Gale Warning 84, NWS Fairbanks, AK

225 
FZAK51 PAFG 072156
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
156 PM AKDT Thu Sep 7 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-081500-
156 PM AKDT Thu Sep 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 994 mb low over Kotzebue Sound will weaken in place to a 1004 mb
low by 4 pm Fri and persist into Sat. A ridge of high pressure
over the Arctic Ocean will shift south over the Arctic Coast 
through Sat.

$$

PKZ225-081500-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
156 PM AKDT Thu Sep 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-081500-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
156 PM AKDT Thu Sep 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-081500-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
156 PM AKDT Thu Sep 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-081500-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
156 PM AKDT Thu Sep 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-081500-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
156 PM AKDT Thu Sep 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Sep 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
239 PM AKDT Wed Sep 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Update for the addition of a wind advisory for zone 226. Winds
have increased this afternoon, stronger than what was anticiapted
for Alaska Range passes. Zones 225 will remain below advisory
criteria, while Delta Junction south will be near advisory
criteria before weakening this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1213 PM AKDT Wed Sep 6 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Unsettled, rainy weather will dominate western Alaska as well as
the North Slope through the rest of the week. High Wind Warnings
and Wind Advisories have been cancelled as winds have weaken to
below advisory/warning thresholds this morning, with light gap
flow continuing through Thursday. 06/12Z deterministic model
guidance is in good agreement through Friday evening with some
spread in solutions through the weekend in regards to position and
strength of individual systems, and significant differences early
next week, especially with features originating in the Arctic.

Aloft...At H500, a broad upper level trough over the Bering Sea
and western Northern Alaska will slowly move east through the rest
of the week. A 535 dam low over the Middle Yukon Valley and
associated shortwave stretching east over the southern Interior
will move north tonight towards the Brooks Range and Arctic Coast
Thursday. A ridge of high pressure over far eastern Alaska will be
pushed east into Western Canada this evening as a shortwave over
the Gulf of Alaska pushes east and into the Southeast Panhandle.
The northern extent of this ridge over the North Slope will
persist tonight, but will be pushed offshore as the aforementioned
low moves north. A 531 dam low over Adak will move east into the
Gulf of Alaska by Thursday evening. Weak ridging will build west
into the eastern Interior Thursday night through early Saturday. A
526 dam low over the Eastern Siberian sea will remain stationary,
but will sling one shortwave south over the northwest coast
Thursday evening and another Friday evening.

Surface...A 988 mb low over the Middle Yukon Valley and
associated front stretching east over the Interior will move north
tonight and be a 993 mb low near Kotzebue Thursday afternoon, and
then will weaken in place thereafter. A 986 mb low near Adak will
move east into the Gulf of Alaska becoming a 996 mb low southeast
of Kodiak Island Friday morning. A ridge of high pressure over
the Arctic will persist through the rest of the week. A 998 mb low
will develop over the East Siberian Sea Friday which will move
east towards the Chukchi Sea Saturday.

Eastern and Central Interior...Winds have weakened
considerably this morning to below advisory/warning thresholds
and thus decided to cancel them. Light gap flow will continue
through Alaska Range passes through Thursday. May see a few
isolated showers over the area through Thursday with a slight
chance for thunderstorms over the western Yukon Flats this
evening. As the weak ridge builds over the eastern Interior,
should see conditions dry out for Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Unsettled, wet pattern will
persist through the rest of the week. Latest forecast models
continue to paint decent rainfall amounts over the western
Interior with 0.50" to 1.00" of rainfall forecast through Friday
morning. Other locations will see under a half an inch. This will
likely rises on rivers and small streams within the basins in the
Northwest and western Interior through the weekend. Winds along
the west coast and Saint Lawrence Island will increase through the
evening to become sustained between 15 and 30 mph through
Thursday evening.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Over the southern slopes of the
Brooks Range west of the Dalton Highway, will see between 0.50"
to 1.00" through Friday morning. This may cause rapid rises on
small streams and creeks and rises on larger mainstem rivers. East
winds will be increasing through the evening to become sustained
between 20 and 30 mph through Friday morning before weakening.
Will see a band of rain move north over the Arctic Plain this
afternoon and coast this evening. This will bring up to a quarter
inch of rainfall through late this evening before moving offshore
tonight for east of Barrow with light rain continuing over Barrow
through Thursday afternoon. Low visibilities in fog under one mile
will redevelop this evening and persist into Thursday morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

HYDROLOGY...Expect .50-1.00 inch of rain in the Western and
Northern Interior through Thu, with .25 inch of rain in other
areas. Will see rises on northwestern and western Interior rivers
through the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

LTH SEP 17