Gale Warning 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

369 
FZAK52 PAFG 132325
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-141215-
225 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SIBERIA AND THE WESTERN BERING 
SEA. A 973 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO NEAR
VALDEZ BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND BERING SEA FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$

PKZ200-141215-
NORTON SOUND-
225 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-141215-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
225 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING FOG AND BLOWING
SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-141215-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
225 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-141215-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
225 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

LTH JAN 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
354 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concern will be winter related
hazards for the Interior. Model agreement is decent through the
middle of next week regarding the overall synoptic setup, however
there are some differences in regards to temperatures where there
are 5 to 10 C difference between the 12/12Z GFS, NAM, and ECWMF,
especially over the eastern Interior throughout the forecast
period. The 12/12Z GFS remain consistent over the last few runs,
keeping the coldest air over the West and Arctic. The 12/12Z ECWMF
has come more into alignment with the GFS, but remains colder
during the mid-term. Despite these differences, all are
advertising an active pattern for snow across the Interior through
early next week.

Aloft...Cold upper level low and associated trough oriented SW to
NE over Alaska will deepen and dig southwest towards the Aluetian
Islands and northern Pacific through Saturday. Another upper low
will progress northeast towards the South-Central coast Sunday
and then inland Monday and will then be absorbed as it weakens
into the upper level trough over mainland Alaska Monday night.
Broad cyclonic flow centered over the western Interior will then
set up and persist through the rest of the forecast period. Colder
H850 temperatures have settled across most of Northern Alaska with
the coldest temperatures around -30C over the Arctic Coastal
Plain. Warm return flow will setup over the eastern Interior
tonight and persist through Saturday evening and again Sunday
night and Monday...warming H850 temperatures by 5 to 10 C.

At the surface...low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will move
northeast towards the South-Central coast Friday and then inland
over the southeastern Interior Saturday. A second low will move
north into the Gulf of Alaska Sunday then proceed northeast in
similar fashion to the first low. Over Siberia, a 1040 ridge of
high pressure will remain entrenched with its eastern periphery
over the Bering Strait and western Bering Sea. As the
aforementioned lows move inland, pressure gradient over Saint
Lawrence Island...Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea will increase and
persist through the weekend.

North Slope and Arctic Coast...Wind chills will be the main
concern as winds are forecast to increase tonight over the Brooks
Range and with temperatures forecast to fall into the 25 to 30
below...wind chills will approach 55 below tonight and become
colder to near 60 below by Saturday afternoon. At this time, have
issued a Wind Chill Advisory for the Northeastern Brooks Range and
may need to be expanded west to include the Northwestern Brooks
Range. Temperatures will continue to cool to below normal by late
this weekend into early next week where lows will be 20 to 35
below and highs 15 to 25 below. Otherwise...fog and flurries
through Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Strong north winds will continue
to increase along the West Coast through Friday with gusts up to
50 mph possible over Saint Lawrence Island...Bering Strait and the
Chukchi Sea Coast by Friday night. These strong winds coupled with
a long fetch of open water through and south of the Bering Strait
and cold, arctic air will likely result in freezing spray
developing and being blown over Savoonga. Snow squalls are also
expected to develop over the open water where a 20 to 25 C
difference between the sea surface temp and cold air aloft...and
will bring periods of low visibility in heavy snow and blowing
snow. Once the ice expands south towards the island, should see
these snow squalls diminish. Out of these snow squalls, could see
4 to 6 inches of total snowfall through Saturday afternoon. Over
the Western Interior...will see a cooling trend develop late this
weekend into early next week with lows approaching 30 to 35 below.

Central and Eastern Interior...An active, snowy pattern is
advertised by model guidance through early next week. The first
round of snow will develop over the southeastern Interior and
eastern Alaska Range Friday morning and spread north to the rest
of interior by the evening. Locations south of the yukon river and
from Manley east will see 4 to 8 inches of snow through Saturday
afternoon...with these areas under a Winter Weather Advisory that
starts Friday morning to afternoon. The eastern Alaska
Range...where a winter storm warning was issued...will see a
significant amount of snow between 15 to 20...or even more in
upslope areas. Winds will increase over higher terrain and highway
summits...adding the additional hazard of low visibility due to
blowing snow in zones 219...220 and 221...mainly along the Steese,
Elliot and Dalton Highways...where winter weather advisories were
issued. Wind chills will also be critical...more so over the
southeastern Brooks Range...where a wind chill advisory was
issued. Wind Chills will become colder...likely bottoming out
around 60 below. Will need to evaluate and watch to see if the
mention of wind chills needs to be added to existing winter
weather advisories in 219...220 and 221.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ218.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-
AKZ224.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

LTH JAN 17