Gale Warning 128, NWS Fairbanks, AK

075 
FZAK52 PAFG 081344
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
444 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-090315-
444 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 965 mb low 300 nm NW of Wrangel Island will slowly weaken in
as it moves east along 75N. By Friday morning it will be 300 nm 
NW of Barrow as a 992 mb low. Several weather fronts associated 
with the low will move E across the area into mainland Alaska.

$$

PKZ200-090315-
Norton Sound-
444 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. Freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-090315-
Dall Point to Wales-
444 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-090315-
Kotzebue Sound-
444 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-090315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
444 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog. Rain showers. Freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...SW winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.  

$$

CCC Nov 17

632 
FZAK52 PAFG 090003
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-091500-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front will move to the West Coast this evening. High
pressure will build over the Central Bering Sea tonight and move
over the early Fri. A 972 mb low remains NW of Wrangel Island and
will wobble around tonight before moving E along 75N. The low 
will be 250 nm N of Barrow by Fri afternoon with strong NW winds 
developing over the Chukchi Sea.

$$

PKZ200-091500-
Norton Sound-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt becoming W and diminishing to 30 kt. 
Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain. Freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-091500-
Dall Point to Wales-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-091500-
Kotzebue Sound-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft subsiding.
Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-091500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
303 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft. Freezing
fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.
Freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

SDB Nov 17

066 
FZAK52 PAFG 091346
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
446 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-100315-
446 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong front over the western interior associated with a 994 mb
low over Kotzebue Sound this morning will continue to weaken as 
it moves inland. High pressure will build over the Central Bering 
Sea tonight and Friday.


$$

PKZ200-100315-
Norton Sound-
446 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-100315-
Dall Point to Wales-
446 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-100315-
Kotzebue Sound-
446 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Freezing fog.
Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-100315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
446 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog and freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

CCC Nov 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
123 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Not much change from yesterday as models remain in step
with good run to run continuity. Agreement remains good in the
short term. There is some disagreement in the midrange handling of
the low that will be moving across the Chukchi Sea Saturday. The
GFS want to make it a much stronger low and push int south of the
Brooks Range while the Canadian and ECMWF keep it north of the
Brooks Range. Location will have a significant impact on what will
happen in interior Alaska. Extended periods beyond 144 hours remain
in better agreement as ridge builds over the Bering Sea. The
07/12Z solutions initialized well against the 07/18Z surface
analysis with the front just a bit slower. Will utilize an equal
blend of solutions for most elements this forecast cycle, the
exception will be precipitation where we will use a bit more of
the NAM solution to bring snow into the Central Interior slightly
earlier than the other solutions are currently bringing it in.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...High amplitude ridge lies from a 556 dam
center over Yakutat over the AlCan Border and Beaufort Sea as it
continues east the slow march east. A 496 dam low that was over
the Sea of Ohkotsk has moved to 200 nm northwest of Wrangel
Island and will remain quasi stationary through Thursday morning,
then start moving east across the Arctic over 75N. A shortwave
associated with the low is moving over the northwest coast
extending south into the Middle Yukon Valley. The shortwave will
move northeast as it rides up over the ridging to the east. A
second shortwave is moving across the Gulf of Anadyr and the
central Bering Sea, and will move across the Chukchi Sea, Bering
Strait, and Eastern Bering Sea overnight, and by Wednesday morning
it will lie from Point Lay to Allakaket to Glennallen, and will
continue to move east in the zonal flow that develops over the
state. A third shortwave will move to the Chukchi Sea and central
Bering Sea Wednesday afternoon moving over the Northwest and West
Coasts Wednesday evening, moving east across the state south of
the Brooks Range on Thursday as a 512 dam low develops in the
Central Brooks Range. At 850 hpa...Some patches of above zero
temperatures hanging on over the eastern Arctic and Interior in
advance of the front, but the cooling trend has begun.
Temperatures will continue to fall the next few days to around
-10C, and to -10C to -20C by Friday morning. Expect a slight
 warmup on Saturday, then significant cooling starting Sunday.

Surface...High pressure hanging on in the Eastern Interior with a
1023 mb high in the Upper Yukon Flats and ridging extending
southwest to a 1019 high over Sleetmute, and southeast to a 1037
mb high in the southeast Yukon Territory. 965 mb low 300 nm
northwest of Wrangel Island will slowly weaken, then move east
along 75N as it continues to weaken, and by Friday morning it will
be 300 nm northeast of Wrangel Island at 992 mb. A weather front
associated with the low currently lies from Cape Halkett to Ruby
as it moves northeast riding up over the high pressure over the
Southeast Interior. The second front will move to the West Coast
tonight around midnight, and move east into the Western Interior
Wednesday morning spreading snow into the Central Interior in
advance of the front. The front will move northeast into the Yukon
Territory as the high pressure over the Yukon Territory recedes
southeast. A third front will move to the West Coast Wednesday
afternoon spreading significant snowfall to some West Coast and
Western Interior locations Wednesday night, before moving into the
Central and Eastern Interior on Thursday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Front is moving fairly rapidly
east across the area. Some lower clouds with the front and light
snow, but it has not lasted long in the areas it has passed
through and expect that to continue this evening before it falls
apart. Next front will spread snow over the Northwest Coast, then
it moves offshore, so maybe some flurries east of Wainwright on
the coast, but no significant snow. There will be some significant
snow in the Brooks Range Wednesday and Thursday and Winter Storm
Warnings have been issued and remain in effect. Winds gusting to
around 40 mph will kick up some blowing snow reducing visibility
at times to less than one half mile in the Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...Significant weather event
impacting the area will continue for the next few days. Strong
south winds will swing around to southwest and west behind the
next front that will be moving to the coast tonight producing at
least minor Coastal Flooding in Norton Sound Wednesday into
Thursday. The second front will be moving into the area overnight
and spread significant snowfall to portions of the Seward
Peninsula and Noatak Valley, areas of the Seward Peninsula, and
the Nulato Hills. See current Warnings and Advisories.

Central and Eastern Interior...Stratus cleared out finally, now
high clouds have moved over the area in advance of the front that
is riding northeast over the high pressure over the Southeast
Interior. As the next front approaches snow develops and pushes
into the Central Interior Wednesday morning and will continue on
and off through the day, then some clearing late Wednesday
evening before the next system moves into the area and spreads 2
to 5 inches of snow over the Central interior with 3 to 10 inches
of snow to the north of the Yukon River. Winds generally light and
variable. Temperatures cooling through the weekend.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Models continue to show a
981 mb low moving across the Chukchi Sea Saturday and Sunday and
into northwest Alaska. This will bring strong west to northwest
winds of 25 to 40 mph gusting to 55 mph to the Chukchi Sea Coast,
and Kotzebue Sound. The strong winds will produce waves to 14 ft
in the Chuckchi Sea and 9 ft in outer Kotzebue Sound. There is
some ice in Kotzebue Sound, but expect that will not be enough to
provide any protection at this time. Confidence is increasing
that there will be at least minor Coastal Flooding in Kotzebue
Sound and around Shishmaref.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 8...Confidence is increasing that
a significant winter storm will move into the state from the
northwest spreading heavy snow, gusty winds, and near blizzard
conditions in blowing snow to most of the forecast area Saturday
and Sunday. Snowfall will range from 4 to 12 inches, and winds
increase to 20 to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph. Behind the storm a
much cooler airmass will move over the state.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Wind Warning for AKZ213.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ211-AKZ218.

Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ211.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ235.

&&

SDB NOV 17