Gale Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 PM AKST Sun Jan 1 2017

SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A high amplitude long wave pattern consists of a ridge over the
Gulf of Alaska and Mainland Alaska with a trough over NE Russia
and the Sea of Okhotsk will persist through Tue then retrograde
Wed and Thu as several strong short waves make their way eastward
across northern Alaska and through the ridge. This strong ridge
has brought near record warmth to the North Slope of Alaska and
well above normal to the remainder of northern Alaska along with
periods of rain or freezing rain along with snow to the west
coast and western interior. These conditions will persist into Mon
and then slowly cool Tue through Fri.

Surface...
A 976 mb low 150 nm northwest of Wrangel Island will continue
moving north. An occluded front extending east from the low to the
northern Chukchi sea then as a warm front to Barter Island will
move northeast. There is significant warm air that has pushed over
northern Alaska south of this front with above freezing layers
much of northern Alaska.

A cold front extending from the northern Chukchi Sea to Cape
Lisburne to Nome to a frontal wave in the SE Bering...will move by
3am Mon to Prudhoe Bay to Anaktuvuk Pass with a warm front from
Anaktuvuk to the frontal wave near St Lawrence Island then
south...by 3pm Mon as a warm front from Barter Island to a 1005 mb
wave low near Point Lay with the cold front from Point Lay to St
Marys...by 3am Tue as a cold front from Barter Island to Anvik and
by 3pm Tue to Arctic Village to Tanana to Dillingham. There is
snow along this cold front that will pile up another 12-16 inches
along the south slopes of the Brooks Range in zones 208 and 217
and add 4-6 inches in western zone 218 and zone 219. Will also see
4-6 inches on the Nome area through tonight before changing over
to rain early Mon. There are areas of mixed rain and snow or even
rain east of the cold front tonight through Mon. In the Interior
where there is cold air at the surface there will be a chance of
freezing rain tonight through Mon in zones 216 and 219.
There are south wind 25g35 kt along the cold front tonight and
Mon which are causing low visibility in blowing snow in the areas
with falling snow.

A 990 mb low in the southwest Bering will move to 200 nm north of
Anadyr as a 996 mb low by 3pm Mon...and to 400 nm north of Prudhoe
Bay as a 1003 mb low by 3pm Tue. Will see southwesterly gales just
south and east of this low along with a chance of snow showers.

A third low developing in the southwest Bering Tue will move to
the southern Chukchi sea as a 1012 mb low Wed. Expect another
round of sw gales with this over the West Coast Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 500 Mb models initialize well and show similar solutions through
3pm Mon. After Mon the GFS moves a short wave faster NE over the
Arctic Ocean on Tue than the NAM and ECMF. Favor the faster GFS
solution on that feature. GFS and ECMF show similar solutions with
the second short wave moving from Russia to NW Alaska Wed Night.

At the surface all models initialize 4-8 mb too weak on the
Copper River Basin so expect gap flow winds through Alaska Range
passes to be much stronger than models would indicate through Mon.
Will use GFS through 3pm Tue...then go with the ECMF solution Tue
night and Wed due to it showing a much deeper low center in moving
from the NW Bering to the Chukchi sea than other models indicate.

The GFS is much higher with precipitation amounts through 3pm
Tue...then more show similar solutions Tue night and Wed. Will go
with the GFS precipitation amounts.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...High surf possible at
Gambell and in the Bering Strait Wed with SW gales.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ217.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ211-AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.
&&

JB JAN 17