Gale Warning 148, NWS Fairbanks, AK

099 
FZAK69 PAFG 102309
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-111430-
209 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...No synopsis as all areas are mostly
ice-covered.

$$


PKZ500-111430-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
209 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ505-111430-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
209 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-111430-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
209 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

Dec 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
505 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A high amplitude long wave pattern consisting of a deep trough
extending from the Sea of Okhotsk across the Northern Pacific to
the Gulf of Alaska with a strong ridge over Western Canada and
Eastern Alaska will persist through late this week with the ridge
breaking down next weekend. This means that the strong southerly
flow pattern will continue to push warm moist air north over
Northern Alaska through late this week, then cooling next weekend.

A series of strong short wave will move north in this flow. These
waves will bring a series of strong chinook winds to the southern
Interior near the Alaska Range, along with a mix of rain, snow and
freezing rain to the southern Interior. Will see Snow in the
Northern Interior, far western Interior, along the West Coast and
North Slope with each wave. Will address the weather with each
wave with its associated surface feature below.

Surface...
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will persist
through Tue.

A weakening occluded front that lies from the Bering Strait to
Point Hope to Barter Island will dissipate tonight. Scattered snow
showers along and north of this front will diminish to flurries.
Northeast winds 15-25 kt along with patchy fog and blowing snow
along the Arctic Coast will persist into tonight.

An occluded front stretching from Cook Inlet to Eagle will move to
Bethel to Galena to Old Crow by 3pm Sun, to Nunivak Island to
Shishmaref to Barter Island by 3am Mon, then dissipating Mon as a
second front merges with it. Expect 1-2 inches of snow with this
front as it moves northwest, excepting the chinook shadow of the
Alaska Range in the southern Interior where most precip will be
downsloped out, but there will be a chance of rain, freezing rain
as freezing levels rise to near 4000 feet in the southern
Interior.

A frontal wave in the northeast Pacific will move to near King
Salmon as a 967 mb low by 3am Mon, to the Yukon Delta as a 984 mb
low by 3pm Mon, to near Shishmaref as a 995 mb low by 3am Tue, and
near the Bering Strait as a 996 mb low by 3pm Tue. An occluded
front stretching east from this front will move to King Salmon to
Shageluk to Eagle by 3am Mon, to The Yukon Delta to a 996 mb low
near Barter Island by 3pm Mon, to Shishmaref to Point Lay to
Barter Island by 3am Tue then weakening in place Tue. Expect
another batch of strong winds over the Alaska Range with this
front along with a chance of rain, snow and freezing rain in the
southern Interior, while there is 2-4 inches of snow in the
northern and far western Interior. Zones 217-218 and 219 will see
up to 8 inches of snow. Also expect northeast widns 20-30kt just
ahead of the front with blowing snow in the northern and western
Interior and West coast. This will lead to a winter storm warning
for zones 217 218 219 and 213, and winter weather advisory for
zones 207 208 216.

Chinook winds through Alaska Range are now becoming strong, then
will decrease some this afternoon as the front and short wave
move north. Chinook winds will increase again tonight and
continue into Mon afternoon and will likely add high wind warning
for zones 223 225 and extend 226 through Mon pm. There is a
possibility of high winds zones 224 Dot Lake to Tanancross about
Mon am as the winds aloft turn southwest, but still uncertain on
this.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize fairly well and show similar solutions through
3am Tue then from 3pm Tue on start to see significant differences
between GFS and ECMF and among GFS ensemble members in short wave
locations and depth, but long wave pattern remains similar. Will
use the GFS for the most part through 3am Tue, then moves towards
the ECMF solution with a blend of ensembles from Tue after noon
on.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Elevated surf and possible freezing spray north side of Little
Diomede and St Lawrence Islands tonight into Mon night due to
strong north winds cold temperatures. Expect Blizzard these
locations to mitigate ice build up from freezing spray as snow
will drift over many objects.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ216.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB DEC 17