Brisk Wind Advisory 68, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
149 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread is is reasonable through Monday of next week but increases
beyond that point with significant differences on timing and
location, and strength of shortwave features but these is still
reasonable agreement on the whole on large scale features into the
middle of next week.

Aloft a long wave trough with anchoring 484 DAM elongated low
over Banks Island and the eastern north slope extends south and
west to a 502 DAM low over Kodiak Island. The elongated low splits
over northeastern Alaska with a portion of the low remaining over
Banks Island and the western portion closing off as a 492 DAM low
over central Alaska Friday morning. As this upper level low will
be the focal point for light snow generally 1 to 2 inches over
the central and eastern interior as it moves south through the
central interior. The Low over central Alaska moves south to near
Prince William Sound Saturday as another upper level low moves
south through the long wave trough to the north slope Saturday
afternoon. The long wave trough begins to retreat to the north and
east as a large upper level ridge builds north over western
Canada beginning Monday and continuing into the middle of next
week.

On the surface a 990 mb low over the northern Gulf of Alaska
deepens to around 978 mb by Friday morning. The low will drift
slowly north and west to be located over Prince William Sound
Friday night and will weaken and be absorbed by a low moving
northeast out of the northern Gulf of Alaska to near Yakutat
Saturday night. A 1034 mb high will remain in place over Siberia.
The pressure gradient between the the Siberian high and deepening
low in the northern Gulf of Alaska combined with cold temperatures
over the north slope and northern interior have prompted Wind
Chill Advisories over the north slope with wind chill values
expected to drop to between 50 and 60 below and wind chill values
between 40 to 55 below through the passes in the Brooks Range. The
long wave trough continues to drop south over central and eastern
Alaska with 850 mb temperatures over Fairbanks dropping from
around -18 celsius this morning to the 20 to 25 below range Friday
morning to around 25 below Saturday and Sunday mornings. 850 mb
temperatures rapidly moderate to around 14 below monday and 5
below tuesday. Much of the central and eastern interior will drop
to 35 to 45 below Saturday and Sunday mornings with high
temperatures likely to rebound into the 15 to 25 below range
Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures begin to rebound to near
seasonal norms over the central and eastern interior Monday and
will likely remain above normal through the rest of next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ218.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC FEB 17