Gale Warning 95, NWS Fairbanks, AK

845 
FZAK69 PAFG 271236
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
436 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-280200-
436 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 993 mb low will move N into the Chukchi Sea this afternoon at 
997 mb. A weather front will move over the Arctic Coast this 
evening. A strong pressure gradient associated with the low will 
lie over the Arctic Coast into the afternoon then move over the 
nearshore waters, then offshore tonight. Another weather front 
will move over the Arctic Coast Sat. High pressure will build N 
over the central and eastern Arctic Coast Sun. 

$$

PKZ500-280200-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
436 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.Today...E winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-280200-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
436 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.Today...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ510-280200-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
436 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.Today...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

SDB Oct 17

492 
FZAK69 PAFG 272217
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
217 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-281215-
217 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 993 mb low pressure near Nome will track north today and 
weaken. A 998 mb low will form over the Chukchi Sea on
Saturday and track northeast near Barrow as a 1012 mb low
Sunday morning. A 1041 mb high builds over the Brooks range
by Wednesday morning.

$$

PKZ500-281215-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
217 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.Tonight...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers through the
night. Freezing fog after midnight. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog in the morning.
Snow showers in the morning. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-281215-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
217 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.Tonight...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ510-281215-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
217 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.Tonight...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Oct 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
639 AM AKDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A long wave pattern consisting of a trough over the Bering Sea
and ridge over eastern Alaska and NW Canada will persist through
the weekend. This will cause the warm, wet and stormy SW flow
over Northern Alaska to persist through the weekend. This will
cause periods snow through the weekend, which will be mixed with
rain and freezing rain in the area south of 65N.

Surface...
A ridge of high pressure north of the Arctic Coast will persist
into Sat. This is causing east winds to increase along the Arctic
Coast today as a front approaches from the south.

An Arctic Front stretching from Central to Tanana to Nome and then
south will remain in place tonight and move to Eagle to Tanana to
Denali by 4pm Fri, and then move south and east of the Alcan
Border and Alaska Range Fri night. Snow will mix with or change to
rain along the west coast along and south of this front, and mix
with freezing rain in the Interior south of this front. Will see
precip change back to snow with the front late Fri.

A strong low in the southeast Bering Sea will move to the Yukon
Delta as a 987 mb low by 4am Fri, and over Norton Sound as a 995
mb low by 4pm Fri and to near Point Lay by 4pm Sat. Will see SW
winds 25kt and moderate precipitation (.25-.50 inch) in the SE
quadrant of first low. Precip will be rain south of Nome and turn
to snow north of Nome and the Arctic Front.

An occluded front extending from this low to Nome to Barter
Island and then south to a frontal wave near Talkeetna. By 4pm Thu
this front will move to Gambell to Point Hope to Barter Island to
the frontal wave near Denali and remain quasistationary through
4am Fri. By 4pm Fri a second low will develop as a 995 mb 100 nm
west of Point Hope with the front from the low to Barrow to
Demarcation Point and then east of the Alcan Border. This second
low will move to 200 nm west of Point Hope as a 1001 mb low by 4pm
Sat. Expect several inches of snow, blowing snow and NE winds
25-35kt along the occluded front today and tonight. Precipiation
will mix with rain and freezing rain along and south of the Arctic
Front. The exception will be the area in the chinook shadow of
the Alaska Range where it will be mostly dry today other than a
brief period of freezing rain this morning. Will see SW winds 25kt
in the SE quadrant of first low.

Strong chinook winds over the Alaska Range will persist into this
evening. The winds have dropped off this morning at Denali as the
previously mentioned frontal wave appoaches from the south. This
is expected to allow a brief period of freezing rain in Zone 222
this morning. The Chinook will increase again this afternoon over
Denali cutting off any rain in zone 222. the Chinook will diminish
Fri allowing a chance of freezing rain in zone 222 to develop
again after midnight tonight continue into Fri. Precip will change
to snow late Fri as the cold front moves east through zone 222.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At H500, models initialize well and similar sollutions through 4am
Fri, then the ECMF weakens the low in the Chukchi Sea more quickly
than the GFS and NAM. Prefer the GFS sollution which maintains
the depth into Sat while the NAM and ECMF weaken it. At the
surface models verify well at 06Z Thu. GFS again moves low north
along the West Coast faster today than NAM and ECMF. On Fri the
GFS keeps a portion of the low over Norton Sound under a short
wave trough and associatd with the Arctic Cold front. At this
time favor the GFS for its more rapid movement of the front and
low, and for lingering a surface feature over Norton Sound under
the upper level trough and with the surface Arctic Front. The GFS
bring SW winds 25 kt into Nrton Sound Fri pm into Sat while other
models much lighter. The GFS sollution could cause elevated surf,
but the short fetch length and lower speeds should keep it below
high surf. On Saturday and Saturday night the ECMF and NAM move
the low center further east than the GFS and would bring much
stronger sw winds to Kivalina and Point Hope than the GFS.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
SW winds 25 kt in Norton Sound Fri pm into Sat could cause
elevated surf, but the short fetch length and marginal wind
speeds should keep it below high surf. On Saturday and Saturday
night could see SW winds 25 Kivalina to Point Hope but again this
looks like elevate surf and not high surf.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ224.

High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ216-AKZ227.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ225.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB OCT 17