Brisk Wind Advisory 74, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Initialized well against the 13/06Z surface analysis.
Good agreement on position and strength of major features across
the area of concern. They remain in good agreement into the
midrange before diverging significantly. Will use an equal blend
for the near term today. Temperatures will be difficult since
models will not produce a good trend, so will need to manually
force them.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...490 dam low that drifted south over the west
coast is over Bristol Bay. The low will drift over Sand Point by
Tuesday morning at 487 dam, then rotate back north over eastern
Bristol Bay by Wednesday morning at 490 dam, then moves north over
the lower Yukon Delta by Thursday morning at 498 dam, and over
Norton Sound by Friday morning at 500 dam. Ridging over the west
coast of North America has push in over the mainland alaska west
to the middle Yukon Valley and north to the Brooks Range this
morning and will persist into Tuesday morning before it weakens
and slowly starts to retreat Tuesday as a shortwave pushes north
over the ridge. Ridging will push back to the west over the Brooks
Range behind the shortwave on Wednesday. High in the arctic a 490
dam low will spin a shortwave over the northwest and central
arctic coast today, then a second shortwave will dig the trough
south over the Chukchi Sea Wednesday where is stalls as the
ridging builds west and slides north from the Brooks Range to the
arctic coast Thursday. At 850 hpa...The zero isotherm makes an
appearance over the interior and pushes north to lie from Old Crow
YT to Fairbanks to Mcgrath by Tuesday morning before receding
back into Canada.

Surface...A 981 mb low in the high arctic will spin a warm front
east over the northwest and central arctic coast today then pulls
it north. Weak ridging will persist over the Brooks Range and
northern Interior. A 962 mb low 200 nm southwest of Kodiak Island
is spinning an occluded front over the central and eastern
interior this morning and will continue to spin moisture north as
it moves into Bristol Bay tonight at 966 mb. Leeside troughing has
developed north of the Alaska Range and the Tanana Valley jet has
set up in the Delta Junction area. A second wave sent north by
the low will move over the Alaska range on Tuesday morning and gap
flow winds will develop in the Alaska Range. A trough will set up
over the state from Bethel to Old Crow on Tuesday and persist
over that area into Thursday as a broad area of cyclonic flow
around the low in Bristol Bay develops over the state and adjacent
waters. Leeside troughing will develop north of the Brooks Range
Tuesday over the arctic plains and persist through Thursday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Front moving over the northwest
and central arctic coast will spread some snow to the mainly the
coastal areas from Barrow west today then moves offshore. The
first wave moving north over the interior will move to the eastern
arctic coast and eastern Brooks Range this evening with snow
developing east of Nuiqsut tonight and remaining mainly east of
Barrow through Thursday. Snow accumulations today will be around
one inch on the northwest coast, and through Wednesday morning
east of Barrow up to 6 inches will be possible with the heaviest
amounts in the eastern Brooks Range. The GOES MVFR Probability
product at 13/0930Z indicating quite a bit of MVFR conditions over
the coastal areas west of Nuiqsut and just off shore to the east.
Do not expect that will change much today, but expect lowering
ceilings over the eastern Brooks Range and arctic coast tonight.
Temperatures a bit warmer on the northwest coast, otherwise not
much change.

West Coast and Western Interior...Biggest issue will be winds
increasing over the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island.
Northeast winds will increase slowly through today and tonight and
peak on Tuesday with gusts near 60 mph possible. Winds will
remain strong through the remainder of the week over the area.
Winds will also be relatively strong in Norton Sound and the
Chukchi Sea. Inland areas will see northeast winds 5 to 20 mph.
Typical low stratus ceilings over the coast areas as well from 500
to 2500 feet. Expect some flurries and fog with the stratus over
the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island with reduced visibility
at times. No significant snow accumulation is expected. In the
lower Yukon Delta snow is developing and will spread northeast as
the trough sets up. Accumulations of 2 to 5 inches can be expected
through Wednesday morning in the middle Yukon Valley and lower
Yukon Delta. Temperatures will be warmer in the inland areas with
not much change in the coastal areas.

Central and Eastern Interior...Relatively cloudy the next couple
days as the low sends waves north over the interior. Slight chance
of some freezing sprinkles around Fairbanks with the second wave
this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon but currently looks
like flurries. Not expecting any accumulating freezing rain
anywhere. There is a slightly better chance of freezing rain in
the Alaska Range and along the leeside of the range south of
Fairbanks, but expect the models are overdoing the precipitation
and it will be chinooked out. Snow will develop mainly to the
north and west of Fairbanks as a trough sets up between Bethel and
Old Crow YT. Snowfall amounts of will range from less than half
and inch up to 8 inches through Wednesday morning The heaviest
snowfall will be in an areas between Livengood and Bettles and
from Tanana to Old Crow YT. Strong winds in and around Delta
Junction as the Tanana Valley jet has set up with the leeside
trough and low over the Tanana Flats, and ridging to the east. Gap
flow winds developing in the eastern Alaska Range Tuesday during
the day with gusts to 55 mph possible south of Delta Junction.
Temperatures are on the rise and will continue to warm with
temperatures slightly warmer each day through midweek.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ245.

&&

SDB FEB 17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
326 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2017

AKZ221>226-140300-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs,
Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park,
Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids,
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
326 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2017

...WARMER AIR AND SLICK ROADS IN THE INTERIOR...

Warm moist air is flowing into the interior today and may produce
slippery road conditions as frost develops on the paved roads.

Temperatures will continue to warm today pushing above zero by
afternoon in many locations south of the Yukon River. Highs in the
Fairbanks area will be in the teens with warmer temperatures to
the south.

Road surfaces will remain frozen and as the warm air moves over
them frost will develop, especially on low traffic and shaded
roads, creating slick driving conditions. Conditions may improve
during the overnight hours as temperatures fall. These
conditions are expected to last through midweek.

For the latest forecasts go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks