Gale Warning 174, NWS Juneau, AK

862 
FZAK67 PAJK 281120
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 AM AKDT Mon Aug 28 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-290530-
320 AM AKDT Mon Aug 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low will drift N from the North Pacific into the 
Western Gulf of Alaska through Monday. The associated weather 
front will move N and be over the northern gulf by Monday 
afternoon. The a cold front will stall over central gulf through 
Monday night as a wave drifts N through Tue. 

$$

PKZ310-290530-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
320 AM AKDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell early in the morning.
Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain late. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

961 
FZAK67 PAJK 282320
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 PM AKDT Mon Aug 28 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-291730-
320 PM AKDT Mon Aug 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low will drift N near Kodiak Island through
Tuesday. The associated warm front over the Northern gulf coast 
will move into Canada Monday evening. A cold front will stall over
central gulf through Tuesday morning before moving E across the 
panhandle through Wednesday morning. 

$$

PKZ310-291730-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
320 PM AKDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE...SE wind increasing to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 14 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas
12 ft. S swell. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. Showers in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Showers in
the evening. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

916 
FZAK67 PAJK 291136
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 AM AKDT Tue Aug 29 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-300545-
336 AM AKDT Tue Aug 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low will drift N near Kodiak Island through Wednesday.
The associated cold front over the central gulf will slowly move 
east across the gulf and Panhandle through Wednesday.

$$

PKZ310-300545-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
336 AM AKDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 15 ft. S
swell. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers in
the evening. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

792 
FZAK67 PAJK 292324
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
324 PM AKDT Tue Aug 29 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-301730-
324 PM AKDT Tue Aug 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weakening low near Kodiak Island will remain nearly stationary
through Wednesday. The associated cold front over the central 
gulf will slowly move east across the gulf and Panhandle through 
Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ310-301730-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
324 PM AKDT Tue Aug 29 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Rain
early in the evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Rain
showers in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
237 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Tuesday / Rather active short range
forecast today as we deal with the remains of the current system
tonight followed by a gale force front Mon into Mon night. What
remains of the current system is bringing showers to the northern
half of the panhandle this evening which will gradually diminish
through the night as easterly flow ahead of the next front
increases. Still have a slight chance of thunderstorms up for the
northern gulf and gulf coast this evening as the last of some
cooler air aloft and some upper level dynamics moves through.

Focus then shifts to a new system coming out of the northern
Pacific for Mon into Tue. The main low center will stay well to
the west of the area taking up a position south of Kodiak Island
by late Mon night. The initial warm front however will be moving
through the area Mon into Mon night from north to south bringing
some winds and rain. Highest winds mainly confined to the gulf
waters with gale force pre-frontal winds developing in the
northern gulf due to barrier jet effects Mon afternoon. For the
inner channels, winds will be switching to the N for many marine
areas, before switching back to the south post front. As for
rain, indications right now point to most of the rain staying west
of Kake and Stephens Passage through some light rain east of that
line is not out of the question. Highest amounts are expected
from Yakutat westward as an atmospheric river pumps tropical
moisture from near Hawaii into the northern gulf coast through
Tues night.

Behind the warm front the rest of the panhandle drys out as the
main cold front remains out in the gulf through Tue. As a result
the panhandle is looking at a period of warmer temperatures Tue
into Wed as indicated by rather high thickness values over the
area and guidance predictions of temperatures 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal in the warm sector of the storm. Ended up
raising temperatures a bit more over what the long term
forecaster did last evening for Tue (ended up with upper 60s for
most areas for highs Tue). It might also feel a little more humid
as well with dew point temperatures reaching into the mid to upper
50s during that time.

Guidance for the short term was rather good with not much model
disagreement on display today. Used mainly GFS and NAM for
guidance today.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...As of 900PM Sat...Little
change to forecast reasoning through the extended. Period begins
with an upper low over the W gulf with surface low moving N
towards Kodiak. Models in fairly good agreement on the track, but
differ some on the strength with central pressures ranging from
low 970s to low 980s Tue afternoon. This pattern favors precip
along the N gulf coast with persistent WAA across the rest of the
panhandle. Ensembles continue to indicate temps 1-2 standard dev
above normal Tue into Wed so nudged temps up a couple of degrees
Tue. As the low moves into the W gulf, SCA likely will develop
over the gulf with marginal gales over the offshore waters and
possible along the N gulf coast as barrier jet develops ahead of
the approaching low. Overall upper level pattern remains onshore
(W-SW) through the extended so maintained increased PoPs for the
latter half of the week to account for quickly moving mid level
impulses tracking across the region in the active flow pattern.
Forecast confidence about average early, but given the large
spread in ensembles and operational runs, it drops to below
average for the latter half of the week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041-042.

&&

EAL/BC

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