Brisk Wind Advisory 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
312 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Models in decent agreement through 60 hours. For the most part,
synoptic features are in step both with track and time.

Deepening upper level trough over Northern Alaska with deep pool
of cold air ready to reinforce already moderately cold air in
place over the area. Expect light snow ahead of the arctic front
as moisture gets lifted. A 504H low will set up over the Arctic
Slope by Thu afternoon.

As cold air settles in over Northern Alaska a couple of scenarios
will likely occur. The first is as the belly of the trough sits in
over southwestern Alaska, this will create southwesterly flow at
upper levels over the eastern half of the state while a moderately
deep surface low pushes north into the Gulf of Alaska. The
associated occluded front will move north and push northwest
across the southeastern portion of the Interior. This will provide
some overrunning snow over the area which could add up to a few
inches in many areas.

As the surface high remains locked in over Far East Russia and the
surface low moves into the Gulf of Alaska, this will create a
tight gradient over much of the West Coast from the Bering Strait
north to Point Hope. This will cause winds to increase smartly
over the West Coast areas to gale by Thursday evening.

Given the very cold temperatures at 850H in the neighborhood of
-24C it is very likely that snow squalls will develop over the
Bering Strait from Saint Lawrence Island north and as well to the
south of the Island.

The winds increasing late Thursday night or early Friday morning
in the Bering Strait will cause freezing spray to develop on
Saint Lawrence Island.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JAN 17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
112 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2017

AKZ213-132215-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales,
and Diomede
112 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2017

...Freezing spray possible for Saint Lawrence Island and the
Bering Strait through the weekend...

Strong northerly winds will continue to increase over Saint
Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait this evening and continue
through the weekend. Strong northerly winds gusting up to 50 mph
combined with a long fetch of open water from about 40 miles west
of Kivalina and south in addition to cold, arctic air will likely
result in freezing spray developing and being blown over
Savoonga. Ice accumulation on electrical lines and electrical
equipment may cause power outages.

Some uncertainty remains in the amount of freezing spray produced
due to sea ice extending further south, possibly south of the
Bering Strait as ice is created with the colder temperatures and
moved into the area with the strong northerly winds. If enough sea
ice growth or coverage extends north of Saint Lawrence Island,
this could reduce the amount of freezing spray.

Additionally, because of the very cold temperatures aloft moving
over the relatively warm ocean surface, snow squalls will develop
and move over Saint Lawrence Island. Some of these squalls could
produce extremely low visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow as
well as possibly limit the amount of ice accumulation from
freezing spray on electrical lines and equipment.

For updates and latest forecasts, go to weather.gov/fairbanks.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
129 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2017

AKZ218>226-140100-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp,
Iniakuk Lake, Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park,
Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids,
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
129 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2017

...More snow on the way for the Central and Eastern Interior...

The previously advertised significant cold spell with temperatures
40 to 50 below over the Interior late this weekend into early
next week is no longer expected to occur. Temperatures will
remain near seasonal normals with lows ranging from 15 to 30 below
and highs 10 to 20 below.

Another round of snow will begin over the southeastern Interior
and eastern Alaska Range Friday morning and then spread north over
the Interior Friday. Periods of snow will continue through
Saturday afternoon before tapering off Saturday evening. Snowfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are forecast south of the Yukon
River and from Manley east with the heaviest amounts of 15 to 20
inches over the eastern Alaska Range. Lesser amounts of 1 to 3
inches is forecast north of the Yukon River and west of Manley.

Gusty northeast winds up to 40 mph and falling snow will create
low visibilities in blowing snow over higher terrain and summits
along the Dalton...Steese and Elliott Highways Friday afternoon
through Saturday afternoon.

Another weather system is forecast to move over the area late
Sunday through Tuesday and will bring more snow to the interior.
Exact snow amounts and timing are still uncertain at this time.

For updates and the latest forecasts go to weather.gov/Fairbanks.