Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Fairbanks, AK

544 
WWAK63 PAFG 081230
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 8 2017

AKZ218-090600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-170709T0600Z/
Southeastern Brooks Range-
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 8 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE...

* AFFECTED AREA...From Arctic Village east.

* TIMING...Strong winds will develop this afternoon and will
  combine with warm temperatures and low relative humidity through
  the evening hours.

* WINDS...Northeast around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...76 to 86.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ220-090600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0015.170708T2200Z-170709T0600Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 8 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS...

* AFFECTED AREA...North and east of Chalkyitsik

* TIMING...Strong winds will develop this afternoon and will
  combine with warm temperatures and low relative humidity through
  the evening hours.

* WINDS...Northeast around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...79 to 89.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

409 
WWAK63 PAFG 090048
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
448 PM AKDT Sat Jul 8 2017


AKZ218-090600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-170709T0600Z/
Southeastern Brooks Range-
448 PM AKDT Sat Jul 8 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE...

* AFFECTED AREA...From Arctic Village east.

* TIMING...Strong winds this afternoon will 
  combine with warm temperatures and low relative humidity 
  through the evening hours.

* WINDS...Northeast around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...75 to 85.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ220-090600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170709T0600Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
448 PM AKDT Sat Jul 8 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS...

* AFFECTED AREA...North and east of Chalkyitsik

* TIMING...Strong winds this afternoon will 
  combine with warm temperatures and low relative humidity 
  through the evening hours.

* WINDS...Northeast winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...78 to 88.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

412 
WWAK63 PAFG 090543
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
943 PM AKDT Sat Jul 8 2017

AKZ218-090645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-170709T0600Z/
Southeastern Brooks Range-
943 PM AKDT Sat Jul 8 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

$$

AKZ220-090645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170709T0600Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
943 PM AKDT Sat Jul 8 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING
UPLANDS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1200 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern through the weekend over much of northern
Alaska.

An upper level ridge along a McGrath to Fairbanks to Whitehorse
line continues to bake the central and eastern interior with
Fairbanks reaching 86 yesterday and Deadhorse reaching 81 degrees.
Very little relief for the northern interior with temperatures in
the 80s and minimum relative humidities dropping to around 25
percent north and east of a line from Bettles to Fort Yukon to
near Eagle. Near Red Flag conditions are expected again to day
and into the weekend over much of the northern interior. Winds
are not expected to meet Red Flag criteria except for the
southeastern Brooks to the east of Arctic Village where where Red
Flag Warnings continue through this evening. The strong ridge over
the northern interior has capped most thunderstorm activity for
the last couple of day over these areas however as the ridge drifts
to the north and east over the weekend, moisture associated with
an easterly wave moving northwest along the southern portion of
the ridge will cool the area a few degrees, raise the minimum
relative humidity levels a few percent but will also increase the
chances of thunderstorms and lighting caused wildfires over these
areas.

Moisture moves north and west into the southern and eastern interior
today and and will interact with a thermal trough along a Chalkyitsik
to Healy line this afternoon and will promote an active thunderstorm
day to the east of this line with thunderstorms producing heavy
downpours, gusty winds and frequent lightning.

High freezing levels over the Alaska Range for the last several
days has produced increased runoff from glaciers in the rivers and
streams draining the Alaska Range and is pouring into the Upper
and Middle Tanana River Valleys. This additional water volume
combined with the runoff from several rain events over the central
and eastern interior this past week has combined to produce
elevated water levels on the Upper Tanana River and is expected to
cause elevated water levels through the weekend on the Middle
Tanana River including Fairbanks area. The increased water levels
will likely cover gravel bars and produce swift currents.

The heavy rains over the Western Brooks Range will continue to
diminish this evening with small streams continuing to run high
for the next couple days.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread remains minimal in the short range and remains reasonable
in the long range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions conditions will continue for much of the
northern interior through the weekend. The hottest and driest
conditions are expected north and east of a line from Bettles to
Fairbanks to Chicken. Minimum RH values under 30 percent combined
with temperatures in the 80s are expected in these areas. A Red
Flag Warning is out for the Southeastern Brooks Range for today as
winds are expected to meet criteria as well as meeting Red Flag
criteria for temperatures and minimum relative humidity.
Elsewhere in the aforementioned dry area winds will not be
sufficient for a Red Flag Warning. In the Southern Interior RH
values will be higher today do to increased moisture being pushed
into the area from the east.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The heavy rains over the Western Brooks Range will continue to
diminish this evening with small streams continuing to run high
for the next couple days.

Continue to watch elevated water levels on the Upper Tanana River
Valley and expected elevated water levels this weekend on the
Middle Tanana River Valley. Additional rain falling over the
Eastern Alaska Range and over the Upper and Middle Tanana Valleys
may produce additional concerns with elevated water level early
next.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ218.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

CCC JUL 17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
739 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

AKZ222-080700-
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
739 PM AKDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop over
the Middle Tanana Valley through 10 pm. The strongest storms will
be capable of brief heavy downpours, nickel size hail and
wind gusts to 40 mph. Those with plans this evening should watch
for rapidly changing weather conditons and seek shelter when
thunderstorms approach.