Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1228 PM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis.
Model spread from run to run remains minimal and solutions on the
position and strength of major features from different model
families remains limited into the mid range.

The strong upper level high pressure system has moved over the
eastern Bering Sea as a weak trough over the south central
interior continues to slowly move to the west. The interaction
with this upper level trough and the thermal trough just north of
the Alaska Range will be the focus for isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening especially along an Eagle to Fairbanks to
McGrath line. As the upper level trough moves west a better chance
for thunderstorms will emerge over the southwest interior
tomorrow. The best chance for thunderstorms tomorrow will be along
a line from Galena southwest to near Marshall. Additonal lifting
afforded by the terrain along and near Nulato Hills will be in
the cross hairs tomorrow afternoon and evening. Potential for
thunderstorms over areas with ongoing Red Flag Warnings or near
Red Flag conditions for the past several days will certainly
elevate ongoing fire weather concerns in these areas with added
potential for lightning initiated fires. Near Red Flag conditions
will prevail over much of the interior with Red Flag criteria
being met in many locations for temperatures as well as for
minimum relative humidities. Sustained winds are expected to
remain just short of Red Flag criteria for most locations in the
interior tomorrow. Elevated freezing levels over the interior and
in particular the Alaska Range will create increased runoff from
Alaska Range Glaciers and high elevation snowpack which will
cause increased flows on small streams and rivers draining the
Alaska Range. Will need to monitor as melt off increases this
week.

Northeast to east flow over the north slope will persist with a
surface high pressure system anchored in the central arctic.
Expect the low stratus ceilings to continue over the eastern
arctic coast east of Point Lay for the foreseeable future. Some
Areas of dense fog moving through will reduce visibility at times
to as low as 1/4 mile, but not expecting it to last for extended
periods. Winds 10 to 25 mph along the coast and 5 to 15 mph
inland.

Temperatures continue to warm as the surface ridge moves over the
Brooks Range. Warming temperatures will produce increased melting
of the snowpack, and rising freezing levels will produce melting
at higher elevations in the Brooks Range. The northwest coast will
be spared the low ceilings for the most part but will have higher
clouds over the area, some fog development can be expected near
open leads in the shorefast ice as well.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the western interior
through this evening for many locations as Relative Humidity
values will once again drop into the 15 to 25 percent range this
afternoon and temperatures rising into the 70s. Near Red Flag
conditions continue for the Central and Eastern interior zones.
Winds will generally be 5 to 15 mph with local gusts to 25 mph
during the afternoon hours for all areas. A few lighting strikes
yesterday in the southeast interior and increased activity in the
lower Yukon Delta. Expect similar conditions again today in the
same areas, however there is better potential for isolated and
perhaps scattered thunderstorms over the lower Yukon Delta
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will likely be
limited in coverage to areas south and west of Denali Park
tomorrow. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow over much of
the interior with high temperatures meeting or exceeding Red Flag
criteria, and minimum relative humidities meeting Red Flag
criteria. As has been the case for the last couple days meeting
the many locations in the interior will be flirting with the Red
Flag criteria for sustained winds. Additional Red Flag warnings
may be needed especially over the western interior tomorrow and
Wednesday. Continue to monitor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor rises continue in the interior rivers as the freezing level
rises and higher elevation snowpack melts into the drainages.
Will need to watch this through the week as quite a bit of that
snowpack will be melting as freezing levels remain high through
the week before falling next weekend. Primary rivers to watch will
be those draining out of the Alaska Range. Not seeing or hearing
of any issues in the arctic drainages as snowpack continues to
melt and low flow continues on the streams and rivers that are
flowing. Melting will be accelerated this week as temperatures
continue to warm and the freezing level rises through the week on
the north slope.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ210-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CCC JUN 17