Gale Warning 146, NWS Fairbanks, AK

804 
FZAK52 PAFG 302253
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
153 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-011500-
153 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front associated with a 964 mb low in the Bering Sea 
will move to St Lawrence Island by midnight and to the West Coast 
and Chukchi Sea by Friday morning. A broad area of low pressure
will remain over the Bering Sea as the low drifts N into southern
Siberia Sun.

$$

PKZ200-011500-
Norton Sound-
153 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Snow and freezing rain.
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-011500-
Dall Point to Wales-
153 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building
to 11 ft. Snow and freezing rain. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and freezing rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM
or less. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-011500-
Kotzebue Sound-
153 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM
or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-011500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
153 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and freezing rain.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

SDB Nov 17

414 
FZAK52 PAFG 011229
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
329 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-020315-
329 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A front tracking eastward across the Bering Sea will impact the 
West coast this morning and enter the Chukchi Sea this evening. 
The associated 961mb low, centered over the western Bering Sea, 
will move slowly Northward, impacting the Siberian coast and 
dissipating Sunday.

$$

PKZ200-020315-
Norton Sound-
329 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Snow and rain. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-020315-
Dall Point to Wales-
329 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-020315-
Kotzebue Sound-
329 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-020315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
329 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to
7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Dec 17

871 
FZAK52 PAFG 012328
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
228 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-021500-
228 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front over the West Coast will move inland and N into
the Chukchi Sea before dissipating on Sun. The 969 mb low
associated with the front will remain stationary over the Western
Bering Sea into Sun, then moves W. As the low moves W a rapidly 
developing low in the N Pacific will swing N to Kodiak Island by 
Sun evening, then over the SW mainland Mon.

$$

PKZ200-021500-
Norton Sound-
228 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-021500-
Dall Point to Wales-
228 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-021500-
Kotzebue Sound-
228 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-021500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
228 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

SDB Dec 17

796 
FZAK52 PAFG 021215
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
315 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-030330-
315 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
The front associated with a 966 mb low in the western Bering will
continue its track northward through the Chukchi Sea before 
stalling and dissipating Sunday. The low will remain over the 
Western Bering Sea for the next several days. A quickly developing
North Pacific low will deepen to 963 mb before impacting Kodiak 
Island late Sunday and moving into the mainland SW by Monday. 


$$

PKZ200-030330-
Norton Sound-
315 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-030330-
Dall Point to Wales-
315 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-030330-
Kotzebue Sound-
315 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-030330-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
315 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Dec 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
233 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Good run to run continuity in the short term. Extended
periods are similar in the big picture, the details are a bit
fuzzy, but they seem to be coming into better focus. The 29/12Z
solutions where a bit off when initialized against the 29/18Z
surface analysis for positions and central pressures, but not
enough to make a significant difference. Going to go with an
equal blend for the short term for most elements. Temperatures
continue to be a challenge, so will need to go in and approach
them on an site by site basis. As mentioned, extended guidance is
similar, so the WPC solutions which used primarily a blend of the
Ensemble means will be favored.

Aloft...at 500 hpa...Ridging extends southeast over the Beaufort
Sea from a 541 dam high near 82N 180 and will rotate west tonight
with the axis moving over Point Barrow by Thursday morning, and
over the Eastern Chukchi Sea by Friday morning. As that occurs a
507 dam low near Point Barrow will move west to the Chukchi Sea
this evening and absorb a 505 dam low over Kotzebue Sound as it
drifts south to the Bering Strait by Thursday morning. The low
then moves northwest and dissipates as it approaches Wrangel
Island. A 503 dam low east of Banks Island will back to the west
through Friday morning to be over Eastern MacKenzie Bay by Friday
morning. Troughing will develop over the Eastern Arctic Coast as
the low backs into the area and persist into Saturday before it
weakens. Weak ridging over the Central and Eastern Interior will
rotate north this evening to lie of the Upper Upper Yukon Flats
and the Eastern Brooks Range, then pulls back into Canada. The
stacked low over the Western Alaska Peninsula is starting to fill
and will slowly slide east to be south of Kodiak Island by
Thursday morning, and continues east across the Northeast Pacific
through Friday. A shortwave swinging north will move into the
interior by Thursday morning and a 514 dam low will develop over
the Upper Kuskokwim Valley by Thursday morning, the low moves east
over the Fortymile Country Thursday afternoon. Ridging over the
Western Bering Sea will move to the Central Aleutians and Eastern
Bering Sea by Thursday morning, then over the West Coast by
Thursday evening as a 490 dam low moves into the Western Bering
Sea. The ridge will move inland as the low moves to the Central
Bering Sea by Friday afternoon, then back over Kamchatka Saturday.
The ridging will lie from Yakutat to Point Lay by Saturday morning
as a strong shortwave starts moving north over the West Coast. At
850 hpa...Temperatures over the forecast area will remain fairly
static from -5C to -15C as the -10 isotherm lies from Norton
Sound to Eagle through Thursday, the isotherm moves to lie from
Dawson YT to Point Lay by Friday evening as some warm air in
advance of the next system pushes north over the Lower Yukon
Delta.

