Small Craft Advisory 48, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 PM AKDT Sun Jul 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A ridge stretching from NW Canada west across northern Alaska will
persist through Mon. There will be a ridge building from Tue into
Wed with h500 heights higher than 576 DM over all northern Alaska
by Wed. Several short waves moving west across the southern
Interior today through Tue will cause periods of showers across
the Interior through Tue. Will see a warming and drying trend
under this ridge over northern Alaska from Wed through next
weekend.

A strong short wave trough stretching from Anvik to Anaktuvuk
Pass will move to Cape Romanzof to the Bering Strait to Kivalina
by 4am Mon and then continuing west. There is a band of showers
and scattered thunderstorms along the entire length of this trough
and expect up to one half inch of precip with it. That will taper
off to scattered to isolated showers tonight as the trough moves
over the sea.

A weak short wave over the southeast Interior will move to Kaltag
to Ambler by 4am Mon and to Nome to Point Hope by 4pm Mon. Expect
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along this feature.

A third short wave now in the Yukon of Canada will move to
Livengood to Eagle by 4am Mon, then stretch out from Ambler to
Fairbanks to Northway by 4pm Mon and persist through 4am Tue, then
moving to Northway to McGrath to Kotzebue by 4pm Tue. This
feature will have the significant precip...with .50-1.0 inch west
of Fairbanks through Tue am, and 1-2 inches From Fairbanks south
and east through Tue am. Could see another 0.50 to 1.0 inches
southeast of Delta Junction Tue with this.

Surface...
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast will build on Mon and
Tue. This will keep stratus and fog along the coast from midnight
through noon each day, and cause east winds along the Arctic Coast
to increase to 25 kt Mon pm.

A surface thermal trough stretching from Galena to Livengood to
Eagle will move to Kivalina to Circle to Eagle by 4am Mon...
to Kivalina to Fort Yukon to Eagle by 4pm Mon...then to Point Hope
to Fairbanks to Chicken by 4pm Tue. Will see west winds 10g20 mph
south of the trough and east winds 10g20 mph north of the trough.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models Initialize and show similar solutions through 4pm Mon,
after that the NAM and ECMF have a strong short wave trough moving
across the extreme southeast Interior on Mon night and Tue than
the GFS solution.

GFS, ECMF and NAM all show significant precip of the eastern
Interior tonight and Mon, but differ significantly in location
and timing of heaviest amounts. At this point favor the GFS
solution through 4pm Mon as it matches the ECMF location fairly
well. For Mon night through Wed will use a mix of GFS and ECMF
with the heaviest precip southeast of Fairbanks.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warming and drying from Tue through Wed then remaining dry and
very warm Wed through next weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect 1-2 inches of rain tonight through Tue from Fairbanks
south and east. Heaviest rain will be Mon and Mon night over the
upper Chena, upper Salcha, lower Charlie, and all of the
Goodpasture river basins. This could lead to bankfull levels in
those rivers by Tue. Precip in all of these rivers will have to
be closely monitored, with a slight chance of flooding as soon as
Tue in the Goodpasture and Charlie River basins.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
&&

JB JUL 17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 PM AKDT SUN JUL 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE LAKE MINCHUMINA   63.86N 152.27W
07/09/2017                   YUKON-KOYUKUK      AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTED A SMALL METAL BOAT
            AROUND 16FT LONG MOORED NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE
            OF LAKE MINCHUMINA SUNK AROUND 1:20 AM
            SUNDAY. THIS WAS MOST LIKELY DUE TO STRONG
            WINDS FROM A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
            THAT WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR MOVING TOWARD
            MINCHUMINA THROUGH 11 PM LAST NIGHT BEFORE
            MOVING OUT OF RADAR RANGE.

&&