Gale Warning 152, NWS Juneau, AK

576 
FZAK52 PAJK 041143
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-050545-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low over the far SE gulf will move NW and weaken to a trough
over the central gulf by Sun night. A gale force low  will move
into the SW gulf Sun night with associated front moving into the
eastern gulf by Monday.  

$$

PKZ041-050545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 KT. Seas 9 FT. Showers early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 KT. Seas 9 FT. Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 35 KT. Gusts to 50 KT. Seas 13 FT. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 KT. Gusts to 45 KT. Seas 14 FT. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 KT. Seas 13 FT. 
.WED...SE wind 25 KT. Seas 10 FT. 
.THU...S wind 15 KT. Seas 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-050545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 KT. Seas 10 FT. Rain in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 KT. Seas 9 FT. Rain.
.MON...SE gale to 35 KT. Gusts to 50 KT. Seas 13 FT. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 KT. Gusts to 45 KT. Seas 14 FT. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 KT. Seas 13 FT. 
.WED...SE wind 25 KT. Seas 10 FT. 
.THU...S wind 15 KT. Seas 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-050545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 KT. Seas 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 KT. Seas 9 FT. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 KT. Gusts to 50 KT. Seas 13 FT. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 KT. Gusts to 50 KT. Seas 14 FT. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 KT. Seas 14 FT. 
.WED...SE wind 25 KT. Seas 10 FT. 
.THU...E wind 20 KT becoming W 10 KT. Seas 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-050545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 KT. Seas 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 KT. Seas 8 FT. 
.MON...E gale to 35 KT. Seas 12 FT. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...E gale to 35 KT. Gusts to 50 KT. Seas 14 FT. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 KT. Seas 13 FT. 
.WED...SE wind 25 KT becoming E 15 KT. Seas 12 FT subsiding 
to 7 FT.
.THU...E wind 20 KT becoming W 10 KT. Seas 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-050545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
343 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming E 10 KT in the afternoon. Seas 
5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 KT increasing to 25 KT late. Seas 6 FT.
.MON...E gale to 35 KT. Seas 12 FT. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...E gale to 35 KT. Gusts to 50 KT. Seas 14 FT. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 KT. Seas 13 FT. 
.WED...E wind 20 KT. Seas 11 FT. 
.THU...E wind 15 KT becoming NW. Seas 7 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
206 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low west of Haida Gwaii continues to move north
slowly through Sunday. This low will then dissipate Sunday night
about 250 nm west of Sitka. A gale force low will move into the
southwest Gulf of Alaska Sunday night with associated front moving
into the eastern gulf by Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Showers over the northeast gulf coast will diminish
this evening while north central panhandle will remain mostly dry
through Sunday. Satellite imagery showing clear breaks over the
central areas today but with advancing cloud deck from the south
and east. Southern areas still impacted by showers from the Haida
Gwaii low. More wide spread precipitation for the Monday front
with higher QPF values due to greater southerly moisture feed.

Not much change in model for next 24 hours, main change was on
monday where the easterly pressure gradient now tightening up and
increase in gulf wind speeds. Used a blend of 12z NAM/GFS to
update grids. Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday as of 1015 pm Friday/ Upper
trof over the E gulf will be moving W and weakening as an upper
low moves into the NE PAC/S gulf area by Mon night. Models are
differing on what the new upper low does, with GFS showing it
taking a SE turn as upstream ridging builds, while the Canadian
and ECMWF keep the low further N but main core is still S of the
area. Latest model runs have trended S with this feature and this
may allow for a drier spell to develop during the latter part of
next week. However, confidence is on the low side since this
trend is fairly new in the models. Ended up using latest WPC to
handle things for late Mon night onward, which is a bit further S
with the main low over the gulf than previous forecast, but N of
the latest models. Later shifts will need to monitor this trend to
see if it persists and adjust the forecast accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...Low pressure continues to spin W of Haida Gwaii with
impulses rotating around the circulation. The next impulse is
moving into the S panhandle this afternoon and will push N into
the central panhandle this evening as the low moves towards the
outer coast before moving W into the central gulf. LLJ with this
low will produce gusty winds, ocnl MDT LL turb and WSCONS over
the southern and central panhandle. MVMC cigs/vsby in stronger
showers overnight and Sun. Enough instability that there is a
slight chance TSTMs through 04/03Z but confidence too low to
include in any TAF. Shower regime will persist Sun but should be a
diminishing trend as the low moves away from the coast.

&&

.MARINE...Gale force winds and max small craft winds over Clarence
Strait and the SE gulf this evening due to the Haida Gwaii low
will diminish later tonight. Northern inner channel wind
directions will flip N as the low advances then flip back S as
when the low dissipates tomorrow. The Monday gulf front will once
again increase winds, have bumped winds up to gale force again.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Two glacier dam releases ongoing. One is along the
Taku River from the draining of Lake No Lake and the other is on
the Mendenhall Lake/River from Suicide Basin. At this time there
is no threat of flooding as river levels at the start of the event
were low. A special weather statement was issue for these events
providing more detail.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ033>035-041>043.

&&

PRB/BPC/RWT

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