Small Craft Advisory 231, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
301 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A somewhat active pattern continues today for much of northern
Alaska. the models are in decent agreement out through Tuesday
before they begin to diverge on the placement of the main synoptic
scale features.

Aloft, at 500 mb, the main features currently affecting the
weather over northern Alaska are a 510 dam low over the Kuskokwim
Delta and a ridge that currently stretches from Point Hope to
Eagle and into the Yukon Territory. The low will move into the
Bering Sea tonight. The general pattern for the upcoming week will
feature a low over the Bering Sea with a ridge over the Yukon
Territory. This will bring southerly flow lover the Alaska Range
and the Interior this week. The flow aloft over the Alaska Range
will be strong at times this week; however, the models have not
been handling the timing of the higher winds well over the Alaska
range that well over the past few days. On Friday an upper level
low will move eastward into the northern Gulf of Alaska which will
in turn cause the ridge to move to the west.

At the surface, a 981 mb low over the Yukon Delta will move to St.
Lawerence Island by Tuesday afternoon and into the Chukotsk
Peninsula by Wednesday morning. High pressure will persist over
the Arctic through much of the week. An area of low pressure will
move northward through the Interior on Wednesday and will move to
near Demarcation Point by Thursday morning.

Central and Eastern Interior: High Wind Warnings remain in effect
near the Alaska Range. Over the past few days the models haven't
performed that well in terms of the strength and timing of winds
in the Alaska range. In general, previous model runs have
oversold the strength of the winds. Nevertheless, the models over
the past day have advertised winds increasing again this evening,
so will leave the High Wind Warnings as is. Another round of snow
is expected overnight from Fairbanks north and west. Generally 1
to 3 inches of snow is expected. I did extend the Winter Weather
Advisories for zone 221 and 219. The winds will still be strong
enough over the highway summits to result in poor visibility due
to the combination of blowing and falling snow. A winter weather
advisory also remains in effect for zone 220, primarily for Eagle
Summit where stronger winds are expected.

West Coast and Western Interior: As the low moves northwestward
strong southerly winds will pass through the area from the Bering
Strait south. This combined with falling snow associated with the
low will bring another round of reduced visibility. Thus, I
extended out the Winter Weather Advisories that were previously
out for in anticipation of the increased winds tonight.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Main Issue in the short term will
be blowing snow. Winds are expected to continue to decrease this
evening from Barrow east resulting in improving visibility. As a
result, I ended the Winter Weather Advisories for zones 203 and
204. Strong winds and blowing snow will continue in zone 201
tonight, particularly in the eastern portion of the zone. A
northward moving front will bring 1 to 2 inches of snow tomorrow.
A northward moving low will cause the winds to pick up on the
eastern Arctic Coast on Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ208-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-
AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ235.
&&

DEC 17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1044 PM AKST MON DEC 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 15 WNW TANACROSS        63.45N 143.83W
12/04/2017  E75 MPH                             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WIND 45MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75MPH CLEAR
            SKIES AND TEMPERATURE 40 DEGREES. WIND BECAME GUSTY NEAR
            SHAW CR AND WINDY AT THE JOHNSON RVR. LOST A FEW SHINGLES
            OFF THE HOUSE.

&&

CECKERT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1212 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2017

AKZ221>223-225-226-051200-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Denali-Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs,
Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
Kantishna, Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome,
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1212 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2017

...Freezing Rain Near the Alaska Range Tonight...

Areas of freezing rain and snow are occuring in the Alaska Range
now, and expected to move as far north as Nenana this tonight.
This could cause up to one tenth of an inch of ice to accumulate,
making surfaces very slippery from Nenana south on the Parks
Highway, and south of Delta Junction on the Richardson Highway.
The freezing rain should end by 3 AM.

From Fairbanks southeast to Salcha, there is a chance of light
freezing rain and snow from 9pm tonight through 3am Tuesday. If
snow and freezing rain do occur, they will be very light with just
a trace of freezing rain and less than one inch of snow.

In the Middle Tanana Valley north and west of Fairbanks, snow is
likely with a chance of freezing rain tonight. Snow accumulation
of two inches is expected, and if freezing rain does occur,
accumulation will be one hundredth of an inch or less.

Highway Summits north of Fairbanks can expected east winds
gusting up to 40 mph along with blowing and drifting snow causing
low visibility.