Gale Warning 111, NWS Fairbanks, AK

335 
FZAK52 PAFG 242312
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-251430-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 943 mb low near Shemya will will move east along the Aleutians 
through 4pm Wed and then into Bristol Bay as a 987 low by 4pm Fri.
A weak 1004 mb low over the northern Chukchi Sea will dissipate 
through Wed.

$$

PKZ200-251430-
Norton Sound-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building
to 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog. Snow showers. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-251430-
Dall Point to Wales-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 24 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft. Fog.
Snow and Rain. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Fog. rain and snow. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing rain. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-251430-
Kotzebue Sound-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 24 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Snow
showers. Freezing spray.
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-251430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
312 PM AKDT Tue Oct 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds increasing to 25 kt late. Seas building to 5 
ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Snow
showers. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Oct 17

872 
FZAK52 PAFG 251319
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
519 AM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-260230-
519 AM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1008 mb low near Inuvik will move to Banks Island by 4pm Wed
and then weaken. A 950 mb low near Adak will move to the Eastern 
Aleutians tonight, to the Yukon Delta as a 988 mb low by 4pm Thu,
and to 100 nm north of the Bering Strait as a 993 mb low by 4pm 
Fri.

$$

PKZ200-260230-
Norton Sound-
519 AM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-260230-
Dall Point to Wales-
519 AM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE winds 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Fog. Snow showers.
Freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog. Snow showers. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-260230-
Kotzebue Sound-
519 AM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.  
Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-260230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
519 AM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 7 
ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Oct 17

908 
FZAK52 PAFG 252304
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 PM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-261430-
304 PM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 970 mb low near Cold Bay will move northeast to near Nunivak 
Island as a 986 mb low Thursday evening and near St Lawrence 
Island as a 988 mb low Friday morning.

$$

PKZ200-261430-
Norton Sound-
304 PM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog and freezing
fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-261430-
Dall Point to Wales-
304 PM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers and freezing
rain. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-261430-
Kotzebue Sound-
304 PM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft
subsiding. Freezing fog and blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less.
Freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ220-261430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
304 PM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Rain
showers. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing rain. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

CCC Oct 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
512 AM AKDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A long wave trough over mainland Alaska and the Bering Sea will
retrograde over the Bering Sea Wed with a ridge building over the
Gulf of Alaska and Eastern Alaska. This will cause moist
southwest flow to develop over Northern Alaska tonight and Wed
that continues into the weekend. Precipitation, strong winds, and
much warmer temperatures will move over Northern Alaska with the
southwest flow Wed and continue into the weekend.

A short wave trough from Kotzebue to Northway will move over the
North Slope of Alaska by 4pm Tue, then dissipate along the Arctic
Coast tonight. Expect isolated to scattered snow showers along
and north of this trough. See surface section below for enhances
areas of snow.

A second short wave trough from Nome to Galena to Dillingham will
move to Kotzebue to McGrath by 4pm Tue, then dissipate over the
Brooks Range by 4am Wed. Another batch of scattered snow showers
with this trough.

A third short wave trough over the YK Delta will move to Galena
to McGrath by 4pm Tue, then merge with the second short wave over
the Brooks Range by 4ma Wed. Some more showers with this.

Surface.... A low pressure trough just north of the Arctic Coast
of Alaska will persist through Wed AM. This will cause weak
offshore winds along the Arctic Coast along with cold temperatures
through tonight.

A 1012 mb low near Minto will move to near Demarcation Point as a
1009 mb low by 4pm Tue, to north of Inuvik as a 1007 mb low by 4am
Wed, and then continue northeast. A cold front extending south
from this low will move to Old Crow to Denali by 4pm Tue, then
persist into Wed. There is snow with the low center and scattered
snow showers along the cold front. Expect less than one inch of
snow with this.

The main feature for this week is a 936 mb low near its minimum
depth now in the southwest Bering Sea. This low will move east
along the Aleutians through 4pm Wed and then move into the
southeast Bering Wed night and Thu. A strong occluded front
stretches from this low to Adak and will move northeast into the
southeast Bering Sea by 4pm Tue, to St Matthew Island to Cape
Romanzof to Dillingham by 4am Wed, to Gambell to Nome to McGrath
by 4pm Wed, to Gambell to Kivalina to a 1004 mb low near Barter
Island by 4am Thu with a trailing front from Barter Island to
Denali. Front will then weaken in place Thu.

Snow will occur ahead of the front, changing to rain after the
front along the West Coast, and changing to freezing rain along
the front over the southern Interior. Expect 4 inches of snow
along the coast along, with 6-8 inches in the Western Interior.
Expect ice accumulation of .10-.25 inch over zones 215 216 and 227
Wed and Wed night, with lesser accumulations over zones 221 and
225 Wed PM and Thu. Freezing rain is possible in zone 222 223 and
226 Wed night into Thu as well.

Expect blowing snow along the West Coast with low visibility
before the front passes. Easterly gales will develop over the
northern Bering Sea ahead of the front tonight and Wed, turning
southeast and decreasing south of the front. Winds will increase
to 20-30kt over Kotzebue Sound Wed Ahead of the front. Will see
winds of 15-25 kt over the Western Interior with the front Wed.

Strong gap flow through Alaska Range passes will develop Wed and
continue into Thu. Chinook flow will develop across the Alaska
Range Wed and then vary from weak to moderate through Thu which
will add to the surface winds and cause temperatures to warm
considerable in the Tanana Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At H500 models initialize well and similar through 4pm Thu. At
the surface models verify well at 06Z Tue. The GFS deepens the
very strong low in the southwest Bering 5 mb deeper than the NAM
and GFS by 4am this morning, which appears to be happening. The
GFS is also slightly faster with the northeast movement of the
front associated with this low which also appears to be happening.
Thus the GFS is preferred in this strong feature through Thu.
From Thu night into Fri the GFS remains a bit faster with the
weather front moving northeast over Alaska and remains the
preferred model. From Fri into next week the long wave pattern is
similar but there are significant differences in timing and
strength of short waves from the weekend into next week giving a
high degree of uncertainty to the forecast from the weekend into
next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ227.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-
AKZ221-AKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

&&

JB OCT 17