Gale Warning 119, NWS Fairbanks, AK

783 
FZAK69 PAFG 130031
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
331 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-131500-
331 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 994 mb low near Point Barrow will move SE into the Yukon
Territory Monday morning. A ridge of high pressure will move over
the Chukchi Sea with a 1034 mb center near Wrangel Island. The
ridge will merge with high pressure moving S out of over the high
Arctic and a 1037 mb center will be move to 200 nm N of Prudhoe
Bay Mon night. 

$$

PKZ500-131500-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
331 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.Tonight...NW winds 40 kt with gusts to around 55 kt diminishing
to 25 kt with gusts to around 40 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-131500-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
331 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.Tonight...NE winds 20 kt. Snow in the evening. Freezing fog in 
the evening, then blowing snow after midnight. VSBY 1 NM or less 
in the evening. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow in the morning. Heavy freezing
spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ510-131500-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
331 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

SDB Nov 17

796 
FZAK69 PAFG 130033 CCA
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
333 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-131500-
333 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 994 mb low near Point Barrow will move SE into the Yukon
Territory Monday morning. A ridge of high pressure will move over
the Chukchi Sea with a 1034 mb center near Wrangel Island. The
ridge will merge with high pressure moving S out of the high 
Arctic and a 1037 mb center will move to 200 nm N of Prudhoe Bay 
Mon night. 

$$

PKZ500-131500-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
333 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.Tonight...NW winds 40 kt with gusts to around 55 kt diminishing
to 25 kt with gusts to around 40 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-131500-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
333 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.Tonight...NE winds 20 kt. Snow in the evening. Freezing fog in 
the evening, then blowing snow after midnight. VSBY 1 NM or less 
in the evening. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow in the morning. Heavy freezing
spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ510-131500-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
333 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

SDB Nov 17

793 
FZAK69 PAFG 131219
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
319 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-140115-
319 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 995 mb low near Point Barrow will move SE into the Yukon
Territory Monday morning. A ridge of high pressure will move over
the Chukchi Sea with a 1034 mb center near Wrangel Island. The
ridge will merge with high pressure moving S out of the high 
Arctic and a 1037 mb center will move to 200 nm N of Prudhoe Bay 
Mon night.

$$

PKZ500-140115-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
319 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.Today...N winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-140115-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
319 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

PKZ510-140115-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
319 AM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

Nov 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 PM AKST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A long wave ridge over the Bering Sea and western Alaska will
persist into next week and retrograde late next week as a long
wave trough develops over NW Canada and Eastern Ak. Several strong
short waves moving through the ridge are bringing periods of warm
moist flow with plenty of snow, winds, warm temperatures.
Conditions will remain stormy and warmer than normal into next
week with the Eastern Interior Cooling to well below zero late
next week.

The first strong short wave that lies long the Dateline will move
over NW Alaska tonight, to the Central North Slope to Eastern
Interior Sun, and along the Alcan Border Mon. This is bringing a
strong surface low and front along with heavy snow and strong
winds to much of Northern Alaska tonight and Sun. Will address
specifics with surface system below.

Surface...
A 1015 mb low 300 nm north of Barter Island will dissipate his
evening.

High pressure over the Interior of Alaska will move east tonight.
Areas of stratus and flurries over the Eastern Interior will
dissipate this evening as the high moves east, excepting near the
Alcan Border area.

A 994 mb low near Wrangel Island will move to 400 nm northwest of
Barrow as a 987 mb low by 3am Sun, to 60 nm west of Barrow as a
999 mb low by by 3pm Sun, to near Prudhoe Bay as a 1011 mb low by
3am Mon, to near Point Thompson as a 1021 mb low by 3pm Mon, Then
move to near Mentasta Pass as a 1025 mb low by 3pm Tue.

A Cold front stretches south along the Dateline with a warm front
from the low to Point Lay to the Yukon Delta. The Cold front will
move to Wainwright to Ambler to Bethel by 3am Sun with the warm
front from Ambler to Denali. By 3pm Sun the front will stretch
from the low to Barter Island to Isabell Pass with the warm front
occluding, then move to Deadhorse to Inuvik to Whitehorse by 3am
Mon.

South winds 25-35kt with higher gusts now occuring ahead of
the cold front. Heavy Snow is occuring between the warm front and
cold front which changes to rain along the coast. Precip should
remain all snow inland areas with up to 12 inches in south facing
higher terrain in zones 208 217. Winds will turn West 25-40kt with
the cold front with the strongest winds closer to the low center
north of Point Hope. Precip will change to all snow along and west
of the cold front with another 4 inches with it.

As the front moves inland expect west winds 20 mph with gusts to
30 mph and significant blowing snow. Snow amounts in the Central
and Eastern Interior will range from 6 to 12 inches, heaviest
near the Alaska Range. On the North Slope expect 6-10 inches of
snow, heaviest near the Brooks Range. Will see strong winds and
blowing snow on the north slope as well.

An arctic cold front sweeping in behind the cold front will move
to Point Lay to Gambell by 3am Sun, to Barrow to Bettles to
McGrath by 3pm Sun, to Barter Island to Denali by 3am Mon,
and to east of the Alcan Border by 3pm Mon. Will see snow and
winds continue along this front, but winds and snow will taper off
west of it.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well and similar through 3am Mon. After that
time the ECMF weakens the low over the eastern North SLope more
quickly than the GFS and NAM. There is a lingering short wave
trough over this area so favor the GFS solution.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Expect high surf now through Sunday afternoon south of the Bering
Strait. Expect minor coastal flooding from the Bering strait to
Point Franklin tonight through Early Monday.

Storm surge of 3 to 4 feet near Shishmaref tonight through Sun
night.
Storm surge of 5 to 6 feet from Deering to Kotzebue
tonight through Sun Night.
Storm surge of 4 to 5 feet at Kivalina and Point Hope
tonight through Sun Night.
Storm surge 4 to 6 feet from Cape Lisburne to Point Franklin from
late tonight through Sun Night.

High surf expected at Barrow tonight through early Mon. Low
pressure center expected to move over Barrow keeping winds lower,
but if low center moves further north of Barrow on Sunday this
could be a much larger issue and will need to be watch closely.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ224-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ235.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
&&

JB NOV 17