Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

176 
WWAK59 PAFG 040252
SVSAFG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
652 PM AKDT Mon Jul 3 2017

AKZ221>223-040302-
/O.EXP.PAFG.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170704T0300Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-Middle Tanana Valley-Central Interior-
652 PM AKDT Mon Jul 3 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DELTANA AND
TANANA FLATS...SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN CENTRAL
INTERIOR WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM AKDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire. However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 6475 14872 6471 14831 6445 14832 6450 14893
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 010DEG 11KT 6462 14857 

$$

Metzger

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
217 PM AKDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft centered over the western Interior will drift
south and become an elongated ridge extending from Bristol Bay to
the Yukon Territory by mid-week. This will gradually diminish the
shower activity over the eastern Interior and result in warmer
and drier conditions south of the Brooks Range in the next
couple of days. Broad southwest flow aloft over the top of the
ridge will bring a more active and wetter pattern to the northwest
coast, mainly from the Seward Peninsula northward. Models are in
general agreement drifting the ridge aloft axis further north into
the Interior by the weekend. This slight shift will bring
increased southeast flow and moisture into the southern Interior
which is a change from previous model runs. At this time, the GFS
and ECMWF are both eluding to the potential for an easterly wave
and significant rainfall across the southern Interior over the
weekend.

At the surface, a thermal low over Yukon Flats with an associated
trough extending into the southern Yukon and another southwest
toward McGrath will move north to Arctic Village by Wednesday. The
atmosphere remains quite unstable and moist over over the eastern
Interior. Afternoon convection and thunderstorms are firing off
again today and heavy downpours are expected over a similar area
to Sunday, although rain amounts will be lighter today. As ridging
aloft builds eastward over the Interior, afternoon convection will
be suppressed and limited to the southeast corner of the Interior
by Wednesday.

Elsehwere, a surface ridge along the west and Arctic coasts today
will give way to a low pressure trough moving into the Chukchi Sea
on Tuesday. The generally light wind regime over the region will
be replaced by increasing southwest winds 20-30 kt from the
northern Bering to the western Beaufort Sea.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...As mentioned above, showers and scattered
thunderstorms with brief heavy rain will re-develop today over
the eastern Interior. Thunderstorm activity will decrease through
Wednesday with drying conditions across the Interior. Relative
humidities will fall into the 30's over much of the Interior with
areas in the 20 percent range from the central Interior to the
Yukon Flats. Surface winds are expected to remain light and Red
Flag conditions are not anticipated with the drying pattern.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The small stream flood advisory was extended into
this evening for the eastern Alaska Range. Runoff is still moving
through the small basins. Heavy showers from Fairbanks eastward
today may result in another rise on smaller streams but widespread
flooding is not anticipated. Larger rivers such as the Chisana
and Tanana River are going to continue to creep upward this week
due to all the heavy shower activity and also warming and
increased glacial melting. The Chisana River near Northway along
with other glacial rivers draining the eastern Alaska Range could
rise to near bankfull by the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

EWP JUL 17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 PM AKDT Mon Jul 3 2017

AKZ220-222-224-041500-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Middle Tanana Valley-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, Stevens Village,
Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, Circle Hot Springs,
Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Tok, Tanacross,
Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, Chicken, and Boundary
305 PM AKDT Mon Jul 3 2017

...High Water on Creeks and Streams through Tuesday...

Another round of thunderstorms over the central and Eastern
Interior this afternoon and evening will bring localized heavy
rain, gusty winds, and possibly small hail. Some of these showers
may produce more than 0.5 inches of rain over a short period of
time. This rain will be falling over soils that were saturated
from the 1 to 2 inches of rain that fell from thunderstorms on
Sunday. Small streams and creeks could see rapid rises and
potentially rise overbank this afternoon and tonight.

Larger rivers and streams will rise over the next few days, but
flooding is not expected.

EWP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
607 PM AKDT Mon Jul 3 2017

AKZ222-040415-
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
607 PM AKDT Mon Jul 3 2017

A line of thunderstorms will move through the Fairbanks area
by 8 PM. These storms may produce brief periods of heavy rainfall,
hail up to 0.5 inches in diameter and north winds gusting to 25
mph.