Brisk Wind Advisory 27, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
154 PM AKST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concern will be snow and wind related hazards
across the Interior as well as the Bering Strait and Saint
Lawrence Island. Additionally, cold temperatures coupled with
windy conditions nearby and over eastern Brooks Range will
produce advisory level wind chill values. 13/12Z deterministic
models are in decent agreement through early next week. There are
some subtle differences with details...especially with
temperatures aloft as well as the placement and amount of
precipitation over the interior. Model continuity is good through
the weekend...then becomes poor early to middle of next week.

Aloft...Cold upper level low and associated trough oriented SW to
NE over Alaska will deepen and dig to the southwest through
Sunday then slowly expand east over the eastern Interior early
next week. Colder H850 temperatures have settled across most of
Northern Alaska with the coldest temperatures around -30C over the
Arctic Coastal Plain. Warm southeast return flow will setup over
the eastern Interior tonight and persist through Saturday evening
and again Sunday night and Monday...as weak ridging aloft develops
over the eastern Interior. H850 temperatures will warm and may
flirt with the 0C isotherm over the far southeast by Saturday
afternoon. 13/12Z model solutions are attempting to push colder
H850 temperatures over the western Interior east over the
remainder of the interior Monday night into Tuesday again...but
confidence is low given run to run continuity in regards to
temperatures.

Surface...Low pressure out over the gulf of Alaska will move
towards the AK Gulf coast tonight and then inland tomorrow. A
second low will move north into the Gulf of Alaska Sunday then
proceed northeast in similar fashion to the first low. Over
Siberia, a 1040 ridge of high pressure will remain entrenched with
its eastern periphery over the Bering Strait and western Bering
Sea. As the first low moves towards the coast and inland and the
high pressure builds, the pressure gradient over the Bering Strait
and northern Bering Sea will tighten as well as over the northern
Interior tonight.

West Coast and Western Interior...North winds will gradually ramp
up this evening over the West Coast through Friday with gusts up
to 50 mph possible over Saint Lawrence Island...Bering Strait and
the Chukchi Sea Coast tonight. These strong winds coupled with
a long fetch of open water through and south of the Bering Strait
and cold, arctic air will result in freezing spray developing and
being blown over Savoonga. Snow squalls are also expected to
develop over the open water where a 20 to 25 C difference between
the sea surface temp and cold air aloft...and will bring periods
of low visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Once the ice
expands south towards the island, should see these snow squalls
diminish. Out of these snow squalls, could see 4 to 6 inches of
total snowfall through Saturday afternoon. The winter weather
advisory for the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence Island looks to
be in good shape. Over the Western Interior...will see a cooling
trend develop late this weekend into early next week with lows
approaching 30 to 35 below. Advisory level wind chill values are
expected near the western Brooks Range through Saturday.

Arctic Coast and North Slope...Wind chills are the main forecast concern
as winds and cold temperatures are forecast to persist over the
Brooks Range and vicinity. Ongoing wind chill advisory has been
extended in time for zones 205 and 206 as wind chill values are
forecast to remain between 50 to 55 below and possibly may drop to
near 60 below at times through Sunday. Over the eastern Arctic
Coast...snow will develop late Saturday and continue through
Sunday afternoon...where up to 3 inches of snowfall is possible.
May see some blowing and drifting of snow and lowered visibilities
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Central and Eastern Interior...An active, snowy pattern is
advertised by model guidance through early next week. Snow will
spread north from the Alaska Range and southeastern Interior this
afternoon and evening...and will continue through Saturday evening
before tapering off. Locations south of the Yukon River and from
Manley east will see 4 to 8 inches of snow...with the eastern
Alaska Range forecast to get 15 to 20 inches. Winds will increase
over higher terrain and highway summits...adding the additional
hazard of low visibility due to blowing snow in zones 219...220
and 221...mainly along the Steese, Elliot and Dalton
Highways. Current winter weather advisories and the lone winter
storm warning looks to be in good shape at this time. Will make an
adjustment to winter storm warning to include mention of gusty
winds and blowing snow. Wind chills 45 to 55 below are expected to
persist over the Southeastern Brooks Range through Sunday
afternoon. Another round of snow is possible going into early next
week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ218.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.
&&

LTH JAN 17