Gale Warning 175, NWS Juneau, AK

321 
FZAK52 PAJK 202325
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
325 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-211730-
325 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front moving across the Gulf will move into the Panhandle 
tonight. An atmospheric river with abundant moisture from the 
remnants of dissipated typhoon Banyan will advect moisture across 
the western Gulf and panhandle through Monday. 

$$

PKZ041-211730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
325 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell in the morning.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-211730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
325 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-211730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
325 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt late. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-211730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
325 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-211730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
325 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain in
the evening. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

822 
FZAK52 PAJK 210330 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
730 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-212130-
730 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front moving across the Gulf will move into the  Panhandle
tonight. An atmospheric river with abundant moisture   from the
remnants of dissipated typhoon Banyan will advect  moisture
across the western Gulf and panhandle through Monday.  

$$

PKZ041-212130-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
730 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms then rain late.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell in the morning.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-212130-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
730 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms then rain late.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-212130-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
730 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft. 
Showers and isolated thunderstorms then rain late.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-212130-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
730 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-212130-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
730 PM AKDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain in
the evening. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 



$$

561 
FZAK52 PAJK 211158
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
358 AM AKDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-220600-
358 AM AKDT Mon Aug 21 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
As one weather front pushes onshore this morning along the 
northern gulf coast, another front will move N into the southern 
Panhandle today. A third front will advance into the SE gulf 
tonight and into the southern Panhandle Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-220600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
358 AM AKDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-220600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
358 AM AKDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
.WED...E wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-220600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
358 AM AKDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain late. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-220600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
358 AM AKDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding. S swell. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell in the morning.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-220600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
358 AM AKDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft late. S 
swell. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
300 PM AKDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday/As of 1430 this afternoon, a
surface ridge has built in out of the southeastern gulf. From what
we can see from radar (supplemented with IR satellite and surface
obs), some locations throughout the panhandle are experiencing
some scattered showers, with generally mostly cloudy conditions.
However, some areas in and around Cape Yakataga are experiencing
some slight clearing. In addition, winds are moderate throughout
many areas across the panhandle, save for areas in Northern Lynn
Canal and some zones along the eastern gulf waters, where we
currently have Small Craft Advisories issued.

For the rest of the weekend, the main story is the wet weather
expected beginning Sunday and going into the early part of next
week. A shortwave containing the remains of Typhoon Banyan is
currently located over the southwestern Gulf of Alaska, according
to WV satellite. This system will continue to dig into the gulf,
and multiple jet features will enhance the circulation, assisting
with additional moisture advection over the area and increasing
lift needed for heavier amounts of precipitation. Model runs
lately have indicated most of the moisture impacts may be focused
over the southern panhandle, but many areas can expect fairly wet
weather beginning Sunday night into Monday.

For the forecast, the NAM was used for changes to the PoP, and a
combination of models (including the NAM DNG, RFC, and ECMWF) were
utilized for changes to the QPF. Temps were also adjusted upwards
toward the early part of next week to account for warm air moving
in.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ The
extended forecast begins wet, with a weather front moving across
the Panhandle Monday. The associated low over the central Gulf
will slowly track southeast toward BC through Wednesday. Rainfall
will be heavy at times especially over the southern Panhandle;
this is due to large quantities of moisture being advected toward
the area from the remnants of tropical storm Banyan. Conditions
will gradually improve Tuesday and Wednesday with a break in
precipitation possible between Thursday and Friday. Then another
front is forecasted to move across the Panhandle next weekend.
Temperatures throught the extended forecast have little variation
between daytime and overnight hours, with a slight cooling trend
in the forecast through the week.

Monday's QPF values were adjusted using the 3 hourly run of the
00z GFS as a base with a 0.75 ratio applied and then blended at a
50/50 ratio with the existing forecast. This lead to an over all
increase in precipitation over the southern Panhandle consistent
with the enhanced moisture arriving from Banyan. Models have
shifted this band of moisture slightly further north from
yesterday. Tuesday and beyond a blend of the existing forecast and
RFCs values were used. This puts total rainfall between Monday
and Wednesday between 1 and 4 inches over the Panhandle with the
highest values over the southern Panhandle especially near
Ketchikan and Annette Island.

Most of the changes to the extended forecast were made between
Monday and Wednesday, due to above average model agreement. Since
the low was strengthened, winds were increased Monday to small
craft levels within the eastern Gulf. A blend of the NAM and GFS
was used Monday, with a ECMWF and GFS blend used through
Wednesday. WPC guidance was used beyond that timeframe. Overall
forecast confidence is above average in the long term although
precipitation totals could vary.

&&

.AVIATION...A trough aloft will be moving east across SEAK for the
remainder of Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. The back
edge of the rain in nearing the Yakutat area late this afternoon.
Clearing conditions in the northern part of the gulf evident on
satellite and the Cape Yakataga webcam imagery. MVFR to local IFR
flight conditions ongoing through the evening though should see
some night time deterioration. Potential for clearing over the
Yakutat region could see some patchy fog developing there
overnight, which could affect nighttime visibilities.

For Sunday Afternoon will begin to see the impacts of former
Typhoon Banyan advance towards the panhandle. Increasing winds may
increase the lower level turbulence near the terrain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Former Typhoon Banyan and developing AR out of the
North central Pacific will be dropping 1-2 inches into the
Panhandle through Sunday afternoon... best focus for rains will
be to the southern panhandle. The AR will favoring the southern
panhandle from Sunday night into Tuesday..so 4-7 inches expected.
With saturated soils, this rain should be directed into run off.
Increased water levels may threaten bankful, however presently we
are not expecting any flooding.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041.

&&

Voveris/Bezenek/Byrd

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