Gale Warning 182, NWS Juneau, AK

417 
FZAK67 PAJK 052322
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
322 PM AKDT Tue Sep 5 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-061730-
322 PM AKDT Tue Sep 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A low over the central gulf continues to track NW into the NW
gulf through Tues evening then into the W AK interior Wed. The
associated weather front will track northeast across the eastern
gulf Tue night and move into the Panhandle Wed.  

$$

PKZ310-061730-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
322 PM AKDT Tue Sep 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 12 ft.
Rain early in the evening. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell in the
evening. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers in the
evening. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

133 
FZAK67 PAJK 061146
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 AM AKDT Wed Sep 6 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-070200-
346 AM AKDT Wed Sep 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weather front will move slowly E across SE AK through Wed 
night. Another front will move NE into the eastern gulf by Thu 
evening. 

$$

PKZ310-070200-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
346 AM AKDT Wed Sep 6 2017

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell in the evening. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKDT Mon Sep 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A stalled weather front along 140 W will begin to move
northwest passing Cape Suckling Tue morning. A weaker front will
track northeast across the eastern gulf Tue night and move into
the Panhandle Wed. High pressure will persist across northern BC
through Tue night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Largescale meridional flow has aimed an atmospheric
river with estimated IVT of 4 to 6 standard deviations above
normal (from NAEFS) through northern Southeast Alaska today. A
digging trough well to our south will force a complimentary
response from a strong very warm high pressure ridge to the east.
Thus, the unseasonable warmth of the southern Panhandle (middle
70s due to 850 temps of 5 standard deviations above normal again
from NAEFS) will push northwest to the northern Panhandle
overnight into Tuesday, and the heaviest rain bands will shift
west of Yakutat by Tuesday morning. High temperature records could
be broken across the Panhandle Tuesday just as we will be
assessing potential record falls for today.

Yet another short-wave will help steer this massive ridge back to
the east again, and drive the conveyor belt of moisture back into
the Panhandle Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, at this time,
we do not see the rain amounts from the system today as we think
there will be weaker dynamics. However, there is at least some
suggestion that the front could stall again across the northern
Panhandle into Wednesday night which would enhance totals.

Finally, we did add areas of fog late tonight into Tuesday morning
for much of Southeast due to saturated conditions, lighter winds,
and potentially clearing skies. A few spots in the central
Panhandle may become dense at times.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...As of 2200 Sunday, the
trough currently positioned over the gulf will weaken to a
shortwave and lift northeast across the northern panhandle,
exiting the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Precipitation
should then spread throughout most of the region as the front
pushes through, rather than remaining over the northern extent as
it will have done during the previous days. The ridge stretching
out of the western CONUS should also begin to back down during
this timeframe, reverting most temperatures back to around normal
for this time of year. An additional trough containing embedded
shortwaves will then dig into the western gulf on Thursday. A
shortwave will eject out of the circulation Saturday night into
Sunday, possibly impacting the panhandle. Model solutions tend to
diverge at this point and do not have very good agreement as far
as the synoptic set up is concerned.

Overall, forecaster confidence remains about average for the long
term period.

&&

.AVIATION...Low level jet moving over the panhandle along frontal
boundary not mixing down to surface with continued speed shear
through the day. As the front moves north this LLJ will dissipate
today, with the exception of PAYA which remains under the
baroclinic zone.. IFR to LIFR conditions due to heavy rain and low
clouds have started lifting through the late afternoon. with
clearing skies and residual moisture expecting radiational fog
formation overnight with potential of IFR to possible LIFR
visibility reductions late tonight through early Tuesday. flight
categories will improve to VFR by the morning and last into the
late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...As stalled weather front with southeast winds to 25 kt
will eventually begin to move northwest Monday night. By Tuesday
morning the front will have passed Cape Suckling; however, a
parent low tracking northwest across the central gulf will tighten
gradients to necessitate gale warnings for Tuesday/Tuesday night
for zone 52. Meanwhile Yakutat Bay and Cross Sound will experience
high seas from 8 to 10 feet the next 24 hours. Winds and seas will
diminish across the region beginning Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...One to four inches of rain have fallen during the
course of the last 12 hours along the coast from Baranof Island
northwest to Yakutat. Amounts inland have ranged from 0.5 to 1.5
inches. Rivers have risen no higher than bankful, but there have
been significant impacts to transportation, mainly in Sitka. A
two- hour 1.10 inch catchment of rainfall between 9 and 11 AM with
a frequency interval on the order of once every ten years likely
contributed to a significant landslide along Halibut Point Road
between downtown and the ferry terminal. While reports suggest
that there were no injuries or fatalities nor major structural
damage, the road is currently blocked and closed to vehicular
traffic. While we are all thankful for no injuries or fatalities,
the rain will move west tonight away from Baranof and not come
back until Tuesday night giving the area a break for assessment
and cleanup.

As the rain moves west tonight, this will give watersheds a needed
break to ready for the next front Tuesday night/Wednesday, which
at this point looks to be weaker than the event today.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ022-053.

&&

Adkins/Boyd/Voveris

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1049 PM AKDT Mon Sep 4 2017

AKZ017-051900-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
1049 PM AKDT Mon Sep 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

Moderate to heavy rain will continue through Monday night and then
taper off late Tuesday morning across the northeast Gulf Coast.
Heavy rain will return to the area Tuesday night. Expected rain
totals through Wednesday are in the 5 to 7 inch range. Rain will
tapper off Wednesday morning as the entire trough aloft supporting
the surface front drifts east into Canada.

The heavy rain will result in large rises on streams and rivers.
Tahwa Creek and other streams may approach bankfull on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

There is potential for wash outs on the Forest Service road out
near the Dangerous River.

Stay tuned to updates from the National Weather Service on this
event.