Surface...Ridging continues over the Arctic extending south
over the coast from a 1036 mb high high in the Siberian Arctic.
High pressure remains over the Central and Eastern Interior but
has weakened as the high is pulling back to the southeast. A 956
mb stacked low over Cold Bay will move to Sand Point this
evening, then moves east into the North Pacific as it fills. A
trough of low pressure will develop over the Western Interior this
evening with a 994 mb low in Norton Sound. The low will merge with
a low in the Western Bering Sea Thursday. A ridge of high
pressure will push north over the western Bering Sea this evening
moving to the Eastern Bering Sea south of the Bering Strait by
Thursday morning. A 967 mb low will move off the Kamchatka
Peninsula Thursday morning and move to the Central Bering Sea by
Friday evening at 967 mb. The associated weather front will move
to St Lawrence Island late Thursday night or early Friday morning
with strong winds moving over the area. Leeside troughing
continues north of the Alaska Range with enhanced pressure
gradient in the upper Tanana Valley and across the Alaska Range as
high pressure persists over the Copper River Basin and Yukon
Territory. The high breaks down a bit Thursday and the gradient
will relax, but expect the gradient to tighten up across the
Alaska Range Friday night with strong gap winds developing in the
Alaska Range. With the high rebuilding over the yukon Territory
expect the pressure gradient to tighten up in the Upper Tanana
Valley and the the Tanana Valley Jet to redevelop.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus will continue to hang
around with little change. May see an occasional break in the
clouds, but otherwise cloudy with light snow or flurries. Areas of
fog will combine with the snow to reduce visibility at times.
Snowfall will be less than an inch. Winds will persist from the
northeast and east at 5 to 20 mph through Thursday. Thursday night
winds in the Eastern Arctic will start to swing around to the
north as a trough drops out of the Beaufort Sea into the area.
This will also spread some snow to the Eastern Arctic Coast
Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Some clouds moving around the
low to the south with a trough extending up the west coast and
over the Seward Peninsula. Light snow over most of the area
tonight with accumulations up to 2 inches, but generally less
than 1 inch. Snow may combine with patchy fog to reduce
visibility at times. The next system developing in the Bering Sea
will move to St Lawrence Island Thursday night and Winter Storm
Warning has been issued. As it progresses east winds diminish a
bit so expect near Blizzard conditions for some coastal areas.
Inland winds remain generally less than 10 mph but will be gusty
as the system moves in.

Central and Eastern Interior...High pressure over the Yukon
continues to hold so Tanana Valley Jet will persist then fall
apart Thursday as the high weakens and pulls back southeast. Gap
flow winds pick up this evening with the strongest winds expected
overnight, then diminish early Thursday. Strongest winds will be
45 to 55 mph. A bubble high north of the Ray Mountains will
dissipate this evening, so expect gusty winds to 40 mph along and
north of the Elliott Highway diminishing rapidly this evening.
Clouds spreading into the interior as a broad trough develops over
the Central and Eastern Interior. Increased chances of some light
snow in the interior Thursday into Friday. Snow accumulations up
to 2 inches will be possible with around 1 inch around Fairbanks.
Except for the Gap winds and Tanana Valley Jet winds, winds will
be light and variable. Temperatures will continue to slowly warm
through Saturday.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Some elevated surf on
Diomede and near Tin City Friday otherwise no issues.

&&

Extended Forecast days 4 to 7...Better agreement in the guidance
for the extended periods. Will generally be a quiet Sunday, then
guidance indicating a strong Chinook event Monday as a 960 mb low
moves north to Bristol Bay. Very strong winds in the Alaska Range
possible Monday with a good push of warm air into the Middle
Tanana Valley as the Chinook develops.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.

&&

SDB NOV 17