Small Craft Advisory 39, NWS Fairbanks, AK

481 
FZAK51 PAFG 272200
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-281430-
200 PM AKDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1015 mb high pressure center over the central and eastern 
Beaufort Sea will linger for the remainder of the week, gradually 
strengthening to around 1025 mb and drifting east to near Banks 
Island Thursday morning. The high center will continue to drift 
north and east over the Canadian Archipelago through the weekend.

$$

PKZ225-281430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
200 PM AKDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-281430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
200 PM AKDT Tue Jun 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-281430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
200 PM AKDT Tue Jun 27 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-281430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
200 PM AKDT Tue Jun 27 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog.
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-281430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
200 PM AKDT Tue Jun 27 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Fog.
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

CCC Jun 17

662 
FZAK51 PAFG 281243
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
443 AM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-290230-
443 AM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1018 mb high over the Beaufort Sea will build tonight and persist
through Fri. A low pressure trough over the southern Interior 
will move to Point Lay to Eagle by 4pm today...to Wainwright to 
Eagle by 4am Thu...to Barrow to Eagle by 4pm Thu then dissipating.

$$

PKZ225-290230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
443 AM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.TODAY...SE winds 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. 
Seas building to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...S winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ230-290230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
443 AM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 6 
ft.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-290230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
443 AM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Fog. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-290230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
443 AM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Fog. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. Fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-290230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
443 AM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Fog. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jun 17

219 
FZAK51 PAFG 282234
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 PM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-291445-
234 PM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1018 mb high over the Beaufort Sea will continue to build 
as it drifts to the east to be near Banks Island Friday. A low 
pressure trough over the interior of Alaska will persist through 
Friday.

$$

PKZ225-291445-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
234 PM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...S winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-291445-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
234 PM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft.
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-291445-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
234 PM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 5 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-291445-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
234 PM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-291445-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
234 PM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

CCC Jun 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
227 PM AKDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concerns will be thunderstorm potential and coverage
over the Interior, Brooks Range, and North Slope, gap winds near
Alaska Range passes, and stratus/fog issues along the Arctic
Coast. 26/12Z model guidance suite seems to be in good agreement
throughout the forecast period in regards to synoptic pattern and
features.

Aloft...An upper level shortwave over the Yukon Flats and Upper
Yukon River Valley will move east into the Yukon Territories
tonight and then will lift northeast over the Richardson Mountains
and northern British Columbia Tuesday into Wednesday. A 533 dam
upper low near Atka will merge with an upstream shortwave over the
Pribilof Islands early Tuesday. This will, in turn, amplify the
downstream ridge over western Canada, promoting deep southerly
flow over the entire state by late Tuesday night that will
continue through early Thursday.

Surface...A 1015 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the
Beaufort Sea will move east tonight and then towards the Canadian
Archipelago by Wednesday night at 1022 mb. A 991 mb low west of
St Matthew Island will shift to be over the Pribilof Islands
Tuesday afternoon and then drift northwest towards the Gulf of
Anadyr Thursday morning. Meanwhile, a weak low over Kamchatka
Peninsula will move out into the western Bering Sea Tuesday night
and then will move east south of the Aleutian Islands through
late Wednesday. Thermal troughing will develop over the Interior
again on Tuesday, and will shift over the Brooks Range and North
Slope for Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Easterly surface flow will develop
this evening as the surface high shifts to the east and will
continue through the rest of the week. Periods of fog and stratus
is expected to accompany this easterly flow and at times will see
visibilities drop below one mile. There is a possibility for
isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening over the
Brooks Range and western Arctic Coast as a few weak upper level
shortwaves move north around the Bering Sea low.

West Coast and Western Interior...A shortwave and associated
surface front will continue to lift northward from the low in the
Bering Sea tonight bringing showers to St Lawrence Island, Norton
Sound, and the YK Delta. Chances of rain will persist through this
week as disturbances rotate around the Bering Sea low along the
West Coast. Over the Western Interior, chances for rain showers
will develop Tuesday afternoon and evening with chances for
showers continuing through Thursday morning. There is a potential
Tuesday afternoon and evening for isolated thunderstorms over the
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys. Daytime temperatures will be
cooler over the western Interior Tuesday and Wednesday with
temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s. For coastal areas, daytime
temperatures will range from the 50s to 60s through Thursday.

Eastern and Central Interior...Upper level shortwave over the
northeastern Interior will continue to be the focus for convection
from Livengood to North Pole and east this evening. Over 1000
lightning strikes have been recorded since convection developed
this morning. Had to adjust the forecast to include scattered
thunderstorms based current trends. Some of the stronger storms
will have heavy downpours, small hail, and gusty winds. Expecting
convection to dissipate after 10 pm with a few lingering
thunderstorms persisting over the far eastern Interior into early
tomorrow morning. A thermal trough will develop over the Interior
tomorrow with a chance of showers for most of the Interior along
with isolated thunderstorms over an area stretching from Indian
Mountain to Bettles southeast to Livengood and Fort Yukon and over
the Fortymile Country. The focus for convection will shift
further north into the Brooks Range for Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Southerly flow will persist over the Alaska Range and
southern Interior with gap winds through Alaska Range passes this
week. Gap winds will be 15 to 30 mph through Tuesday, increasing
along the Parks Highway Tuesday evening to 15 ro 25 with gusts to
40 mph. Temperatures will remain in the lower to mid 70s early
this week...climbing into the mid to upper 70s and lower 80s by
Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from Fort Yukon
south in zone 220 and 224 where over 1000 lightning strikes have
been recorded so far today . As a result a Red Flag Warning for
abundant lightning is in effect until 10 pm this evening.
Thunderstorms across this area will weaken and dissipate later
this evening.

Gap winds through Alaska Range passes will persist through the
rest of the week. There is some concern regarding the potential of
red flag conditions this evening in zone 226, but it looks like
RH values and winds will fall short of the red flag criteria.

Thermal troughing looks to redevelop for the Interior tomorrow
with isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms for zones 217, 218
219, 220 and 224, with the threat of convection shifting north
into the Brooks Range for Wednesday.

Chances of rain and higher humidity is expected from tomorrow
through the rest of this week for the west Interior as weak
disturbances rotate northward from the broad upper low in the
Bering Sea. Dry weather will persist for the Yukon Flats and
southeastern Brooks Range with min RH values between 25 to 35
percent through this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Locations along the Fortymile River have crested and river levels
are now falling, except at the Taylor Highway bridge where it is
expected to crest by early evening. For the Tanana River, river
levels will crest upstream of Fairbanks, while from Fairbanks
downstream will see levels rise gradually but remain well below
flood stage.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ220.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

LTH JUN 17