Gale Warning 112, NWS Fairbanks, AK

841 
FZAK51 PAFG 272219
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
219 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-281415-
219 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 993 mb low pressure near Nome will track north today and 
weaken. A 998 mb low will form over the Chukchi Sea on
Saturday and track northeast near Barrow as a 1012 mb low
Sunday morning. A 1041 mb high builds over the Brooks range
by Wednesday morning.

$$

PKZ225-281415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
219 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-281415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
219 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-281415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
219 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-281415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
219 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-281415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
219 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Oct 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
425 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Good agreement in the short term, and they initialized
well against the 06Z surface analysis. As the longwave trough sets
up over the Chukchi Sea and central Bering Sea models are not
handling shortwaves similarly, so will need to watch this as the
pattern evolves. They are all handling the building ridge over the
Eastern Interior similarly, and they are all picking up on the
developing system that will move over the Southwest Mainland
Sunday night and Monday. Models diverge quite a bit starting
Monday night. The GFS and ECMWF are likely being a bit overzealous
with the precipitation in the Central and Eastern Interior, so
will lean toward the NAM solution for the short term.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...The stacked low that moved through the
Bering earlier this week continues to weaken as it moves north and
is over the western Chukchi Sea this morning at 514 dam. A
secondary low in the trough is over the central Bering Sea at 517
dam. The low over the western Chukchi Sea will remain stationary
through Saturday morning, while the low over the Bering will move
to 100 nm south of Adak. A shortwave moving in the flow lies from
Norton Sound to Kodiak Island this morning, and will move
northeast to lie from Koyuk to Anchorage by around noon, and from
Anaktuvuk Pass to Dawson by early evening, and out of the state
overnight. Flow over the forecast area will wobble around from
southwest to west southwest into Monday morning, then strong
southwest flow Monday into Tuesday. Ridging will build in behind
the shortwave with 540 dam heights building north over the Alaska
Range this evening, and north over the eastern Brooks Range and
west over the Yukon River by Saturday morning. 540 dam height will
continue to push north through Sunday morning to the eastern
Arctic Coast, and west to the coast south of Kotzebue Sound. The
low that moves south of the Aleutians reorganizes Sunday and moves
north over Nikolski to the Pribilof Islands by Monday morning,
and over Kuskokwim Bay by Monday afternoon. At 850 hpa...Patches
of above zero temperatures over the Central and Eastern Interior
today will gradually erode away or move off to the east and most
of the forecast area will cool to -5 to -10 Celsius by this
evening. Another weak chinook develops Saturday night so some
patches of above zero temperatures developing north of the Alaska
Range, stronger chinook flow and low pushing over the southwest
mainland will push the zero isotherm into the Western, Central,
and Eastern Interior south and east of the Yukon River.

Surface...A 993 mb low over the lower Yukon Delta will continues
to move slowly north and will be over Norton Sound later this
morning, then over the Chukchi Sea this afternoon at 997 mb. A
weather front associated with the low will move over the southwest
mainland this morning, and across the Central Interior and Middle
Tanana Valley early this evening as it continues to weaken. Rain
and snow are spreading over the southwest interior this morning
and will move into the Western and Central Interior later this
morning. Precipitation character will be the most difficult to
figure out today as it transitions from snow, to rain and snow,
to rain, and then back to snow in areas south of the Seward
Peninsula and the Yukon River. Chinook flow over the Alaska Range
will weaken, but still expect gusts to around 40 mph today.
Stronger chinook flow redevelops Saturday morning as leeside
trough develops and winds will return to gusting to around 50 mph
near passes west of the Tok Cutoff. Strong pressure gradient over
the Arctic Coast and nearshore waters is being squeezed a bit this
morning as the low moves north, and winds are gusting to around
40 mph from Point Lay to Demarcation Point. As high pressure
pushes north the gradient is shoved north as well and the
strongest winds will move offshore except over the Central Arctic
Coast near Point Barrow. Developing surface low south of the
Aleutians on Sunday will move to Kuskokwim Bay by Monday morning
at 983 mb reenhancing the leeside trough and the Chinook Flow.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Snow, wind, blowing snow, fog, low
ceilings, poor visibility, and temperatures in the 20s. Autumn in
the Arctic. Strong low pressure system in the Bering Sea is now
moving up the West Coast and will be in the Chukchi Sea this
afternoon. Pressure gradient over the northwest coast has
tightened up and winds are gusting to around 40 mph, but will
diminish later this morning. The remainder of the coast will
continue to have strong winds gusting to around 40 mph most of the
day, but as the low moves north and high pressure pushes north the
gradient will move north as well with strongest winds moving
over the nearshore waters except around Point Barrow and
vicinity. Most areas will get around 2 inches of new snow today,
with heavier snowfall of around 4 inches from Deadhorse east over
the coast. Trough has developed over the Arctic Coast as well and
northeast to east winds will continue through Saturday before
swinging around to southwest.

West Coast and Western Interior...Very messy with a mix of rain,
snow, freezing rain, and windy. Over the coast from the Seward
Peninsula north expect it will remain mainly snow with
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. To the south is will be mainly
rain. Moving inland south of Huslia it will be a mix of rain and
snow, with mainly snow from Huslia north. Snowfall south of Huslia
will be up to an inch, but most likely melt off. From Huslia north
snowfall will range from 2 to 5 inches with the heaviest amounts
along the south slopes of the Brooks Range. Winds will be swinging
around from northeast to southwest as the low moves up the coast.
Strongest winds on the Chukchi Sea Coast and in the Bering Strait
this morning with gusts around 40 mph possible. Winds will
diminish through the day, then snap around to southwest and
increase to 10 to 20 mph Saturday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Rain shadow from the Chinook flow
will keep Fairbanks on the edge of precipitation most of today.
Expect a mix of rain and snow to the west of Fairbanks from Tanana
south most of the day, with snow to the north. Precipitation will
move east over the Middle Tanana Valley this afternoon and may
start out as rain before rapidly changing over to snow. Road
surface temperatures have been on the rise the last couple days so
expect that rain freezing on contact will not be an issue today.
Snow accumulation next 24 hours will be heaviest north of the
Yukon River with up to 5 inches possible around Bettles, Coldfoot,
and the White mountains and Upper Chena River Basin. Up to 2
inches can be expected in the remainder of the area as
temperatures cool tonight. Winds generally light, but as front
moves through the area this afternoon and tonight expect winds to
kick up to 5 to 15 mph with some gusts to around 30 mph over the
hills.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Pattern will be relatively
quiet with 1040 mb high building over interior Alaska. Warming
temperatures over the West Coast and Western Interior with cooler
temperatures to the east. Precipitation will be limited to the
eastern Arctic Coast and Eastern Brooks Range.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ216-AKZ227.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-
AKZ221.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ235.

&&

SDB OCT 17