Brisk Wind Advisory 46, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
152 PM AKST Sat Jan 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Consistency continue for the short term and there is good
agreement into the midrange. Some differences over the arctic in
the extended periods so will lean a bit more toward the ECMWF late
in the extended forecast to get more play out of a shortwave
moving east across the arctic that will impact the arctic coast.
They all initialized well against the 28/18Z surface analysis
with the major features with a couple MB of what was analyzed.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...496 dam low just south of St Lawrence Island
will move over the Island this evening, and over the Chukchi Sea
by Sunday afternoon. A shortwave associated with the low lies
over the southwest mainland and will move north and dissipate this
evening. A second shortwave will swing around the low to be over
Bristol Bay tonight and will lie from Point Lay to Prince William
Sound by late Sunday, and continue north and east to be over the
arctic and Yukon Territory by Monday morning. A 519 dam low will
develop over Prince William Sound tonight and move northeast into
the Yukon Territory by Sunday afternoon. Ridging will build in
over the Southwest mainland Sunday and continue to build north and
move east to be over the Central Interior by Monday morning. A
498 dam low will develop over the western Aleutians Saturday
night and move to the eastern Bering Sea by Monday morning. At
850 hpa...A cooling trend will see temperatures fall 4 to 8
degrees celsius across the area through Monday, then a warming
trend through Wednesday will have temperatures rising 3 to 6
degrees celsius.

Surface...A 982 mb low over Yakutat will move north this evening
into the Yukon Territory as it weakens to 996 mb then merges with
a low over the Northwest Territories. A 992 mb low will develop
over Prince William Sound this evening and move to Yakutat tonight
then dissipate. A 1010 mb high will develop wet of Cook Inlet this
evening and move over the South Central area as it builds to 1019
mb, then over the Copper River Basin Sunday night as it builds to
1032 mb. A 986 mb low will mover north over St Lawrence Island
this evening and into the Chukchi Sea by Sunday morning. A cold
front will drag north over the coast and move into the arctic
Sunday evening. A 983 mb low will develop near the Kamchatka
Peninsula this evening and move to the eastern Aleutians tonight,
into the central Bering Sea Sunday, and to St Lawrence Island by
Monday morning before moving north into the Chukchi Sea Tuesday. A
cold front associated with the low will move to the west coast
Sunday night then drag north over the coast as the low moves
north. Leeside troughing developing north of the Alaska Range
Sunday with strong winds through the Alaska Range developing
Sunday night and persisting into Tuesday morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy conditions with patchy fog
will prevail with a few spits of snow for most of the area. A low
pressure system moving into the Chukchi Sea will bring some
heavier snowfall to the northwest coast and the western Brooks
Range tonight, and then again late Sunday. A low pressure system
moving into the Yukon Territory will spread snow north to the
eastern arctic coast and the eastern Brooks Range Sunday. Winds 5
to 15 mph and mainly east to southeast, the exception will be the
eastern arctic coast. Warming trend will continue through Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Will be relatively active out
west as a series of systems moves through the area. The first is
spreading some snow over the coastal areas this afternoon and will
move north tonight into the Chukchi Sea. Snowfall will be heaviest
in the Bendeleben Mountains on the Seward Peninsula and along the
south slopes of the western Brooks Range with 2 to 5 inches
possible overnight through Sunday afternoon. The next weather
system will move to the coast late Sunday spreading snow over the
coast and into the Western Interior Monday morning. The heaviest
snow will once again be in the Bendeleben Mountains and along the
Brooks Range with up to 10 inches possible. The Nulato Hills will
see significant snow with the second system as well with up to 10
inches possible. Most communities in the area will see 2 to 6
inches of snow. As the low moves into the area expect winds to
kick up as well with gusts to around 50 mph in the lower Yukon
Delta, Norton Sound, the Bering Strait, and Kotzebue Sound. Winds
inland will be gusting to around 30 mph. Blowing snow and fog will
impact visibility at times. Will maintain the Winter Weather
Watches that are currently in place for now. Temperatures not
changing much, but they may warm a bit as the snow moves in, then
start cooling.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow will continue through the
evening, with the heaviest snow from Nenana east, tapering off
overnight as the system moves north. Snowfall amounts in the 2 to
4 inch range for most areas with some heavier amounts to 6 inches
possible in the upper Chena River Basin and White Mountains. Snow
will move out of the northeast interior Sunday afternoon. South
winds picking up through the Alaska Range with gusts to near 50
mph. Over summits north of Fairbanks winds will swing around to
west Sunday morning and gust to around 25 mph. The remainder of
the areas will have variable winds at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures
warming a bit through Sunday then cooling as skies clear Sunday
night.

&&

Coastal Hazards Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

SDB JAN 17