Small Craft Advisory 70, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
225 PM AKDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A Ridge aloft over the Eastern Interior will build through Monday
and then weaken slowly on Tue. This is causing generally generally
warm condition over the Eastern Interior and will allow afternoon
and evening convection around the perimeter of the ridge which is
most of the eastern Interior excepting the area northeast of Fort
Yukon.

Surface...
A 995 mb low 400 nm northwest of Barrow will move to 600 nm north
of Barrow as a 984 mb low by 4pm Sun and then continue moving
north. A warm front stretching from this low to McKenzie Bay will
move east tonight. A cold front stretching from this low to
Wainwright to the Yukon Delta will move to Deadhorse to Point Hope
by 4am Sun, and to Inuvik to Anaktuvuk Pass to Point Hope by 4pm
Sun. Expect scattered rain showers along the cold front. Expect
winds to become west 15-25kt along the cold front with the
strongest winds north of the Arctic Coast closer to the low
center. Showers will diminish to isolated west of the front.

A thermal trough stretching from Chicken to Atigun Pass will
Persist through Monday and then dissipate Tue. Expect isolated
thunderstorms along and southwest of the trough today through
Monday with most thunderstorms in the afternoons and evening.
Area northeast of Fort Yukon will remain dry and hot through Mon.

A low now in the Sea of Okhotsk will move to near Anadyr by 4pm
Sun, to 100 nm northwest of Point Hope as a 1001 mb low by 4pm
Mon, and to 400 nm north of Prudhoe Bay as a 998 mb low by 4pm
Tue. A cold front trailing from this low will move to the central
Bering Sea by 4pm Sun afternoon, to Barrow to Bethel by 4pm Mon,
and to Barter Island to Bethel by 4pm Tue. Expect south winds
20-30 kt along the track of the low and along the cold front.
Expect widespread rain with the front as well. Expect .50-1.0
inch of rain along the West Coast of Alaska Mon and Mon night,
with 0.25-0.50 inch in the western and central Interior Mon night
and Tue. This will cause rivers to remain high next week across
the West Coast and western Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well and show similar solutions through Wed and
then see divergence in model solutions from Thu on. We will use
the GFS for most features through Wed and then merge to a more
ECMF and mean approach for late next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry continuing northeast of Fort Yukon through Mon.
Isolated PM thunderstorms in the remainder of the eastern
Interior through Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers will remain above normal along the West Coast and Western
Interior through next week but no flooding seen. Rivers near
normal remainder of Northern Alaska.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

JB JUL 17