Small Craft Advisory 71, NWS Fairbanks, AK

646 
FZAK52 PAFG 302355
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
355 PM AKDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-311415-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jul 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1003 mb low near Anadyr will move NE across the Chukotsk 
Peninsula on Monday to be located 250 miles N of Barrow by 10 am 
Tuesday. An associated weather front will cross the Bering Sea 
tonight to move onshore over the west coast Mon morning. Weak 
high pressure moves in behind the front. Weak 1007 mb low pressure
will move north of the Aleutians Wed to be located near St. Paul 
Island Wed night.

$$

PKZ200-311415-
Norton Sound-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jul 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to
4 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-311415-
Dall Point to Wales-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jul 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-311415-
Kotzebue Sound-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jul 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to
4 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-311415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jul 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building
to 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

NS/JB Jul 17

087 
FZAK52 PAFG 311229
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
429 AM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-010215-
429 AM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1001 mb low over the Chukotsk Peninsula will move to 150 NM NW 
of Point Hope by this evening at 998 mb. An associated weather 
front will push into the west coast today. The low will continue 
to move to the northeast and will be 150 NM NW of Wainwright by 
early Tuesday morning at 996 mb before being absorbed into the 
flow around a much stronger low centered near 83N 160W. 

$$

PKZ200-010215-
Norton Sound-
429 AM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-010215-
Dall Point to Wales-
429 AM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-010215-
Kotzebue Sound-
429 AM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU...E winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-010215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
429 AM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 17

984 
FZAK52 PAFG 312305
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 PM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-011415-
305 PM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 998 mb low 200 nm northwest of Point Hope will move to 300 nm 
north of Prudhoe Bay as a 996 mb low by 4pm Tue and then continue 
moving northeast. A 1007 mb Low developing near Anadyr by 4am Tue
will move the Bering Strait as a 1006 mb low by 4pm Tue, to 150 
nm north of Prudhoe Bay as a 1006 mb low by 4pm Wed, then 
continue moving northeast and dissipating Wed night. A third low 
will move north into the central Bering Sea Wed and into the 
northeast Bering Sea on Thu.


$$

PKZ200-011415-
Norton Sound-
305 PM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. Fog.
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-011415-
Dall Point to Wales-
305 PM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. Fog. 
Vsby less than 1 nm.
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-011415-
Kotzebue Sound-
305 PM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog, rain.
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ220-011415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
305 PM AKDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. Fog.
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 17

268 
FZAK52 PAFG 011143
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
343 AM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-020215-
343 AM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 995 mb low is currently 150 NM NW of Wainwright with a front 
extending from the low south to near McGrath. This low will move
to 280 NM NE of Barrow by this evening at 996 mb. The low will 
weaken overnight tonight and will be absorbed into the flow around
a 989 mb low located near 85N 140W. A 1006 mb low will form near 
Kotzebue this evening and will move to 75 NM SE of Barrow by 
tomorrow morning at 1005 mb and to 150 NM N of Kaktovik by 
tomorrow evening at 1009 mb. 

$$

PKZ200-020215-
Norton Sound-
343 AM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-020215-
Dall Point to Wales-
343 AM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-020215-
Kotzebue Sound-
343 AM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-020215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
343 AM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt becoming E. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
225 PM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A Ridge aloft over the Eastern Interior will build through Monday
and then weaken slowly on Tue. This is causing generally generally
warm condition over the Eastern Interior and will allow afternoon
and evening convection around the perimeter of the ridge which is
most of the eastern Interior excepting the area northeast of Fort
Yukon.

Surface...
A 995 mb low 400 nm northwest of Barrow will move to 600 nm north
of Barrow as a 984 mb low by 4pm Sun and then continue moving
north. A warm front stretching from this low to McKenzie Bay will
move east tonight. A cold front stretching from this low to
Wainwright to the Yukon Delta will move to Deadhorse to Point Hope
by 4am Sun, and to Inuvik to Anaktuvuk Pass to Point Hope by 4pm
Sun. Expect scattered rain showers along the cold front. Expect
winds to become west 15-25kt along the cold front with the
strongest winds north of the Arctic Coast closer to the low
center. Showers will diminish to isolated west of the front.

A thermal trough stretching from Chicken to Atigun Pass will
Persist through Monday and then dissipate Tue. Expect isolated
thunderstorms along and southwest of the trough today through
Monday with most thunderstorms in the afternoons and evening.
Area northeast of Fort Yukon will remain dry and hot through Mon.

A low now in the Sea of Okhotsk will move to near Anadyr by 4pm
Sun, to 100 nm northwest of Point Hope as a 1001 mb low by 4pm
Mon, and to 400 nm north of Prudhoe Bay as a 998 mb low by 4pm
Tue. A cold front trailing from this low will move to the central
Bering Sea by 4pm Sun afternoon, to Barrow to Bethel by 4pm Mon,
and to Barter Island to Bethel by 4pm Tue. Expect south winds
20-30 kt along the track of the low and along the cold front.
Expect widespread rain with the front as well. Expect .50-1.0
inch of rain along the West Coast of Alaska Mon and Mon night,
with 0.25-0.50 inch in the western and central Interior Mon night
and Tue. This will cause rivers to remain high next week across
the West Coast and western Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well and show similar solutions through Wed and
then see divergence in model solutions from Thu on. We will use
the GFS for most features through Wed and then merge to a more
ECMF and mean approach for late next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry continuing northeast of Fort Yukon through Mon.
Isolated PM thunderstorms in the remainder of the eastern
Interior through Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers will remain above normal along the West Coast and Western
Interior through next week but no flooding seen. Rivers near
normal remainder of Northern Alaska.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

JB JUL 17