E wind 15 KT. Seas 10 FT, except 2 FT or less E side
of the bay. S swell. Showers in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds becoming E 10 KT late. Seas 8 FT.
East side of the bay, seas 2 FT or less then 2 FT late. S swell. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 7 FT, except 2 FT or less E side of
the bay. S swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 KT. Seas 5 FT, except 2 FT or less E
side of the bay. 
.SAT...E wind 15 KT. Seas 3 FT. 
.SUN...E wind 15 KT. Seas 2 FT or less. 
.MON...E wind 10 KT. Seas 2 FT or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
615 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A front extending north-south across the eastern gulf
is directing an atmospheric river with bands of heavy rain into
the Panhandle. The front will make slow progress eastward today
through Thursday pushing the atmospheric river from the northern
and central Panhandle into the southern Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Our atmospheric river is underway. One to five
inches of rainfall has fallen over the course of the last 24 hours
with the greatest totals seen across the southern and central
Panhandle. Sitka broke a daily rainfall record yesterday with 3.31
inches. More rainfall of between 1 and 4 inches is expected over
the next 24 to 36 hours. With precipitable water and integrated
vapor transport levels around 3 or more standard deviations above
normal, model forecasts seem reasonable. For hydrologic concerns,
please see the section below.

We continue to increase windspeeds for much of the central
Panhandle on this Wednesday. We have added strong wind headlines
for Sitka, Pelican, and Juneau today for 40 mph gusts. Juneau's
winds may persist into early this evening. Beyond these areas, winds
may brush up against the 40 mph threshold in Yakutat, but
confidence was lower here. Other areas to watch for wind include
Kake and Prince of Wales Island today. Due to stronger baroclinicity
of the front sliding east, we feel added confidence for greater
winds with more efficient mixing. Other areas to watch for wind
include Kake and Prince of Wales Island today.

For those tired of the rain, a post frontal ridge looks to develop
with an increasing offshore component in the low levels Thursday
night into Friday. Resulting clearing could allow some fog to
develop. Dry weather is forecast for the northern Panhandle, but
the questionable duration of the atmospheric river to the south
demands at least a chance of rain for Ketchikan.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/...Very good upper level
agreement aloft at the start of the long range forecast period.
Main feature at the end of the week will be a very broad upper low
that spans the gulf and extends south into the North Pacific.
Embedded features in the upper levels include a closed low west
of Haida Gwaii and multiple smaller upper circulations vicinity
Kodiak Island. Stepping forward in time, an upper trough north of
the Aleutians will dig south as it rotates around the base of the
large upper low. Models diverge by Saturday with the disposition
of this upper trough with NAM and ECMWF closing a circulation well
to the west while GFS and GEM close the upper low more over the
northeastern gulf. The upper low/trough is displaced southeast by
and upper ridge on Monday. Details vary considerably, but ECMWF,
GEM, and GFS are all depicting this. By Tuesday, EC and GFS are
developing an upper short wave over the southern interior and
track this across the top of the ridge. This will allow for
onshore flow and unsettled weather by mid week next week.

Surface reflections of the two main upper lows are clear in ECMWF,
though the Haida Gwaii feature is not nearly as obvious in GFS,
GEM, or NAM. Very strong surface high pressure builds in from the
northwest Pacific and Bering Sea, spreading across much of the
interior and northwest Canada. Like the situation aloft, the
details vary significantly, but by Monday, all are depicting high
pressure centers southwest of the gulf and over the Yukon/Alaska
border. Over southeast Alaska, an inverted trough will set up
with its axis aligned along the outer coast. This often translates
into better than average weather for the Panhandle in terms of
precipitation and this is reflected in the current long range
forecast. By Tuesday, a surface low associated with the upper
short wave discussed above will move east over either the far
northern gulf or across the southern coast, bringing a front and
increasing the chance of rain by the middle of next week.

Main changes to the extended range forecast were to decrease PoP
Friday and again Sunday night through Monday night. Sky cover was
also diminished for the same time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions will deteriorate this morning as a strong
front pushes rain into portions of the northern and central Panhandle
today. Many sites are expected to fall to IMC conditions as early
as this morning. Drier conditions are expected for the south
although low ceilings will still demand caution. We expect
widespread wind shear today following a powerful low level jet.

&&

.MARINE...The gulf waters will experience widespread gale force
southeasterlies today before weakening to 30 kt or less tonight.
Meanwhile, we have raised wind speeds another 5 to 10 kt in some
of the Inner Channels. Gale force wind speeds have already been
reported at Skull Island on the back side of Douglas. Winds will
gradually diminish tonight into Thursday from north to south.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The south-central and coastal Panhandle during the
last 24 hours has received between 2 and 5 inches of rainfall
while the northern and north central Panhandle has received
anywhere between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall. Falls Creek near
Petersburg swelled out of its banks early this morning but no
impacts have been reported. The Indian River near Sitka came very
close to flooding, but fell just shy before the atmospheric river
shifted north and west. Heavy rain bands have now moved north and
west with another 1 to 4 inches of rainfall due to fall in the
next 24 hours. Rain re-enters the southern Panhandle tonight as
the front begins to slide the atmospheric river back eastward
through the entire Panhandle. The southern Panhandle can expect
another 1 to 3 inches from this afternoon through Thursday
afternoon.

Given our saturated soils and still more rainfall on the way, we
are still concerned with many area rivers and creeks. Minor
flooding may occur along the Taiya River and Montana Creek, but
other rivers and creeks will be monitored. Significant rises
are occurring across Southeast. Special weather statements
continue for nearly all of Southeast Alaska.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ022-023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-052-053.

&&

JWA/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
648 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

AKZ017>029-280100-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-Misty Fjords-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, Gustavus,
Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, Port Alexander, Angoon,
Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan,
Metlakatla, and Hyder
648 AM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WEDNESDAY...

Nearly five inches of rain occurred Tuesday in Sitka and most of
that came in just a few hours late Tuesday afternoon. Rain amounts
between two and four inches were fairly common over the southern
half of the Panhandle Tuesday. River levels rose accordingly but
there is no known flooding occurring at this time.

The area of significant rainfall shifted farther north Tuesday
night. As of 6 AM Wednesday heavier rain was occurring from around
Glacier Bay to Yakutat. The weather front causing the rain extends
offshore and well to the south. This rain band will move east
during the day Wednesday. Rainfall intensities will increase from
Skagway to Juneau to Sitka by this afternoon. Two to four more
inches of rain are likely through tonight in these areas. Rivers
such as the Taiya near Skagway, Montana Creek near Juneau, Indian
River near Sitka, and Falls Creek near Petersburg could rise
sharply to bankfull Wednesday afternoon. Rain will spread back
into the southern Panhandle later today and especially overnight
tonight.

Along with the rain, gusty south winds of 30 to 40 mph will occur
across much of the Panhandle. Temperatures were very mild around
60 degrees in many places all night last night. Wind and rain will
make travel difficult today.

This statement will be updated by 5 PM today or sooner if
conditions warrant.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
927 AM AKDT WED SEP 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PETERSBURG              56.81N 132.96W
09/26/2017  M3.02 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY EVENING AT
            PETERSBURG AIRPORT.

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SITKA                   57.05N 135.34W
09/27/2017  M3.31 INCH                          AK   ASOS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL MEASURED AT SITKA AIRPORT AS OF MIDNIGHT
            TUESDAY NIGHT.

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       POINT BAKER             56.35N 133.62W
09/27/2017  M3.36 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL AS OF 730 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

EAL