Brisk Wind Advisory 63, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Issued

Feb 7, 2017, 2:10 PM AKST (23:10 UTC)

Expired

Feb 8, 2017, 3:15 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Fairbanks, AK

971 
FZAK52 PAFG 072310
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
210 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND-WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-081215-
210 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SIBERIA AND EXTENDING EASTWARD
TO THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A 999 MB LOW CURRENTLY 150 NM NORTHWEST 
OF BANKS ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO 992 MB AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 
BE OVER BANKS ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH ONTO THE ARCTIC COAST 
TONIGHT AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-081215-
NORTON SOUND-
210 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-081215-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
210 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-081215-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
210 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-081215-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
210 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CCC FEB 17

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this brisk wind advisory went out at Feb 7, 12:45 PM AKST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1245 PM AKST Tue Feb 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread between model runs and between model families remains
minimal in the short range and is reasonable through the weekend
but large differences exist in the model suite beginning next
week which provides lower forecast confidence past Monday of next
week.

The persistent upper level low at 500 hpa continues to spin over
the eastern Bering Sea approximately 100 nm northwest of Nunivak
Island and will begin to move south and east as it is absorbed
into a developing long wave trough that is rapidly moving south
over the north slope. A strong shortwave moves south over the
north slope tonight and will be the focal point for light snow
over the western north slope and 1 to 3 inches of snow and gusty
winds over the eastern north slope. Strong cold air advection
combined with a barrier jet over the eastern most north slope will
produce low visibilities in snow and blowing snow. A Blizzard
Warning has been issued for the Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast
beginning this evening and continuing through Wednesday evening.
The front weakens rapidly as it moves south over the Brooks Range
and will bring only very light snow or flurries over the
interior.

A very cold air mass will move south over northern Alaska
beginning tonight and Wednesday over the north slope and northern
interior and will move into the southern interior Thursday and
Friday. 850 mb temperatures over Fairbanks this morning was around
5 below celsius and will drop to around 10 below Wednesday
morning and between 15 and 20 below Thursday. Coldest air arrives
over Fairbanks Friday and continues into the weekend with 850 mb
temperatures 25 below Friday morning and between 25 and 30 below
Saturday and around 25 below Sunday morning. 1000 to 500 mb
thickness values will drop to around 492 DM Friday and Saturday.
Surface temperatures over the central and eastern interior will be
significantly below normal with 40s below possible as skies clear
out over the weekend.

Considerable spread on model solutions early next week present a
challenge in forecasting how quickly the interior will warm up
with the GFS generally warmer and faster than the solution
presented by the ECMWF and Canadian models. The hills will likely
warm much faster with either solution with strong inversions
likely to continue over the interior.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240.
&&

CCC FEB 17

Brisk Wind Advisories in Alaska, 2017Every brisk wind advisory in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.