High Wind Warning 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

724 
WWAK72 PAFG 101407
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
507 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

AKZ213-101515-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0025.171210T1500Z-171212T0600Z/
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, 
and Diomede
507 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the High
Wind Warning. 

This warning will become merged into a winter storm warning.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
514 AM AKST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A high amplitude long wave pattern consisting of a deep trough
over the Bering Sea and North Pacific with a strong ridge over NW
Canada and eastern Alaska will persist for the next week. This
will keep strong south flow aloft over most of Alaska keeping
Northern Alaska much warmer than normal for the next week, with
periods of strong chinook winds across the Alaska Range. This will
cause periods of snow along the West Coast, North Slope and
Northern Interior, while the southern Interior will see periods of
snow and freezing rain.

Surface...
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will persist
through Mon.

An occluded front stretching from Kotzebue to Barter Island will
slowly dissipate in place tonight. Light snow along this feature
will diminish to flurries tonight. Northeast winds 20-30 kt just
north of this front over the Arctic Coast will slowly decrease
through tonight.

A low in the southern Gulf of Alaska will move to the northern
Gulf of Alaska this afternoon, to the Kuskokwim Delta Sun pm.
An occluded front associated with this low will move over
Southeast Alaska this afternoon, to along the Alaska Range by 3am
Sun, to Bethel to Bettles to Old Crow by 3pm Sun, then along the
West Coast and Arctic Coast by 3am Mon, then dissipating Mon.
There will freezing rain and snow with the front in the Alaska
Range tonight and Sun, then a chance of freezing rain and snow
over the southern Interior with the front late tonight and Mon
with very low probability of precipitation in the Chinook shadow
just north of the Alaska Range. Expect 1-3 inches of snow with the
front Sun and Sun night over the Northern and far Western
Interior, with 1-2 inches Sun night and Mon along the West Coast
and North Slope. Expect NE winds 20-30 kt just north of the front
with higher gusts to 40 kt along the Brooks Range and over the
West Coast. Expect blowing snow just ahead of the front, but at
this time expect warm temperatures to prevent blizzard conditions
from happening.

A second and stronger low will move to the northwest Gulf of
Alaska Sun night and over the southwest Interior Mon. An occluded
front with this low will move along the Alaska Range Sun night and
over the Western and Northern Interior Mon afternoon. Expect rain,
freezing rain, and snow with the front in the Alaska Range with a
chance in the southern Interior, with snow likely in the Northern
and far Western Interior Mon. Expect strong south winds along the
Alaska Range Sun night into Mon, but enough uncertainty due to
model differences to hold of on any watches yet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize ok. Models show similar solutions on the long
wave pattern through next week, but start to see significant
differences in timing and strength of short waves moving north
from the Gulf of Alaska Sun night and Monday, as well as later
next week. The GFS is significantly stronger with the short waves
than the ECMF. Given the differences Sun night and Monday we will
not jump on the strongest winds the GFS is showing through the
Alaska Range Sun night and Mon, but will winds more closely
aligned with the ECMF, but will watch closely as further model
runs come in. In general prefer the ECMF from Sun night on as
these strong short waves are coming out of the North Pacific and
Gulf of Alaska, and the ECMF generally does better on features
coming from areas with low data density. But given the model
spread will leave plenty of uncertainty on most features from Sun
night on.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Strong North winds could cause freezing spray and high surf at
Savoonga Sun night through Tue.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ222-AKZ223.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB DEC 17