Gale Warning 76, NWS Fairbanks, AK

205 
FZAK69 PAFG 091222
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
422 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-100030-
422 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 978 mb low 600 nm NW near 80N and 160W will move east to near 80
N and 135W as a 984 mb low Thursday afternoon. High pressure will
build in over the eastern Arctic Coast behind the front. A second
low near Wrangel Island will deepen to 1992 mb Thursday evening
and move northeast to be 100 nm northwest of Barrow as a 987 mb
low Friday morning. 

$$

PKZ500-100030-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
422 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.Today...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.FRI...N winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-100030-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
422 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.Today...W winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...N winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ510-100030-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
422 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.Today...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

CCC Aug 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
459 AM AKDT Tue Aug 8 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Significant weather pattern change coming to northern Alaska this
weekend. The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z
surface analysis and verified well against the 06z surface
analysis. Model spread remains reasonable in the short and mid
range and displays expected spread by the weekend.

Aloft at 500 hpa a 515 DM low currently centered near the north
pole dives south along the date line today and then swings
southeast to be located near 80N and 160W Wednesday evening. The
first of several strong shortwaves rotating around the upper
level low swings east over the western North Slope this evening
and over the central North Slope Wednesday morning and the eastern
North Slope Wednesday evening. The shortwave sweeps through the
northern interior and will erode the persistent upper level ridge
over the central and eastern interior.

Another and stronger shortwave sweeps south and east over the
western North Slope and Bering Strait Friday. Favorable upper
level dynamics will align to generate a surface low over the
western North Slope and southern Chukchi Sea Friday and will
continue to strengthen as it moves over the western Brooks Range
Friday afternoon. The low continues to deepen to around 996 mb
over the central Brooks Range Friday evening and to around 992 mb
over the eastern Brooks Range. A strong cold front will sweep
across the interior Friday and Saturday ushering in much cooler
temperatures. 850 mb temperatures over Fairbanks currently around
12 celsius will drop slightly to around 8 celsius Friday afternoon
and will drop to around 3 below Sunday morning. Snow levels will
drop from around 9 kft this afternoon to around 2 kft Sunday
morning over Fairbanks. Snow levels drop to the surface over most
of the North Slope excluding the immediate coasts Saturday and
over the Brooks Range Saturday night and Sunday.

As the low deepens over the western Brooks Range a persistent and
long fetch northwest flow will develop over the western coast of
the North Slope and Kotzebue Sound, and Bering Strait Friday and
Saturday. Will need to monitor west and north facing coasts in
these areas for high surf. See coastal hazard potential section
and special weather statements for additional information on these
hazards.

Surge models indicate the potential for elevated surf this evening
and tomorrow along the Arctic Coast west of Barrow as a 20 to 20
mph along shore wind turns to onshore late tonight or Wednesday
morning. The winds combined with 8 to 10 foot waves breaking off
shore and surge values around 1 foot above normal tide levels
will allow waves to run up to near the high water level. A special
weather statement covering elevated surf along the coast west of
Barrow has been issued.

Expect isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along the
thermal trough which will lie from near Arctic Village southwest
to near St. Mary. Minimum relative humidity level are expected to
remain above 30 percent over northern Alaska with the exception
of the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile country where level may
drop to around 25 percent this afternoon and evening. Gusty gap
winds through the Alaska Range passes continue this morning and
will continue through this afternoon.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. Another early
season storm is expected to develop over the southern Chukchi Sea
and move into the Bering Strait and Kotzebue Sound Friday and
Saturday. This storm is expected to bring persistent Northwest
winds along the west and north facing coasts along the Chukchi Sea
Coast, Bering Strait and Kotzebue Sound. Small changes in the
track and strength of this storm will affect which coast lines
will receive the worst impacts. Those with interests along the
shore should continue to monitor the situation for additional
information and future statements.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect isolated showers this afternoon and evening, mainly along
the thermal trough which will extend from near Arctic Village
southwest to near Saint Mary. Minimum relative humidity level are
expected to remain above 30 percent over all but the southeastern
interior where some locations mainly in the Upper Tanana Valley
and Fortymile Country will drop to around 25 percent both today
and Wednesday. Some gap winds with gusts up to 30 mph possible
again this afternoon and evening in the Alaska Range.

A general cooling trend is expected over the next 7 days.
Temperatures across the Interior will likely struggle reach 60
degrees by Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Water from heavy rainfall last week continues to work its way down
the river system. The Kobuk River crested today in Kiana. High
water will continue in the Kobuk Delta through the middle of the
week.

The Tetlin Road at mile 5.3 will remain flooded through at least
this week as the Tanana River will remain high and continue to
push water into low areas near this section of the road.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

CCC AUG 17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
153 PM AKDT Tue Aug 8 2017

AKZ207-209-210-100200-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Kotzebue,
Selawik, Noorvik, Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock,
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
153 PM AKDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...High Surf Possible Friday through Sunday...

A early season storm will develop over the Siberian Arctic and
move across the Chukchi Sea Thursday night with a Cold front
moving to the northwest Arctic Coast and Bering Strait by Friday
morning.

Strong north winds of 20 to 35 mph will move in behind the front
and persist through the weekend before diminishing Sunday
afternoon. The persistent winds will produce building seas that
are expected to reach 11 feet in the Chukchi Sea, and 6 to 8 feet
in outer Kotzebue Sound before subsiding Sunday.

The persistent northwest winds are expect to produce High Surf
along the northwest to north facing coastal areas from the Bering
Strait to Point Hope.

Residents should prepare early by moving things away from the
shoreline and securing loose outdoor objects.

For the latest forecasts go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 PM AKDT Tue Aug 8 2017

AKZ201-202-205-206-100200-
Western Arctic Coast-Northern Arctic Coast-
Northwestern Brooks Range-Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, Cape Lisburne, Barrow,
Alaktak, Pitt Point, Nulavik, Singiluk, Umiat, Anaktuvuk Pass,
Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, and Franklin Bluffs
224 PM AKDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...Elevated Surf Tonight and Thursday Night Through the Weekend...

Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph over the Arctic will produce
elevated surf on the northwest coast, west of Point Barrow,
tonight. Seas will build to 10 feet offshore and combine with a
storm surge of around one foot to produce above normal runup and
potential for minor beach erosion.

A stronger and more persistent weather system will move to the
area Thursday night producing more elevated surf for the area west
of Wainwright through Sunday. Seas will again build to 10 feet
offshore and combine with a storm surge of around one foot to
produce wave runup and the potential for minor beach erosion.

Residents should prepare early by moving things away from the
shoreline and securing loose outdoor objects.

For the latest forecasts go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks