Wind Advisory 26, NWS Fairbanks, AK

389 
WWAK72 PAFG 010746
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1146 PM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

AKZ217-011600-
/O.UPG.PAFG.WI.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-170801T0800Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.HW.W.0005.170801T0746Z-170801T1800Z/
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Ambler, Shungnak, and Kobuk
1146 PM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect until 10 AM AKDT Tuesday. The Wind
Advisory is no longer in effect. 

* LOCATION...Near the Brooks Range.

* WINDS...South gusting to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Strong gusty winds will decrease Tuesday morning. 

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will make travel difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
628 AM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.DISCUSSION...
It looks to be an active few days, particularly for the West
Coast. The main forecast challenge for this shift will be a
weather front that will push into the West Coast today, bringing
a decent amount of rainfall along with strong winds. Overall, the
models are in decent agreement with the overall positioning of
the main synoptic features in the short term.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 575 dam high currently sits near Tok with a
ridge extending north along the Canadian Border. This ridge will
move eastward today as a trough moves from the Bering Sea into
the West Coast.

At the surface, a 1023 mb high near the Mackenzie Delta will
continue to move east today. A 1001 mb low over the Chukotsk
Peninsula will move to 150 NM NW of Point Hope by this evening at
998 mb. This low will continue to move to the northeast and will
be 150 NM NW of Wainwright by early Tuesday morning at 996 mb
before being absorbed into the flow around a much stronger low
centered near 83N 160W.

West Coast and Western Interior: A weather front associated with
the aforementioned low moving through across the Chuckchi Sea
will push into the west coast today. This front will bring periods
of rainfall to much of of the West Coast today, with scattered
rain showers today in the Western Interior in advance of the
front. The front will also bring southerly winds of 20 to 30 mph
with gusts as high 45 mph during the day today (the strongest
winds will be along south-facing coasts and in channeled areas
prone to southerly winds). Winds will die down this evening as the
front pushes inland. Tonight the heaviest rainfall will move into
the Western Interior. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches will be
possible by late Monday night over the southern Seward Peninsula,
the Chuckchi Sea Coast north of Cape Krusenstern and for the
Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys due to upslope enhancement.

A second upper level disturbance will bring another round of
rainfall to the West Coast Tuesday afternoon and evening and to
the Western Interior Tuesday night. Up to another 3/4 inch of rain
is possible with this system, with the heaviest rainfall expected
in the Western Interior with this system. Some localized areas in
the Upper Kobuk an Noatak Valleys could see in excess of an inch
with the second system. This, when combined with previous rainfall
will result in a two day rainfall total in some areas over two
inches.

North Slope: Gusty southerly winds are expected to develop this
evening as the front approaches. Gusty southerly winds will
continue through the night tonight before becoming more westerly
and decreasing in magnitude Tuesday. The strongest wind look to
be in areas west of Point Lay as well as along and just north of
Brooks Range Passes where gusts up to 45 mph are expected. On
Tuesday morning winds near passes in the eastern Brooks Range
could approach 55 mph (if the NAM solution comes to pass),
although the NAM is much more bullish than the other models on
this point, and current grids represent a middle of the road
solution on this point. The front will bring periods of rainfall
to areas west of Barrow today, although rainfall amounts north of
the Brooks range will be far less than south of the range.

Central and Eastern Interior: Isolated thunderstorms are possible
today across much of the area. Tomorrow looks to be cooler than
today for most areas. Increased cloud cover combined with moist
southwesterly flow and cooler temperatures will help to limit the
potential for thunderstorms Tuesday through the end of the week.
Gusty southerly gap winds are expected at times from this
afternoon into Wednesday morning; however current thinking is that
winds will remain under advisory criteria.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated thunderstorms today across much of the Central and
Eastern Interior today; however, thunderstorm potential for much
of the rest of the week will be limited across the area due to
increased cloud cover. A weather system will bring increased
chances for wetting rainfall to the West Coast and Western
Interior today into tonight, with another weather round of
rainfall expected Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.

Minimum RH values will be above 30 percent for most of the
forecast area The only exception to this is in the Yukon Flats
where some areas may drop below 25 percent today; however, winds
in these dry areas are expected to be below 15 mph. Moist
southwest flow across across the forecast area on Tuesday,
combined with increased cloud cover will result in generally
cooler temperatures for most areas along with higher minimum RH
values.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The rainfall described in the West Coast section above will likely cause
rapid rises in smaller creeks and streams, with rises in the
larger rivers draining out of the western Brooks Range. The larger
rivers are expected to remain below bankfull stage.

Flood Advisory continues for the Tetlin Road area as Tanana river
is running high and water is flowing into the area around 5.3
mile Tetlin Road. Conditions will improve as river goes down this
week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.
&&

JUL 17