Brisk Wind Advisory 54, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1211 PM AKST Wed Feb 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Some issues with the mid range and extended periods
continue as a shortwave moving around the upper ridge is being
handled quite differently by the models. There is good agreement
and run to run continuity short term. Models initialized well
against the 01/15Z surface analysis.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Long wave trough has moved into Canada. A
565 dam closed high will cutoff from the ridge and move north over
the lower Yukon Delta this evening, and cover most of mainland
Alaska by Thursday afternoon as the center moves over Kotzebue
Sound at 572 dam. The ridge will persist into the weekend as it
weakens to 560 dam and drifts south over the lower Kuskokwim
Delta. A 545 dam low over Kodiak Island will drift south then west
over Dutch Harbor by Thursday afternoon, then northwest into
Siberia by Friday afternoon, then moves northeast to Wrangel
Island by Saturday afternoon, and over the northwest arctic coast
by Sunday morning at 540 dam. At 850 hpa...Temperatures start a
slow warming trend overnight that will see many areas rise to
around zero celsius by Saturday then fall through next Wednesday
to around 20 below celsius.

Surface...1052 mb ridge with center over Allakaket will persist
through the weekend but weakens on Sunday and starts to recede to
the east. A trough will develop over the western interior Sunday
as a 1038 mb high breaks off the ridge and moves west over
Siberia.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Expect winds to increase east of
Deadhorse this evening so will maintain the Blizzard Warning for
the time being. Otherwise, southwest to west winds 10 to 20 mph on
the coast and light winds inland. Temperatures warming slowly the
next couple days as some warm air surges north.

West Coast and Western Interior...Pretty quiet. Some stratus
floating around the area has reduced the ceilings, but expect most
of if to break up this evening. Winds will be light and variable
except on the Bering Strait coast and St Lawrence island where
winds will gust to around 30 mph until the ridge pushes west of
them. Temperatures warming slightly into the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear, light winds, patchy
fog, and temperatures slightly above normal. Some stratus in the
upper Yukon Flats has edged west today to near Ft Yukon, and
in the middle Yukon Valley has moved east into the lower Tanana
Valley from Nenana west. Expect it will start breaking up this
afternoon, but it may become an issue if it does not.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

SDB FEB 17