Gale Warning 57, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
613 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A ridge of high pressure stretching from NW Canada across
Northern Alaska will build through Friday and then weaken slowly
this weekend and next week. This will keep conditions generally
hot and dry over the northern and eastern Interior through Fri.
Several weak short waves will move northwest over the west coast
of Alaska through Sat bringing increasing amounts of showers
through Sat.

A short wave trough stretching from Bethel to Chandalar Lake will
move to the Yukon Delta to Howard Pass by 4pm Thu...and to Gambell
to Point Hope by 4am Fri. There are isolated showers associated
with this.

Weak instability in the southwest Interior and West Coast south of
Deering will cause isolated thunderstorms in that area this
afternoon/evening, and again Fri afternoon/evening.

Surface...
Strong high pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will
persist into the weekend. This is causing widespread stratus along
with fog and flurries over the North Slope from Point Lay
northeast. Stratus and fog will burn off over inland areas during
the day, then move back south and west late at night each day.
This is also causing east winds 20-30 kt across the Arctic Coast
with winds increasing to 35 kt Fri from Point Lay west. It is also
causing NE winds 15g25kt over the Brooks Range.

A 1004 mb low near McGrath will move to the Yukon Delta as a 999
mb low by 4pm Fri, then over Norton Sound on Sat, and then persist
in to Sun. Scattered showers northwest of this low will move
northwest through Sat and becoming more numerous through time.
A low pressure trough stretching south from this low will move to
the Yukon Delta to McGrath by 4pm Fri...and to Point Hope to
McGrath by 4pm Sat. Will scattered showers along this trough as
well.

A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Point Hope to
Mcgrath to Northway will persist through tonight and then move to
Point Hope to Fairbanks to Chicken by 4pm Fri...then drifting
south to Point Hope to Denali to Northway by 4pm Sat. Will see
isolated afternoon showers near this feature. Will also have NE
winds 10-15g25kt over the Interior north of this trough. This will
cause near Red Flag conditions again today and Fri over the
northern and eastern Interior. Will see southerly gap flow winds
through Alaska Range passes today and Fri as the trough moves
north of the Alaska Range.

An Arctic front over the Arctic Coast will persist through Fri
and then move south to Eagle to Deadhorse by 4pm Sat. This will
bring much cooler temperatures to the eastern Interior Sat and
Sun.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Deterministic models initialize well and show similar solution
through Fri. Start to see differences Sat and Sun with the GFS
moving short waves north over the southern Interior while the ECMF
keeps them further south. For these reasons expect just chance of
showers into Sat and Sun.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A ridge of high pressure stretching from NW Canada across
Northern Alaska will build through Friday and then weaken slowly
this weekend and next week. This will keep conditions generally
hot and dry over the northern and eastern Interior through Fri
then cool over the weekend. Will have NE winds 10-15g25kt over
the Interior the northern and eastern Interior today and Fri.orth
This will cause near Red Flag conditions again today and Fri over
the northern and eastern Interior. Will see southerly gap flow
winds through Alaska Range passes today and Fri as the trough
moves north of the Alaska Range so expect near red Flag conditions
near Delta Junction area again today and Fri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers draining the Alaska Range and Brooks Range will be rising
through the weekend due to freezing levels rising to 10,000 ft
along the Brooks Range and to 12,000 ft along the Alaska Range by
Fri. Some rivers may rise up to their banks covering up gravel
bars by the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB JUN 17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1210 PM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

AKZ221>226-102015-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs,
Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park,
Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids,
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1210 PM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

...Rising Water Levels on Rivers Draining the Alaska Range...

Warm temperatures this week will result in significant melting of
the high elevation snowpack in the Alaska Range and Wrangell
Mountains. Temperatures will rise above freezing up to the 10 to
12 thousand foot level in the mountains through Saturday.
Significant high elevation snow and glacial runoff will cause
rivers draining the Alaska Range and the Wrangell Mountains to
gradually rise into next week. This includes the Chisana,
Nabesna, Delta, Nenana, and Tanana rivers. Flooding is not
expected but many sand and gravel bars will be covered with water
early next week. In addition, some rivers will have increased
debris and may approach bankfull along low lying river banks.