Small Craft Advisory 75, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
315 PM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper level low over the Arctic will allow moist
southwesterly flow to persist across the forecast through
Thursday. An active pattern with multiple weather fronts moving
onshore will bring periods of rain and clouds to much of the
forecast area, especially the western half of the state. Forecast
models are in good agreement with a drying and warming trend
toward the end of the week as ridging builds over the Interior.

A weather front moving eastward across northern Alaska is the
primary forecast concern during the next 24 hours. This system
will bring heavy rainfall tonight and Wednesday to western and
central Alaska. The most significant rainfall with totals up to
2 inches will be focused on the favorable upslope areas of the
Brooks Range north of Ambler and Kobuk. The rainfall will become
more showery as the front moves into the eastern Interior on
Wednesday with much lighter amounts. Another pulse of moisture
will move into Interior Wednesday night and Thursday but amounts
should be one inch or less with even lighter amounts toward the
Canadian border.

Strong southwesterly winds associated with the front gusting from
30 to 40 mph along the North Slope and Arctic Coast will diminish
early this evening as the front moves east and weakens.
Relatively strong southwest winds aloft and a tight pressure
gradient through the Brooks Range will continue, so gusty winds
over higher terrain and in Brooks Range Passes will persist into
Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns in the short term as a weather front
moving across the Interior brings rain and keeps minimum relative
humidities above 50 percent almost everywhere. Drier and warmer
this weekend as ridging rebuilds across the Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Another 1 to 2 inches of rain in the central Brooks Range tonight
falling on already saturated soils will bring rapid rises and
minor flooding to some small streams. The primary focus for the
heavy rain is in the upper Kobuk, Noatak, and Alatna River
valleys. Larger stem rivers will see rises over the next several
days but remain below flood stage. Minor flooding along the Tetlin
Village road near Tok is expected to continue through at least
Friday as the Tanana River remains high.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
Flood Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ224

&&

AUG 17