Gale Warning 116, NWS Fairbanks, AK

432 
FZAK69 PAFG 062353
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
253 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-071500-
253 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
High pressure over the Eastern Arctic with a 1032 mb center over
MacKenzie Bay will move E. A weather front associated with a 982 
mb low over Siberia will move NE into the Arctic tonight as the
low moves to 200 nm W of Wrangel Island and becomes stationary. 
The front will move N into the Arctic and E into the Beaufort Sea 
by Wed morning. A second front will move to the Chukchi Sea Wed 
morning and move NE into the Arctic Wed night. 

$$

PKZ500-071500-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
253 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.Tonight...S winds 40 kt with gusts to around 55 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-071500-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
253 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

.Tonight...S winds 30 kt with gusts to around 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ510-071500-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
253 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

SDB Nov 17

588 
FZAK69 PAFG 071407
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
507 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-080115-
507 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
High pressure over the Eastern Arctic with a 1028 mb center over 
just east of MacKenzie Bay will continue to move east. A weather 
front associated with a 970 mb low 200 nm west of Wrangle Island
will continue to move north and east through tonight. The front 
will move N into the Arctic and E into the Beaufort Sea by Wed 
morning. A second front will move to the Chukchi Sea Wed morning 
and move NE into the Arctic Wed night.

$$

PKZ500-080115-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
507 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.Today...S winds 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-080115-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
507 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

.Today...S winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Blowing snow through the day.
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ510-080115-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
507 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

CCC Nov 17

661 
FZAK69 PAFG 072343
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
243 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-081500-
243 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 965 mb low 300 nm NW of Wrangel Island will slowly weaken in
place through Wed, then move E along 75N, and by Friday morning 
it will be 300 nm NE of Wrangel Island at 992 mb. Several fronts
associated with the low will move NE across the Arctic through
Fri. The low will move to 250 nm N of Barrow by Fri afternoon at
1002 mb.


$$

PKZ500-081500-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
243 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.Tonight...S winds 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. 
Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.
Freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-081500-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
243 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

.Tonight...S winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.  

$$

PKZ510-081500-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
243 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

SDB Nov 17

823 
FZAK69 PAFG 081334
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
434 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-090115-
434 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 965 mb low 300 nm NW of Wrangel Island will slowly weaken in
as it moves east along 75N. By Friday morning it will be 300 nm 
NW of Barrow as a 992 mb low. Several fronts associated with the 
low will move NE across the Arctic through Fri.

$$

PKZ500-090115-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
434 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.Today...S winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog through the
night. Snow showers in the evening. Snow after midnight. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-090115-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
434 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.Today...S winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog in the
evening. Freezing spray. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ510-090115-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
434 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

CCC Nov 17

736 
FZAK69 PAFG 082351
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
251 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-091500-
251 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 972 mb low remains NW of Wrangel Island and will wobble around 
tonight before moving E along 75N. The low will be 250 nm N of
Barrow by Fri afternoon with strong NW winds developing over 
the SW Arctic. A weak ridge will move W to E across the Arctic
Sat. 

$$

PKZ500-091500-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
251 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.Tonight...SW winds 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...W winds 25 kt with gusts to around 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI...W winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-091500-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
251 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.Tonight...S winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow in the evening.
Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Snow in the 
afternoon. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ510-091500-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
251 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

No forecast as area is mostly ice-covered.

$$

SDB Nov 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
354 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread is minimal through both the short range as well as the mid
range. Model spread both between model families and from run to
run is quite reasonable in the long range.

A long wave ridge centered over the eastern Bering Sea and Western
Alaska will push east today to be centered over the western and
central interior as a deep upper level low moves east over the
Chuktosk Peninsula tonight and Tuesday. The ridge will continue to
move east over the central and eastern interior Tuesday into
Wednesday.

The surface reflection of the upper level low moves north today
out of the Kamchatka Peninsula into the Chuktosk Peninsula and
deepens to around 974 mb. A tight pressure gradient develops along
a strong front wrapping around the low and extending into the
western Bering Sea today. The front will move north and east today
and will pass through the Bering Strait tonight. Very strong
winds are expected ahead of and along the front today and tonight
and have prompted high wind warnings for St Lawrence Island, the
Bering Strait as well as the Chukchi Sea Coast north of Kivalina.
Wind gusts to 65 mph are expected on St Lawrence Island and
through the Bering Strait and wind gusts to 60 mph are expected
along the Chukchi Sea Coast north of Kivalina especially near
Point Hope.

Mixed rain and snow showers are expected ahead of the front south
of the Seward Peninsula with mostly snow showers expected to the
north. Snow showers will move into the western interior tonight
and into the central interior tomorrow with 1 to 2 inches of snow
expected. Strong southeast winds are expected to develop over
Kotzebue Sound and will need to monitor timing of snow and winds
and potential for reduced visibilities in blowing snow for
areas near Kotzebue Sound.

Surge guidance continues to indicate above normal tides in the 1
to 2 foot range along the northwest coast associated with the low
pressure passing to the west however winds are expected to remain
off shore or at worst case along shore tonight and Tuesday and are
not expected to push waves up the beach. Duration and direction of
the stronger winds will not favor high wave run up onto the
beaches along the northwest coast. Elevated water levels in the 2
to 3 foot range are also indicated along the south and southwest
facing coasts along the western Seward Peninsula and through the
Bering Strait. The short duration of the strong southerly winds
combined with a relatively short fetch will limit elevated surf
impacts in these areas. Winds shift to the west over Norton Sound
Tuesday night behind the front and will increase water level to
around 3 to 4 feet above normal tide levels Wednesday over eastern
Norton Sound. West winds will continue into Wednesday night and
Thursday morning and will continue to pile up water into eastern
Norton Sound. Continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Winds shift to the west over Norton Sound Tuesday night behind
the front and will increase water level to around 3 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels Wednesday over eastern Norton Sound. West
winds will continue into Wednesday night and Thursday morning and
will continue to pile up water into eastern Norton Sound.
Continue to monitor.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CCC NOV 17