Small Craft Advisory 60, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
607 AM AKDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A series of short waves will affect northern Alaska over the
next few days. The short wave that had moved southeast over
mainland Alaska as far as Prudhoe Bay, Bettles, and Galena at
this time on Thursday now lies from Eagle southwest to near Delta
then westward over the Alaska Range. It will continue southeast
today. The atmosphere has stabilized over the interior to the
north and west of the front, but convection is still expected
near the front and to its southeast. The next wave is presently
just west of Wrangel Island. That one will move pretty much due
east, having little impact south of the Brooks range, and will
not produce as much rainfall as the previous one, even from
the Brooks Range north.

The third short wave appears to be the strongest of the three.
It is still west of Kamchatka, but will move northeast over
eastern mainland Russia through Saturday, then into the northern
Chukchi Sea late Saturday night. The weather front associated
with it will move east over the Bering Sea, and will move ashore
from northwest Alaska to the Seward Peninsula early Sunday. It
will continue east Sunday and Sunday night, likely bringing
substantial rainfall to most of northern Alaska at some point.

Some heavy surf potential at Barrow from midnight until noon
Saturday. This appears to be a really marginal event, with winds
at Barrow probably not quite 25 kt. The fetch is good, though.
We will chew on this one a bit more.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The atmosphere has stabilized over the northern interior, though
it appears that there will be some destabilization there Saturday
afternoon and evening. The weather front from Eagle to Delta and
westward over the Alaska Range is decelerating, but will continue
to make some progress south and east. Convective potential
persists today to its south and east, and near it to its north
and west.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Substantial rain has fallen over the Brooks range in the past
couple of days, with accumulations between one half inch and
one inch common, certainly enough to affect area rivers. On the
other hand, recent model runs indicate that the rainfall from
the strong short wave coming in Sunday through Monday will
be heaviest in the Interior, rather than the Brooks Range. We
will continue to keep an eye farther north though.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

DJH JUL 17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1249 PM AKDT Fri Jul 21 2017

AKZ203-204-206-230200-
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, Kuparuk,
Kaktovik, Flaxman Island, Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass,
Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, and Franklin Bluffs
1249 PM AKDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...Rapid Rises on Rivers Through Early Next Week...

A series of storm systems is expected to bring several rounds of
heavy rainfall in the Eastern Brooks Range and eastern North Slope
through Monday of next week. Rapid rises in rivers and streams
east of the Colville River can be expected into early next week.

Heavy rains associated with the first storm system have diminished
however another round of heavy rain with a second storm system is
expected to begin tonight and will continue into Saturday
morning. A third storm system is expected to bring yet another
round of heavy rain to the area beginning Sunday night and will
continue into Monday. Additional rainfall amounts of one inch or
more are expected through Monday.

As the rainfall makes its way into the drainages, sharp rises may
occur in a short period of time. Rivers will rise rapidly in the
Brooks Range and elevated water levels will spread to the coast.

Rivers may rise and fall then rise again after the second and
third surges of rain makes it into the river basins.

Extreme caution should be used if you are on or near the rivers,
or attempting to cross the rivers.

For the latest forecasts go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks

AKZ201-202-230200-
Western Arctic Coast-Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, Cape Lisburne, Barrow,
Alaktak, Pitt Point, and Nulavik
1249 PM AKDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...High Surf Possible Sunday Afternoon through Monday...

An series of early season storms will bring persistent west to
northwest winds along the coast north of Wainwright to Barrow
beginning tonight and continuing through Monday. Another storm
system is forecast to move into the southern Chukchi Sea Sunday.
The exact track of the second system will have a large influence
on storm surge values. At this time the highest surf levels are
expected to begin Sunday afternoon and continue through Monday.
Storm surge is expected to be 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels
with wave run up likely reaching high water line Sunday evening.
Localized beach erosion will be possible beginning Sunday
afternoon and continuing into Monday. Those with interests along
the shore should move boats and other valuables above the high
water line.

Special Weather Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1254 PM AKDT Fri Jul 21 2017

AKZ203-204-206-230200-
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, Kuparuk,
Kaktovik, Flaxman Island, Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass,
Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, and Franklin Bluffs
1254 PM AKDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...Rapid Rises on Rivers Through Early Next Week...

A series of storm systems is expected to bring several rounds of
heavy rainfall in the Eastern Brooks Range and eastern North Slope
through Monday of next week. Rapid rises in rivers and streams
east of the Colville River can be expected into early next week.

Heavy rains associated with the first storm system have diminished
however another round of heavy rain with a second storm system is
expected to begin tonight and will continue into Saturday
morning. A third storm system is expected to bring yet another
round of heavy rain to the area beginning Sunday night and will
continue into Monday. Additional rainfall amounts of one inch or
more are expected through Monday.

As the rainfall makes its way into the drainages, sharp rises may
occur in a short period of time. Rivers will rise rapidly in the
Brooks Range and elevated water levels will spread to the coast.

Rivers may rise and fall then rise again after the second and
third surges of rain makes it into the river basins.

Extreme caution should be used if you are on or near the rivers,
or attempting to cross the rivers.

For the latest forecasts go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks

AKZ201-202-230200-
Western Arctic Coast-Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, Cape Lisburne, Barrow,
Alaktak, Pitt Point, and Nulavik
1254 PM AKDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...High Surf Possible Sunday Afternoon through Monday...

A series of early season storms will bring persistent west to
northwest winds along the coast north of Wainwright to Barrow
beginning tonight and continuing through Monday. Another storm
system is forecast to move into the southern Chukchi Sea Sunday.
The exact track of the second system will have a large influence
on storm surge values. At this time the highest surf levels are
expected to begin Sunday afternoon and continue through Monday.
Storm surge is expected to be 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels
with wave run up likely reaching high water line Sunday evening.
Localized beach erosion will be possible beginning Sunday
afternoon and continuing into Monday. Those with interests along
the shore should move boats and other valuables above the high
water line.