Small Craft Advisory 158, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
141 PM AKDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Pattern remains quiet the next couple days across the
forecast area. Initialized well against the 15/18Z surface
analysis. Run to run continues to be very good in the short term,
and over the Arctic into the extended periods. Models are
handling the low dropping out of the high Arctic similarly with
not much spread in location and strength. Will utilize a blend of
the solutions as a starting point making only minor adjustments.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Stacked low continues to spin around over
the western Gulf of Anadyr with a 517 dam center just west of the
Gulf. The center will remain quasi stationary over the western
Gulf through Tuesday morning then merge with the low dropping out
of the Arctic. The low that will drop out of the Arctic is
currently 200 nm northeast of Banks Island over Melville Island
moving west and will be 100 nm north of Banks Island by Monday
morning at 497 dam, then 400 nm north northeast of Demarcation
point by Tuesday morning at 494 dam. The low will move over Point
Barrow by Thursday morning at 497 dam. A ridge over mainland
Alaska with a 527 hpa center over the middle Yukon River Valley
will drift south over the Upper Kuskokwim River Valley by Monday
afternoon, then merge with transient ridging that will be moving
to the south. A 525 dam low over Prince William Sound with remain
stationary into Monday, then drift east and merge with the low in
the Arctic Tuesday. A 529 dam low southeast of kamchatka will move
rapidly east over Shemya Monday morning, then to 200 nm south of
Cold Bay by Tuesday morning, and south of the Gulf of Alaska by
Wednesday morning. At 850 hpa...Zero isotherm remains south of the
state. The low over the Canadian Archipelago dropping southwest
into the eastern Arctic has pushed the -10 isotherm southwest to
lie from Old Crow YT to Point Lay today, and will continue to push
it southwest to lie from Dawson YT to Anaktuvuk Pass to Cape
Lisburne by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning it will lie from
Dawson YT to Livengood to Kotzebue, then north of Shishmaref. The
-20 isotherm will approach the central Arctic Coast Wednesday.

Surface...High pressure over the Western Interior will weaken
overnight and move south merging with high pressure over the
Alaska Peninsula Monday. Ridging from a 1040 mb high over the
Siberian Arctic has moved west of 160W with weak high pressure
over the Arctic Plain, western Brooks Range, and northwest Arctic
Coast. The high pressure over mainland Alaska will continue to
slowly pull back to the northwest through Tuesday morning. The 995
mb low over the Gulf of Anadyr will remain stationary through
Monday evening, then dissipates. A 996 mb low over Prince William
Sound will move to just south of Yakutat by Tuesday morning then
dissipate. A 1006 mb low over the central Aleutians will move to
100 nm south of Cold Bay by Monday morning then dissipate. A 989
mb low will move to Kiska by Monday morning, and near Adak by
Monday evening. The low will continue east to be south of the
Alaska Peninsula, but at this time models do not agree on
location. A 1004 mb high will develop over the upper Yukon River
Valley by Monday afternoon and moves over the Fortymile Country
and eastern Alaska Range by Tuesday morning. A 998 mb low just
northwest of Banks Island will move over the southwest tip of
Banks Island by Monday morning with a cold front approaching the
eastern Arctic Coast. The front will move over the coast by Monday
evening. A 1003 mb low will develop 700 nm north of Point Barrow
Monday morning and move rapidly south to be over Point Barrow by
Tuesday afternoon at 996 mb, then moves east to be over Deadhorse
by Wednesday morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Lots of stratus over the Arctic
with onshore flow, so cloudy conditions will prevail with flurries
or periods of light snow. No significant accumulation is expected
through Tuesday afternoon. The low dropping down from the high
Arctic brings the potential for 3 to 6 inches of snow east of
Point Barrow on Wednesday. Winds northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph
becoming northwest tonight, increasing to 10 to 20 mph Monday.
Temperatures continue the slow cooling trend.

West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy with some isolated
showers in the Western Interior, otherwise partly cloudy. Another
round of dense fog possible near the rivers Monday morning will
reduce visibility to less than one mile. Generally southeast winds
to 10 mph south of the Bering Strait with northeast winds to 10
mph to the north. Inland winds will be light and variable.
Temperatures slowly cooling.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with some breaks. Flurries
southeast of Tok tonight. Chance of snow north of the Yukon River
Tuesday. Patchy morning fog. Light winds. Temperatures cooling a
bit with lows falling to the mid 20s around Fairbanks. Coldest
temperatures will be north of the Yukon River where lows will be
near zero by midweek. Much cooler temperatures for the end of the
week through the weekend across the area.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Models have a good handle on
the low dropping out of the high Canadian Archipelago to the
Arctic Coast but have slowed it down a bit and it will not be over
the central Arctic Coast until Thursday morning. Much cooler
temperatures moving over the Arctic and Brooks Range late this
week.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB OCT 17