Gale Warning 162, NWS Juneau, AK

038 
FZAK52 PAJK 231158
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
358 AM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-240600-
358 AM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE 
TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE 
LOW. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE YAKUTAT AREA 
WEDNESDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-240600-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
358 AM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AND INCREASING TO 35 IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-240600-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
358 AM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-240600-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
358 AM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR CROSS SOUND. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 
KT NEAR CROSS SOUND. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-240600-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
358 AM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL.
SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-240600-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
358 AM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
7 FT. S SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL.
SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

913 
FZAK52 PAJK 232319
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
319 PM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-241730-
319 PM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
REMNANTS OF A LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE LOW. A WEAK WEATHER
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE YAKUTAT AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-241730-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
319 PM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 
12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-241730-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
319 PM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-241730-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
319 PM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-241730-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
319 PM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
LATE. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-241730-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
319 PM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

912 
FZAK52 PAJK 240830 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1230 AM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-241730-
1230 AM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
REMNANTS OF A LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE LOW. A WEAK WEATHER
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE YAKUTAT AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-241730-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
319 PM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 
12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-241730-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1230 AM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT NEAR CAPE DECISION. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-241730-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
319 PM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-241730-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
319 PM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
LATE. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-241730-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
319 PM AKDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

678 
FZAK52 PAJK 241201
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
401 AM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-250615-
401 AM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A
WEAK WEATHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE YAKUTAT AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH 
THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-250615-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
401 AM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-250615-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
401 AM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR CAPE DECISION IN
THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-250615-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
401 AM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
45 KT NEAR CROSS SOUND IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-250615-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
401 AM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-250615-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
401 AM AKDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 PM AKDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/ A front stalled over the
southern panhandle will move E of the area by late tonight. A weak
low will move into the SE gulf tonight, then across southern SE AK
Tue. A high pressure ridge will build in behind the low Tue
afternoon and Tue night. Used mainly 12z GFS to handle things
through Tue night, with main adjustment to shift the weak low a
little bit to the S of previous forecast. Did use 12z NAMnest to
help with some of the inner channel winds.

Main forecast concerns will be precip potential and winds.
Steadier rain with the front across the S should transition to
showers tonight as front moves E of them. The weak low will bring
more showers to the area late tonight and Tue, especially over the
S half of the area. Once the weak low moves E of the panhandle Tue
night, the shower threat should decrease from the NW. May see some
showers move into the far NW part of the area late Tue night as a
weak trof moves into the NW gulf.

Winds have dropped off over much of the area, with below SCA level
winds going on. Still around 20 KT over N Lynn Canal and Clarence
Strait this afternoon, but these will drop off tonight. More
significant winds will move into the area Tue and Tue night
especially along the outer coast as the high pressure ridge builds
in. Am expecting much of the E gulf to increase to NW 25-30 KT
Tue afternoon with some gales likely for areas around Cross Sound
and S of Port Alexander. The nearby western inner channels will
pick up to 20-25 KT by Tue evening as the NW flow increases ahead
of the ridge building in. Could be locally windy along the
southern outer coast as well Tue night.

Otherwise, some clearing should develop from the NW Tue into Tue
night over the panhandle as the NW flow gets going. May have
shallow marine layer clouds remaining over most of the gulf
though. Kept in mention of patchy fog for the far N area late tonight
as they may see more breaks in the clouds then. Think the fog over
the S will break up somewhat quickly this evening as front moves
out so will not mention it at this point.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/ As of 10 pm Sunday. For
the start of the long range, at upper levels main features will
be high pressure ridge over the eastern gulf with a low north of
the Bering sea with associated trough extending over the
Aleutians. As the upper low begins to shift to the east the gulf
ridge will narrow and sharpen. By Friday the upper level trough
will have moved over the central gulf with the ridge axis now
moved over British Columbia. For the rest of the weekend uncertain
if a wave will form over the northeast gulf.

At the surface the high pressure ridge will remain over the gulf
through the week. Main difference between previous forecasts is
indications that the trough from the Bering sea low will move a
short wave into the north central gulf and this wave may ride
over the surface ridge and impact at least the northeast gulf, if
not the north central panhandle. At most thinking this would be
scattered to isolated showers mid week but may just move in mid
level cloud cover. As this wave dissipates, a return to high
pressure being the dominant feature. Will be watching for marine
layer formation under this gulf high.

The other trend for the long range is warming temperatures aloft,
with 850 mb temps reaching 8 to 10 C by the weekend. Have
continued to keep warm surface temps in the forecast, but with
uncertainty of marine layer formation have held off on getting
above the upper 60's, however 70 and higher is not out of the
question. Did drop Yakutat temps a bit due to the incoming short
waves and onshore flow from ridge axis position.

Small craft winds on lee side of the ridge will diminish as the
axis moves east. Indication of tip jet formation near Cross Sound
and Cape Decision so keeping winds at least in the 15 to 20 kt
range for these locations. For rest of the inner channels not
expecting winds to be much more than 15 kt.

Used a blend of GFS/NAM, which were in good agreement for the mid
week wave in the northeast gulf. Tempered down any pops from these
models due to initial uncertainty. Otherwise forecast confidence
is average.

&&

.AVIATION...Less wind and no wind shear reported today but wide
spread MVFR conditions across the panhandle with some scattered
IFR for the southern half due to a lingering moisture stream aimed
at the area. Low vis and ceilings expected to continue through
the night as onshore flow continues. By late tonight and tomorrow
vis and ceiling will be improving up to MVFR or better from N to S
as a low moves across the southern gulf turning flow more
offshore. Showers will also be shutting off from N to S at the
same time through the south will see some showers linger into Tue
evening. Some gusty winds in places this evening but they are
expected to lighten up through the night and remain mostly low
tomorrow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Most of the small streams and smaller rivers are
falling at this point. Larger rivers are still rising though, but
they should begin to drop Tue. We are watching Mendenhall Lake
closely though as it began rising this morning even though there
was little or no precip in the area from last night through early
afternoon. Latest image this afternoon from Suicide Basin showed
it had risen compared to yesterdays image, so believe that is not
the cause of this rise.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

RWT/PRB

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