Gale Warning 37, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
338 PM AKST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Good agreement through Monday, then some divergence in
the handling of the building ridge over the Bering Sea next week.
The GFS is more aggressive and has done marginally better over
the last few days so will lean a bit more in that direction for
now. Surface initialized well against the 22/18Z analysis. For the
short term will go with an even blend of the model outputs.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Shortwave moving through the interior now
will continue east through the evening. A ridge over the west
coast will continue to build and slide east with the axis lying
from Wainwright to Tanana to Seward by Thursday morning with 528
dam heights extending north over the arctic coast. By Thursday
evening the ridge axis will rotate east to lie from Demarcation
point to Cordova with 540 dam or greater heights over the
southeast half of the mainland. A 488 dam closed low over the
western Aleutians today will move over the Gulf of Anadyr by
Friday morning as an open wave with a trough extending southeast
over Nunivak Island then southwest over Unimak Island. As the
ridge continues to rotate flow becomes zonal over the state and
will allow a series of shortwaves to rapidly move across the area
through the weekend. The trough over the eastern Bering Sea will
help flatten the ridge as it moves inland to the Western Interior
on Friday afternoon, and to the Eastern Interior by Friday night.
A 500 dam low will develop late Friday over the eastern Kuril
Islands and move just west of the Gulf of Anadyr by Saturday
morning. At 850 hpa...-20 isotherm lies from Old Crow YT to
Allakaket to Deering and will move north to lie north of the state
by Thursday afternoon. The zero will nose in over the lower Yukon
Delta Thursday morning, then slide east over the western Alaska
Range Thursday evening through Friday morning.

Surface...A 1023 mb low over the Beaufort Sea will move east. Weak
ridging with a 1029 mb center will continue to build over the
arctic plain and central arctic coast, with a 1041 mb high over
the western arctic. The high center will persist over the western
arctic as the ridge axis moves east across the arctic and arctic
coast to MacKenzie Bay by Thursday afternoon and to Banks Island
by Thursday evening. A 1042 mb center will develop in the ridge
over the upper Yukon Flats by Thursday morning then move into
Canada. A leeside trough will develop tonight over the arctic
plain as the ridge slides east. The leeside trough north of the
Alaska Range will weaken a bit this evening then become more
enhanced Thursday. Southwest flow will develop from Fairbanks west
as ridging over the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Alaska persists
through the weekend.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Short term some stratus over the
central and northwest coast with some flurries. To the east mainly
clear and cold through the night. Weather system moving into
the area from the southwest will bring increasing clouds and snow
to the area by Thursday afternoon over the northwest coast and
spreading east. Winds coming up rather smartly over the northwest
coast so will be issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for the area
due mainly to blowing snow. As the front progresses east the winds
will pick up so may need to look at blowing snow issues in other
areas tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures on the increase as the
system moves in, so wind chill issues will be ending even as the
winds increase.

West Coast and Western Interior...Several waves of weather moving
through the area will spread more snow to the area, along with a
chance of freezing rain to the lower Yukon Delta and upper
Kuskokwim River Valley. Winds are increasing in the Bering Strait
and on St Lawrence Island and that will continue through the
evening with snow spreading into the area and Blizzard conditions
developing. No changes to the current suite of Warnings and
Advisories, will however be making some changes to the other
Watches currently in effect. Zone 210 will be downgraded to an
Advisory, while the remainder of the Watches will be upgraded to
Winter Storm or Blizzard Warnings. Another front moving in
Thursday late will bring another round of warnings and advisories
for Friday. Stay tuned.

Central and Eastern Interior...2 to 4 inches of snow tonight
across the area with taper off toward morning with some clearing
Thursday. More Snow Thursday night and Friday with 2 to 5 inches
possible. Then the big snow expected on Saturday into Sunday with
3 to 8 inches possible. Winds generally light with the exception
of the Alaska Range passes where it will be gusty to around 50 mph
at times. Temperatures warming so a slight chance of some freezing
rain in the Alaska Range.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ217.

Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ216-
AKZ218-AKZ219.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.

&&

SDB FEB 17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1219 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 AM     SNOW             17 W SALCHA             64.48N 147.52W
02/23/2017  M3.8 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OF THE 3.8 INCHES THAT FELL OVER THE LAST 24
            HOURS ENDING MIDNIGHT, 2.9 INCHES FELL
            BETWEEN 3PM 22 FEB AND MIDNIGHT 22 FEB. THE
            DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

&&

HFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1230 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 AM     SNOW             4 SSW COLLEGE           64.82N 147.88W
02/23/2017  M3.8 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OF THE 3.8 INCHES THAT FELL OVER THE LAST 24
            HOURS ENDING MIDNIGHT, 2.9 INCHES FELL
            BETWEEN 3PM 22 FEB AND MIDNIGHT 22 FEB. THE
            DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

&&

HFL